Tory leadership races can be quite unpredictablepublished at 18:05 British Summer Time 11 July 2022
David Wallace Lockhart
Political correspondent, BBC News
When senior Tories announce the rules for this contest this evening the number of candidates could become smaller quite swiftly, as one key decision will be about a threshold.
At the last leadership election, any candidate needed eight MPs backing them just to get into the first round of voting.
The Tories now have more MPs due to a big general election victory in 2019. There is talk of the number increasing, potentially to around 20.
The idea is that any candidate would have to show they have a serious base of support in the parliamentary party.
If that initial threshold is quite high, some potential candidates may simply be unable to meet it. They’ll be out before they’ve even really begun running in earnest.
Some candidates don’t have close to 20 colleagues backing them yet. But plenty of MPs have yet to declare their allegiance.
It’s important to remember these leadership contests can be unpredictable. Often a candidate who isn’t the favourite can go quite far once things get underway.