Sure-footed - but will economic and Brexit arguments work?published at 10:06 British Summer Time 21 July 2022

10:06 BST 21 July 2022

Chris Mason
Political editor

Liz Truss sounded sure-footed and confident on what she believes in her interview on the Today programme - in contrast with Rishi Sunak’s more hesitant and defensive performance in the same slot last week.

But her critics can and will point out the strength of her convictions now can be contrasted with the strength of rather different convictions in the past — notably on Brexit; she voted Remain in 2016.

But it's her economic convictions she’s determined to frame this contest around. And her analysis of government economic failure was broader this morning than it has been until now.

It was more than a critique of Rishi Sunak — there had been a failure over 20 years, she said, to deliver economic growth.

A few things jump out from this: the Conservatives have been in government for the last 12 of those years; Liz Truss has been in senior government jobs for the last eight.

She's previously criticised the cuts in public spending during David Cameron's time as prime minister.

So what would have been her approach then? More borrowing, as she advocates now? And where does she see the limit of borrowing? These questions matter as the overall coherence of her economic strategy is scrutinised.

Secondly, rooting her critique of the UK’s problems around sclerotic growth is precisely the analysis Keir Starmer is attempting to build too. It is the coming territory of political argument. Who will have the most convincing prospectus?

And a final word on Brexit. After all of the binary anger the rows about it have provoked, it says something about the maturing of the discussion that it is no longer purely about how someone voted six years ago.

Liz Truss - the Remainer turned born-again Brexiteer - has the endorsement of many of the self-appointed defenders of the faith.

The final two in the race to become Conservative Party leader have different Brexit histories - and this could be a major issue in their campaigns.

Rishi Sunak supported the Leave campaign - while Liz Truss backed Remain in the 2016 EU referendum.

Truss told BBC Radio 4's Today programme she's "prepared to admit I was wrong" by backing Remain, saying "some of the portents of doom didn't happen".

So why is that important?

Just 24% of Tory party members backed Remain in the EU referendum, and 76% backed Leave, according to research from Professor Tim Bale, head of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University Party Members Project, external, in January 2020.

So will the majority of Tory members be prepared to back someone who disagreed with them on one of the major policy schisms of the 21st Century?

Image source, Reuters

If you're just joining us, Liz Truss this morning gave her first major broadcast interview since launching her Tory leadership bid.

Here's a rundown of everything you need to know:

'20 years of economic policy haven't delivered growth'

• On the main point which differentiates the final two candidates, Truss claimed her planned tax cuts won't be inflationary - and said they'll help grow the economy instead of "choking off growth by raising taxes"
• She also admitted the UK has had economic policy for 20 years which hasn't delivered, which she wants to resolve. That involves 12 years of Tory rule

'Good under pressure'

• It seems a key theme of Truss's campaign will be her track record of performing under pressure - especially her part in supporting Ukraine through the war
• References to her lengthy and varied government experience - which she has more of than Rishi Sunak - were rife

'I'm my own person'

• The foreign secretary was keen to avoid comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, stating she's "her own person" and from a "very different background" than the former PM

'I was wrong on Brexit'

• Truss said she got it wrong by voting Remain in the 2016 referendum, saying "some of the portents of doom didn't happen"
• But she said she embraced the result and has fought to take advantage of the opportunities

'I wanted Boris to carry on as PM'

• Truss remained loyal to her current boss and said she wanted Boris Johnson to stay on as PM - but respected the decision of the parliamentary party to oust him
• Asked if this allegiance brought her judgement into question, Truss said she judged that the positive side of Johnson's balance sheet "was very positive"

One of the most striking lines from Liz Truss's interview on the Today programme just now was about the last two decades of economic policy.

The Tory leadership candidate has been keen to push her plans to cut taxes if she is elected, to help stimulate the economy.

Her opponent, Rishi Sunak, argues this would fuel inflation, causing further pain for households struggling with spiralling prices.

And when defending her plans, Truss didn't just attack economic policy as managed by Sunak when they served in the same government.

"For the past two decades there has been a consensus on our economic policy and it hasn't delivered economic growth," she said.

That period includes 12 years of Conservative rule under three prime ministers - David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson - and Truss served in all of their cabinets.

Image source, Getty Images

The last question for Liz Truss is about her current boss, Boris Johnson, and whether he should've been allowed to stay on as PM.

She says she "wanted Boris to carry on... he did a great job with the 2019 election, he delivered Brexit, he delivered the vaccines".

Challenged over her loyalty to Johnson, and whether that brings her judgement into question, Truss says the current PM "admitted he made mistakes".

Truss adds that the positive side of Johnson's balance sheet "was very positive".

Liz Truss is asked how she'd deal with the unexpected.

The BBC's Nick Robinson says it was the Iraq War for Tony Blair, the banking crisis for Gordon Brown, Covid for Boris Johnson.

What makes you believe you have the qualities, if the phone rings at 03:00 and you're told China has invaded Taiwan, to deal with that?

She repeats what she said earlier, about her time as foreign secretary and how she's proved she's up to the job. "When the phone did ring at 03:30 and I was told Vladimir Putin had invaded Ukraine, we - the UK - mounted an immediate response with our allies from the free world."

After listing some of the major issues she's been involved in - including "floods, prison riots and the war in Ukraine", Truss adds:

"What I've shown, Nick, is I'm tough under pressure."

More from Liz Truss now, who's moved on to energy bills, which are set to rise again in October.

Asked what she'd do to prevent this, she says she'd first be "honest with people" about the real world situation - and that the government simply can't solve the entire problem.

"What I'd do is reduce energy bills by having a moratorium on the green energy levy," she says. "But also I'd do more to unleash the gas supplies we have in the North Sea."

Now to the issue of tax, which has defined the Tory leadership race so far. Liz Truss makes it "clear" that she opposed the government's decision to hike National Insurance by 1.25% and says she "tried to stop it".

After laying out her plans to cut taxes if elected, Truss says the UK has had economic policy in place for two decades "which hasn't delivered". That period includes 12 years of Conservative rule.

"We've got the highest taxes for 70 years, and we've got lower debt than the US, than Japan, than Canada - no other countries are raising taxes - and the OECD has described our current policy as contractionary," she says, adding this means we'll end up in a recession.

Truss adds that she ultimately wants to increase tax revenues by growing the economy - not "choke off growth by raising taxes".

And when challenged on her tax cuts, which will amount to borrowing millions, she insists they will not be inflationary, instead they'll "decrease inflation", she says.

Image source, Reuters

Some 76% of Conservative Party members - who will choose the next PM - supported Brexit. Liz Truss was a Remainer - and now she is asked by the BBC's Nick Robinson why she changed her mind.

The Tory leadership hopeful says she has now embraced the decision of millions of Britons who voted Leave. On voting Remain, she says: "I was wrong and I am prepared to admit I was wrong."

But she goes on to defend herself, saying she's been one of the key people driving change and opportunities that came about because of Brexit.

Challenged on her conviction as an MP, and whether she'll simply "unsay" what she's saying now in six months' time, Truss says she's developed her ideas as a politician throughout her life.

"When I make a promise, I'll deliver it," she says.

For context, there's been some talk about her time as a Lib Dem while at university.

And it's clear her rival, Rishi Sunak, sees her changing positions as a weakness. At the recent ITV debate, he asked her which she regretted more - being a Lib Dem, or being a Remainer.

In her Today interview, Truss pushes back on the suggestion she's modelling herself on former PM Margaret Thatcher.

Truss says she's "her own person", from a "very different background", before referencing the fact she went to a comprehensive school and "grew up in Yorkshire" (unlike Thatcher, who grew up in Lincolnshire).

It comes after photographs went viral last week, showing Truss wearing an almost identical white silk shirt to one Thatcher once wore.

Image source, Getty / PA

Let's hear from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss now, who's speaking to the BBC in her first major broadcast interview since the Tory leadership contest began.

Asked if anything scares her about potentially being the UK's next prime minister, she says she's held her current position for eight months in which times she's shown she "can be tough... stands up to aggressors, and gets stuff done".

"That's why I want to do the job," she goes on, "we need somebody with the grit who's ready to take on Whitehall and drive-through change."

Chris Mason
Political editor

The race to be our next prime minister is now broadening and slowing down. Well, just a little bit.

The daily democratic process involving 350-something Conservative MPs is done. Now it widens to 160,000-ish Conservative Party members.

As things stand, the polls and surveys and hunches among many at Westminster suggest that Liz Truss is the favourite - because of Rishi Sunak's approach to tax and his contribution to the downfall of Boris Johnson.

But Team Sunak hope the more party members see of him and her the more they may realise he is their better option.

And so the persuading of them begins.

Now the final two have been decided, what happens next?

Hustings for members of the Conservative Party will be held around the country.

The winner will be announced on Monday 5 September after a postal ballot, completed by 160,000 Tory party members.

The final two candidates have agreed to take part in a head-to-head debate on the BBC on Monday 25 July and a second appearance on Sky on Thursday 4 August.

Amid predictions of a bitter contest ahead, the papers have been sizing up the chances of Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.

In an article in the Daily Mail, external, Truss pledges to hold an emergency budget to immediately reverse the recent national insurance rise and suspend the green levy on energy bills. She says the party has been going in the wrong direction on tax and promises to be "a true tax-cutting, freedom-loving Conservative".

In a piece for the Daily Telegraph, external, Sunak says he respects his rival and agrees with her that tax cuts are ultimately needed for economic growth. The paper says the language represents a softening , externalof his criticism of Truss.

Most papers say Truss is seen as the front-runner. The Financial Times says she starts as the "slim favourite", while the Telegraph says it is "advantage Truss", external.

The Times highlights opinion polls suggesting that she is nearly 20 points ahead among Conservative members. The paper says Sunak faces an uphill struggle, external.

There's almost unanimous expectation that the contest will be brutal. The Independent website predicts a "summer of vicious infighting", external, while the Guardian says the Conservatives are braced for "a blue on blue dogfight", external.

The Sun says , externalthere will be "blue on blue bloodshed". The Telegraph says Sunak's side will target Truss over her decision to vote to remain in the EU and what critics have dubbed her "stilted communication style", external. According to the Times, allies of Truss will launch personal attacks , externalon Sunak, blaming him for high inflation and accusing him of disloyalty to Boris Johnson.

According to the i newspaper, there is a great deal of anger , externalamong Conservative Party members that Penny Mordaunt didn't make it into the final two.

Jonathan Blake
BBC political correspondent

Rishi Sunak was the front runner throughout several rounds of voting among MPs, but after a late surge of support, Liz Truss enters this phase of the race as the bookies' favourite.

In a campaign video, Sunak acknowledged he was starting from behind.

The former chancellor insists he is best placed to beat Labour at the next general election though, and writing in the Daily Telegraph promised reforms as radical as those driven through by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.

Ms Truss, writing in the Daily Mail, said the contest was a choice between going for growth and cutting taxes or what she called business as usual managerialism.

Economic policy's likely to be the main battleground as the pair slog it out over the summer to win over the party’s 160,000 or so members.

Image source, .

A survey of 725 Conservative Party members - carried out before Penny Mordaunt was knocked out - indicates former chancellor Rishi Sunak could lose the race to be the next PM, despite coming top among his fellow Tory MPs.

The survey, conducted by polling firm YouGov, external, suggests Foreign Secretary Liz Truss would beat Sunak by 54% to 35% in a head-to-head contest (the remaining 11% were "don't know").

It also suggests Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt would have won by 51% to 37% if she and Sunak had been the final pair.

But remember - a lot can change between now and 5 September, when the result is due.

In the fifth round of voting by Tory MPs yesterday Rishi Sunak maintained his record of coming first in the poll, with 137 MPs backing him.

Penny Mordaunt had been the second-placed candidate for the previous four votes. But she fell at the final hurdle as MPs rallied behind Liz Truss, who received 113 votes, just eight more than Mordaunt.

So Mordaunt is out, and Truss joins Sunak in the final two.

Image source, .

Thanks for joining our politics coverage as the final two candidates in the Conservative leadership contest – Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former chancellor Rishi Sunak – begin setting out their pitches to win over party members.

Truss and Sunak’s first head-to-head engagement will come later today at a hustings - where candidates in an election address voters - run by the Conservative Councillors Association.

Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day.