How quickly things can changepublished at 11:13 Greenwich Mean Time 19 January 2022

11:13 GMT 19 January 2022

Nick Watt
Political editor, BBC Newsnight

All can seem fine for a political leader and then, in a flash, they are floored.

Margaret Thatcher was cheered to the rafters at the 1990 Conservative Party conference. Six weeks later she was out.

On Monday supporters of Boris Johnson had a spring in their step as hostile fire seemed to abate. And then on Tuesday a squall blew into Westminster as some Conservative MPs from the 2019 intake started to move against the prime minister.

One senior MP tells me the balloon is about to go up and the threshold for a confidence vote in the prime minister will soon be met. This source says that 54 letters will be sent to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Sir Graham Brady, by today, Thursday or Monday.

Other Tories are not so sure. They believe that threshold for a confidence vote will not be met at least until after the publication of the report into Downing Street parties by the Whitehall troubleshooter Sue Gray.

Image source, EPA

A May 2020 drinks party in the Downing Street garden is at the heart of Boris Johnson's political troubles. Here's why:

What happened?

As many as 100 people were invited to a "bring-your-own-booze" drinks event in Downing Street on 20 May 2020 when lockdown rules in England banned large outdoor gatherings.

Staff were emailed about the "socially distanced drinks in the No 10 garden". Witnesses say Boris Johnson and his wife were among about 30 people who attended.

Why does it matter?

At the time the government was telling people to only meet outdoors with one other person who they didn't live with.

People were separated from dying loved ones, unable to attend funerals or alone during life-changing events as they followed the rules. So the revelation of an organised event involving dozens has provoked fury among MPs and the public.

What has the PM said?

Last week, Johnson admitted he had been at the Downing Street party on 20 May 2020 for about 25 minutes, but believed "this was a work event".

On Tuesday, Johnson "categorically" denied he was warned the party risked breaking lockdown rules.

He made the denial in response to allegations by his former aide, Dominic Cummings, who says he warned Johnson against the party at the time, and has accused him of misleading MPs about it.

Image source, PA Media

Amidst all the rumour and fury, Boris Johnson has been holding a meeting with his cabinet inside No 10 this morning.

The weekly gathering was focused on his plan to liftPlan B Covid restrictions in England.

We understand the PM spoke about people wanting Covid "out of their lives" and that we need to live with the virus.

Johnson also said he hoped we could now move to a place where Covid was not dominating the news agenda anymore.

Well, there are a few other things we are reporting on...

Among those speaking in support of Boris Johnson is Chancellor Rishi Sunak who says he accepts the PM's explanation of a Downing Street drinks party during lockdown in May 2020.

Sunak, whose name is among those tipped as Johnson's potential replacement, yesterday said he believed Johnson's claim that he thought the garden gathering was a work event.

Johnson's former chief aide Dominic Cummings has accused the prime minister of lying to Parliament about the event, claiming he was warned it advance that the party risked breaking Covid rules - something the PM denies.

Adam Fleming
Chief political correspondent

Some of the MPs elected in 2019, who met yesterday to decide whether to submit letters of no confidence in the prime minister, have decided to send them now, according to one of the group.

The MP said that disparaging comments about them by ministers, more experienced MPs and the whips "took them over the edge".

You could call it a backlash to the backlash. And it's more proof that in politics every action has a reaction.

The Bishop Auckland MP Dehenna Davison also whatsapped local campaigners to say that she had been the subject of a "fabricated" smear by Downing Street after some newspapers reported that she had been one of this group's organisers.

The mood within the Conservative party is incredibly tense and rumours abound. The only thing that's certain is that the threshold of 54 MPs required to trigger a vote of confidence has not been reached... yet.

There is a lot of angst around Westminster on whether the PM should stay or go, but what does the wider party think of their leader?

A poll of grassroots Conservative Party members shows Boris Johnson has the lowest approval rating of all the members in cabinet.

Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has the runaway lead when it comes to popularity.

A quick caveat - this poll was taken at the end of December.

But it is hard to believe Johnson's figures will have improved after the past few weeks...

It’s going to be a a busy day in Westminster, so let’s look at some of the key moments in Parliament to be aware of today:

This morning:

09:30: Ministers from Boris Johnson’s cabinet met for a virtual meeting

10:00: MPs start arriving at the House of Commons for Prime Minister’s Questions

11:30: COP26 President Alok Sharma will answer questions in the Commons

This afternoon:

12:00: Johnson will face Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and MPs at Prime Minister’s Questions

12:30: Johnson is expected to deliver a statement on Covid-19 outlining the next steps on Covid restrictions in England

As scrutiny of Boris Johnson’s conduct during Covid lockdowns intensifies, a senior civil servant has been thrust into the national spotlight.

Her name is Sue Gray and, to some MPs, she could bring down Johnson’s government.

That’s because she’s been tasked with investigating alleged Covid rule-breaking parties in Downing Street and government offices.

But her report, which is due to be published soon, is likely to be a largely factual account of any gatherings, and she cannot rule on whether lockdown laws were broken.

The purpose of Gray's inquiry is to establish "a general understanding of the nature" of gatherings that took place and whether any "individual disciplinary action" should be taken.

And if there is evidence a minister has breached the code of conduct, it could be investigated by the prime minister's standards adviser Lord Geidt.

But Catherine Haddon of the Institute for Government think tank says that although Gray may "touch on the role" of the PM, "it isn't [her] place to judge his behaviour".

You can read more about Sue Gray and her inquiry here.

Some Conservative ministers have been speaking out in support of the prime minister this morning, amid claims that further MPs have submitted votes of no confidence in Boris Johnson.

Speaking to the BBC, Defence Minister James Heappey urged his Tory colleagues to show "cool heads", adding now was not the right time for the country to change leader.

He suggests the PM's staff were to blame for a drinks party on 20 May 2020, as Johnson "doesn't really own his own diary" and it is "up to his team to have his back".

Meanwhile, Cabinet Minister George Eustice says he will not be submitting a letter of no-confidence in the prime minister, saying: "He has my support to carry out that important agenda that he was elected to."

Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor

A Tory MP has claimed to the BBC that "around half" of the group of about 20 MPs elected in 2019 have this morning submitted letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson in an attempt to trigger a leadership contest.

The MP says that quotes from ministers that they were "idiots" and "fools" had hardened their attitude, and that some of them were threatened with losing their seats under planned boundary changes last night.

MPs submit their letters secretly so it is impossible to confirm the number that have already been submitted.

Only MP Sir Graham Brady, chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee - who receives and counts up the no-confidence requests - knows the exact number.

But they are required to reach a threshold of 15 percent of the Tory Parliamentary Party, or 54 in this case, before a vote is triggered.

The leader of the Conservatives group on North Tyneside Council has written to Boris Johnson to ask him to consider his position.

Councillor Sean Brockbank tells the BBC the group made the decision "with a heavy heart" after agreeing that "partygate" had impacted their constituents' trust of the PM.

"[The letter] highlighted the fantastic work he's done... but really invited him to consider whether him staying on as leader of the party and as prime minister was in the best interests of the residents of North Tyneside and the party and national community as well," he says.

He says Johnson's insistence that he didn't know the drinks party on 20 May 2020 was not a work event does not "cut the mustard with the residents we serve".

Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor

The meeting of 2019 MPs dubbed “the pork pie plot” by an irritated member of cabinet might sound like something slightly comic, but it is serious.

And there is now a wider question - how many other dominoes may then fall?

In the last week or so, government ministers and the prime minister have been saying, and pleading with people, to wait for the official verdict from the Sue Gray report.

But some of this younger generation - not necessarily in age but in terms of time in parliament - seem to have just lost patience with that.

And it isn’t just them.

Remember in the darkest days for Theresa May, the Conservatives were broadly split in two – Brexiters and Remainers - with clear ring leaders on each side.

But this time it is a really circus of different factions that make the complexity of the picture very hard to read.

It is possible that the number of letters hits the threshold required of 54 in the next couple of days. But it is also possible that the numbers may be miles off.

Whatever happens in the next 48 hours, the consensus that is growing in the Conservative Party is that as every day goes by, Boris Johnson is less likely to be leading them into the general election unless he – sometimes a political Houdini – can pull off his biggest ever political comeback.

Image source, Reuters

Johnson is facing intense speculation about his position amid anger over a number of parties that took place at No 10 while Covid restrictions were in place.

On Tuesday, as Johnson denied being warned about a drinks party in the Downing Street garden in May 2020, a group of MPs elected in 2019 met to discuss submitting letters of no confidence in the prime minister.

The meeting has been dubbed the "pork pie plot", because one of the attendees was Alicia Kearns, who represents Rutland and Melton (home of Melton Mowbray pies).

So far, we know that seven Conservative MPs have stated that they have no confidence in Johnson.

If 54 Tory MPs submit letters to the chairman of a Conservative Party committee, Sir Graham Brady, it would trigger a leadership contest.

One MP told the BBC they thought the threshold could be reached shortly.

But many Conservative MPs want to wait for the findings of a report into gatherings in No 10 and other government buildings before deciding what to do.

Read our full story here.

Hello and welcome to our coverage of the latest fallout from the row over lockdown parties at Downing Street and other government buildings.

We'll be bringing you the latest from Westminster and across the UK as Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces questions in Parliament later.

Stay with us as we follow the twists and turns of what is shaping up to be a day of high political drama.

Here's an update on the latest headlines:

• MPs are expected to grill Boris Johnson about his leadership at Prime Minister's Questions, as pressure over events in Downing Street continues to build
• The cost of living rose at its fastest pace in nearly 30 years in the year to December, official figures show
• Johnson is expected to announce an easing of England's Covid-19 rules when he makes a statement on Plan B in parliament later
• Elsewhere, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a warning to world leaders that the coronavirus pandemic "is nowhere near over"
• And in Ukraine, a senior US diplomat has arrived in the country amid mounting fears that a Russian invasion could be imminent