Sam Hancock
BBC News

Back to our voter panel. The third member is Paul Hodgson, a 60-year-old bus driver from Bishop Auckland. He previously voted for the Brexit Party but hasn't yet decided who he wants to be the next Tory leader.

He says Rishi Sunak is “the closest thing to what we've got now but it's about deciding whether that's a good thing or not”.

Looking back at the UK’s last two female PMs, Paul says Liz Truss will inevitably be compared with them.

The question for him is: "Will she be walked all over in the way Mrs May was or will she stand up for herself like Mrs Thatcher did?”

‘What’s swaying me towards Sunak is his realism’

Last but by no means least is 60-year-old Daphne Quinn, a café owner from Barrow in Cumbria. She’s a long-term Conservative Party member and while she’s leaning towards Sunak, she hasn’t yet decided who she’ll vote for over the summer leadership contest.

After begrudging Sunak for “clearly going after Boris Johnson’s job” – and doing so “at an appalling time” – Daphne says she respects the former chancellor’s pledges so far on tax.

“I won’t go as far as saying honesty but that’s what is swaying me towards him: his realism,” she tells me, adding that she thinks he'll end up being "a bit of a hardliner".

On Truss, Daphne believes the foreign secretary “won’t command enough from a world perspective”.

Speaking to the BBC's PM programme a short while ago, Lord Maude, the former Conservative Party chair, said that Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak would do well to "remember it's generally an error to trash the brand".

Lord Maude criticised the current tone of the debate between the two candidates, saying that it has sometimes "seemed like a race over who can sound more right-wing, as if that's the only game in town."

"One [of the candidates] is obviously going to win the leadership, but if the behaviour of the teams and their language has been uncontrolled and it's damaged the party's standing or the way people see the party, it could end up being a Pyrrhic victory," Lord Maude said.

Lord Maude added that he hoped Truss, Sunak and their supporters "reflect and concentrate more on showing why they are the best person to be the PM of this country" and not just about "how they can beat the opponent."

"People's impressions will be formed by how they behave in this leadership election" and which one of the two is better placed to eventually beat Labour.

Sam Hancock
BBC News

Next up from our debate panel is Vikas Hathi, a 46-year-old accounts assistant who's supporting Liz Truss. He used to be a Tory Party member but is now an undecided voter.

On both candidates

Vikas says his main reason for backing Truss - and not Rishi Sunak, whose family are of Indian descent - is he "doesn't think the UK is ready for an Indian prime minister".

He's of Indian background himself and says he's worried about enduring racism in the country.

On trust in the government

Vikas, who lives in north-west London, also says there's an issue with trust in the Conservative government at the moment. "The Tories have been in government for 12 years - and a lot of people used to trust them - but at the moment it feels like public trust is getting further away and the question is who the public will vote for in a general election," he says.

With that in mind, he reckons Truss is more likely to carry the Tories to another election win than Sunak is.

Sam Hancock
BBC News

Let's hear from the first of our panel members now. Chloe Ahmed, who's 33 and has been a member of the Conservative Party for 15 years, is supporting Rishi Sunak.

The skincare and aesthetics worker from Chelmsford, Essex, admits she wouldn't have chosen either of the final two if she'd been one of the MPs who selected them – she'd have gone for Penny Mordaunt (who was knocked out at the last voting round).

On Sunak

Despite the "baggage" she says Sunak has - making reference to his wife’s heavily-scrutinised tax affairs and the fact he broke Covid laws - Chloe believes he and Boris Johnson "did a really good job together over the last couple of years".

"That's why I'd stand behind him because I can give him that trust," she says, adding that he's running a very smart campaign, compared to what she described as Truss's "dire" one.

On Truss

It turns out the suggestions that Truss is trying to model herself on Margaret Thatcher has had an impact on Chloe. She says she can't trust a candidate who's "mimicking" another leader. "If you're willing to completely change your fashion sense to fit in... what else have you changed to fit in with how you want people to see you?".

She goes on: "I feel like Liz has always been a jack of all trades but a master of none… [and] that's not what I'm looking for in our next prime minister."

We've asked a group of people – from different areas of the country, with varied voting intentions – to watch tonight’s debate between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss and let us know their thoughts before and after.

In the next few posts, we'll lay out who some of the panel members are, what they've said so far, and where their minds are at before the Tory leadership contenders take to the stage in Stoke-on-Trent.

Image source, PA Media

The chancellor and former leadership hopeful Nadhim Zahawi has been weighing in on the contest, saying that people "don't vote for teams that are divided".

Speaking on a visit to Darlington, he called for harmony in the Tory party once the contest was over, saying that "people will support teams that are united".

We're waiting for tonight's nationally-televised leadership debate, and it's worth reflecting on how they can change a candidate's fortunes.

Before 2010, the idea of live TV debates during UK general elections had been much discussed – but they had not happened. During that campaign there were three involving Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg.

Sean Kemp was an adviser to Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, and has told The Times’s Red Box podcast the vast majority of people had never heard of him. But by the end of the first debate, watched by an audience of more than 10 million, Cleggmania was a thing. Overnight “I agree with Nick” became a catchphrase.

Kemp recalls everyone around the leader realised the debates presented a huge opportunity for him to break through with the public. And so huge efforts were made to prepare him. Mock debates were held with senior Lib Dems playing Brown and Cameron. Each one was recorded, there was feedback, and then everyone involved watched it again at home to get the viewers’ experience.

As a result of these many hours of preparation, Kemp says Clegg learned to look straight down the camera. It might be cheesy, but it worked with large parts of the audience.

Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries' own spending is coming under scrutiny after she praised Liz Truss for apparently wearing £4.50 earrings from budget jewellery chain Claire's Accessories, drawing a contrast with a £3,500 suit and £450 Prada shoes that Rishi Sunak is said to have worn.

Dorries has previously said she is fond of expensive jewellery and clothing. In 2007, she told The Guardian, external that she is happy to wear "cheaper clothes but there are things I will not compromise on, like my £6,000 diamond earrings".

Dorries' comments have been condemned by some of her fellow Tory MPs. Cabinet Officer minister Johnny Mercer criticised the "puerile" and "embarrassing" nature of the leadership contest. Guildford MP Angela Richardson, gave a terse reply, external and tweeted that she was muting Dorries, meaning she won't see Dorries' tweets.

Polls show Truss is clear frontrunnerpublished at 16:28 British Summer Time 25 July 2022

16:28 BST 25 July 2022

Image source, .

It’s accepted by both sides that Liz Truss is out in front in this leadership contest and Rishi Sunak is trailing behind.

Several polls from YouGov and Conservative Home all point in the same direction.

Team Sunak make the argument the gap isn’t necessarily as wide as some of the polls suggest and there’s a good number of undecided Conservative members.

But the gap is there and it looks pretty significant and consistent.

Team Sunak's hopes going into the debate tonight, in the words of one of their team, is the general public don’t have a vote but they do have a say.

In other words they hope their pitch will be their candidate is more appealing to the wider electorate, and that may be reflected in opinion polls afterwards, hoping for a shift within the party.

Image source, Jeff Overs, BBC

The stage has been set for tonight's leadership debate between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.

The debate, set in Victoria Hall in Stoke-on-Trent, will be broadcast on BBC One, iPlayer and BBC Radio 5 Live at 21:00 BST. You'll also be able to watch and follow along on this page.

Image source, Jeff Overs, BBC

George Bowden
Reporting from Stoke-on-Trent

Let’s take a more detailed look at the location for tonight’s BBC leadership debate:

• Stoke-on-Trent formed through a collection of six Staffordshire towns and has been a city since 1925

• There were 258,400 residents across 110,400 households at the 2021 Census

• Its main industries are construction, transport and storage, retail, and science and technical services, according to ONS business data

• The constituency of Stoke-on-Trent North changed hands to the Conservatives at the 2019 election – it had been represented by Labour or Labour/Co-op since 1950

• The constituency of Stoke-on-Trent Central also changed hands to the Conservatives in 2019 – after similarly returning a Labour MP since 1950

• Stoke-on-Trent South turned blue in 2017 – represented by Jack Brereton, one of Parliament’s youngest MPs at 31

Either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will be chosen by Conservative Party members as the new prime minister.

So who are the members?

We don't know exactly how many members the party has - because they won't tell us - but it is around 160,000, or about 0.3% of the total UK electorate.

Like members of the other major parties, Tories tend to be older, more middle class and more white than the rest of the population.

Professor Tim Bale, head of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University Party Members Project, external, says: "The people who get to choose our next prime minister are far from being representative of voters as a whole.”

In 2017, the average age of Conservative party members was 57, Labour 53, Lib Dems 52 and SNP 54, according to Commons library research, external. All the main parties have relatively few black and minority ethnic members.

According to a 2018 report by Tim Bale's team, external, 97% of Conservative members were "white British", compared with 96% for Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Read more here.

Image source, Jonathan Hordle/ITV

Tom Tugendhat - who was knocked out of the Tory leadership race earlier in the contest - says he would happily work in the cabinet of either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss if invited.

"I would serve any Conservative leader who asked me to, because it's about serving the country and serving the British people," the Tonbridge MP tells BBC Radio 4's World at One programme. "It would be a privilege to do so."

He says he's hopeful that tonight's debate focuses on "ideas rather than personalities".

Boris Johnson's spokesman has responded to efforts reportedly being made to keep the current prime minister in No 10.

Johnson's supporters claim around 10,000 party members have signed a petition calling for his name to be added to the leadership ballot.

"You heard the prime minister say his farewell address to Parliament," his spokesman says. "He gave advice for his successor.

"Beyond that, obviously I can't comment on what the prime minister may choose to do once he ceases to be prime minister," he adds.

Johnson caused speculation over his political future during last Wednesday’s valedictory address, saying: “Mission largely accomplished – for now”.

He closed the speech with the words “hasta la vista, baby”, quoting Terminator 2. But he stopped short of using another famous catchphrase from the film franchise: “I’ll be back”.

David Brown
Visual Journalism Team

Betting odds on the two candidates have stabilised since the end of last week.

Here's how they look now:

Image source, .

Liz Truss is now leading Rishi Sunak by a significant margin, according to the bookmakers.

Sunak led the race in the days following Boris Johnson's resignation.

But Truss took the lead after Kemi Badenoch was knocked out of contention last Tuesday.

Faisal Islam
BBC Economics Editor

Tory leadership hopefuls Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss need to set out how they plan to conquer inflation, avoid recession and help the public through a record fall in disposable income.

I'm highlighting here three questions every member of the public will want an answer to as they hit the campaign trail:

What will you do to help my energy bill?

Billions of pounds of support is already being given out to households, especially low income ones. But, since that help was announced, it's become clear bills will rise even further than originally expected

How will you help increase my pay?

Both candidates for prime minister seem concerned that if wage settlements go above 5% that could prompt a spiral of rising wages and prices, locking in high inflation for years.

What are you going to do for my pension?

State pensions are due to go up by 10% in April as a result of the restoration of the "triple lock" policy, which guarantees the recent surge in inflation is reflected in pensioners' incomes. This will kick in, even if inflation has fallen back by then.

Read more here

Jonathan Blake
BBC political correspondent

Image source, Jonathan Hordle/ITV/PA Wire

If it continues as it has done, then tonight's debate could get pretty feisty, fiery and even nasty between the two candidates.

There were some relatively personal and pointed exchanges between all the candidates in the contest's previous TV debates.

These clashes weren't just about policy but were also over the character, upbringing and background of all the candidates.

We've seen that continue to play out in the last few days between Sunak and Truss's campaigns - those supporting either candidate at times putting out pretty vicious briefings.

There is some concern in the Conservative Party about the tenor of the debate and the nature of this contest so far.

Some are calling for it to cool off and for the discussion to be a bit more civilised.

Rishi Sunak has taken a swipe at his leadership rival Liz Truss for declining to take part in a live interview on Channel 4 this Friday with political journalist Andrew Neil.

Sunak quote tweeted the Channel 4 announcement about his interview, taking aim at Truss by writing: "Just me then?"

Louisa Compton, head of news and current affairs and specialist factual and sport at Channel 4, said: "After the success of our first audience debate we're delighted that Rishi Sunak has confirmed he will be interviewed by Andrew Neil on Channel 4.

"We hope that Liz Truss also now agrees - and allows the British public to better understand what she stands for."

Ahead of tonight's BBC leadership debate it has emerged that Rishi Sunak will be interviewed live on Channel 4 this Friday by Andrew Neil.

The former chancellor has agreed to appear on The Andrew Neil Show, which airs at 19:30 BST

His rival Liz Truss has so far declined to take part, Channel 4 said.

Brian Wheeler
BBC News

Image source, Getty Images

Social media is a key battleground in any election - even one with a very small electorate.

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are using two very different campaigning styles to try to win over the Tory members who will choose the next PM.

The glossy "origin story" video, external Sunak used to launch his leadership campaign on Twitter - in which he talked about how his mother came to the UK in the early 1960s "armed with hope for a better life" - has been viewed more than 8 million times.

Liz Truss's launch film, external is an attempt to project her as an international stateswoman. There is little about her own back story, and no spontaneous "behind the scenes" footage.

One similarity between the two candidates is their desire to be on first name terms with the electorate with campaign slogans Liz for Leader; and Ready for Rishi, an attempt to emulate Boris's first name appeal.

Read more on the rival candidates' social media strategy.