Image source, Reuters

It is clear whoever takes over as prime minister will be have to announce how they will help people with soaring energy prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Wholesale gas prices in the UK and Europe have risen sharply this morning, following Friday's news the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany would be suspended indefinitely.

The benchmark gas delivery contract for October rose jumped as much 26% on Monday morning, but dropped back afterwards.

The rise follows the market's first chance to trade following the decision to shut down the crucial pipeline over claims from Russian state-run gas firm Gazprom that maintenance was needed on an oil leak.

Flows through the pipeline had already been dramatically reduced form normal levels in recent weeks.

European ministers have accused Russia of weaponizing gas supplies by deliberately restricting exports to Europe in the run-up to winter, in order to push up coasts for consumers and businesses.

Wholesale gas prices have been extremely volatile recently, falling sharply last week when Germany announced its storage facilities were filling up faster than expected - but are still over five times higher than the same time a year ago.

Even though the UK imports very little gas from Russia, the rapid rise of global prices raises costs for the UK and many other countries who import energy, regardless of the source.

Read more here.

Two Tory MPs, one backer of each candidate for the Conservative Party leadership and next PM, have reflected on the need for party unity once the successor to Boris Johnson is revealed.

Rishi Sunak supporter Kevin Hollinrake tells BBC News the most important thing for his colleagues to do going forward is to "rally round the new prime minister".

But he refuses to be drawn on whether he expected Sunak to lose later.

Asked if the former chancellor will stay in politics if he isn't successful, Hollinrake says he is sure Sunak will remain in Parliament after proving his "ability to innovate and execute" in the Treasury, adding: "We need that kind of talent in government".

Alec Shelbrooke, who's supporting the favourite Liz Truss, says there is a "real appetite" in the party for unity going forward to address the many issues facing the UK.

He adds he is "expecting quite a wide range of announcements" of support beyond just extra money for individuals, repeating hints a cap on wholesale energy prices might be introduced.

Ione Wells
Political Correspondent, BBC News

Image source, Reuters

Rishi Sunak’s supporters are all but conceding he isn’t going to win this contest, but do argue it will be "closer than people think".

But what would constitute a "close" result?

Boris Johnson won his leadership contest in 2019 with 66.4% of the vote. David Cameron won his in 2005 with 67.6% and Iain Duncan Smith took 60.7% in his 2001 leadership victory.

So, anything under 60% will likely be marked down as closer than expected.

Liz Truss will want to be able to confidently demonstrate she has a strong mandate from the membership, if not yet from the country in an election.

Especially given, even at the end of the contest, only 11 more Tory MPs were publicly backing her compared to Rishi Sunak with dozens still undeclared.

Turnout will be something to watch too. The 2019 contest saw a high turnout of Tory members – 87.4%.

Anecdotally, some young Conservative groups in particular tell me some of their members weren't thrilled by either candidate in the race.

How close this result is matters because one of the challenges for the next prime minister will be trying to stitch the party back together after months of infighting – and a campaign that saw MPs and members divided between two candidates with two very different visions for the economy.

Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been pictured arriving at Downing Street for his final day in the job.

He succeeded Theresa May in 2019 - 1,139 days ago.

Tomorrow both Johnson and the new leader of the Conservative Party will travel to Balmoral to meet the Queen for the official handover of power.

Image source, PA Media

Chris Mason
Political editor

A few weeks ago, Liz Truss travelled to Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat in Buckinghamshire, for an afternoon of talks with Boris Johnson about the role of PM.

On his final full day as prime minister, Johnson will today speak to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the telephone.

Downing Street also anticipates further resignations from the government, from ministers who do not expect to be part of Truss's administration.

Image source, PA Media

Whoever wins the contest today will take office as PM tomorrow.

So, what is it like when someone discovers they are prime minister?

One man who does know is Lord O'Donnell who was the Cabinet Secretary between 2005 and 2011.

He was there to greet David Cameron when he became prime minister in 2010.

"People are forgetting the passion," he told Radio 4's Today Programme. "This is an incredibly exciting day for that person coming through the door at Number 10 it is the highlight of their career.

"It may be the biggest moment of their lives."

As we've been reporting Liz Truss is widely tipped to win the Conservative leadership race and Lord O'Donnell believes one of her biggest challenges will be to unite the party.

"It has been quite a divisive leadership campaign," he adds. Given "she wasn't the first choice of her MPs", she will need to try and unite them, he says.

"That is why the choice of her cabinet will be crucial, it has got to be the most talented and it's got to work for the Conservative Party as a whole."

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, PA Media

At 12:27 this afternoon, in private, Liz Truss will be told she will be our next prime minister.

Rishi Sunak will be told he has lost.

Ten minutes later, at 12:37, after a short speech from the Conservative Party Chairman Andrew Stephenson, the Chairman of the Conservative 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady will publicly announce the result.

How can we be so certain of the outcome? There would, after all, be the biggest omelette of all time plastered across the faces of people like me if Sunak were victorious.

Well, no one seriously believes the result will be any different.

Throughout the summer, Truss has had a commanding lead in the opinion polls. So commanding, even if those polls were a bit wrong, it wouldn't change the outcome.

Team Sunak don't dispute this, although some supporters do think his margin of defeat may be narrower than some of those polls have suggested.

So what happens next?

After the result, we will hear a short speech from Truss.

And then at 13:00 - in other words about ten minutes later - what was described to me as "onboarding" begins in Downing Street.

In other words, Team Truss start turning up to make sure they can log onto computers etc.

The prime minister-elect, as Liz Truss will be by then, will have another day to wait until she turns up.

Image source, PA Media

More now from Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who's tipped to become chancellor if Liz Truss wins the leadership contest, as is widely expected.

He has confirmed that a Liz Truss government would borrow more to help people through what he's called "exceptionally difficult times" this winter as energy prices soar.

Writing in the Financial Times, external, he says: "Given the severity of the crisis we face, there will need to be some fiscal loosening to help people through the winter."

He also sought to reassure markets that the UK has space to borrow more and that it would be done in a “fiscally responsible way”, while adding that the focus will be on "unlock[ing] investment and growth".

"Forecasts are not destiny. The coming months will be difficult, there is no question," Kwarteng writes.

"She will reject the failed consensus and deliver opportunity, prosperity and hope for the future to put the UK's best days ahead of us."

Chris Mason
Political editor

I am told Liz Truss's team have been working on a support package for energy bills "for weeks" – and that an announcement on what they will do is pencilled in for Thursday of this week.

There have been what were described to me as "very active discussions" with "all the major oil and gas producers."

"Lots of measures have been considered, some have progressed and some have not," a source said.

Her team don't deny they might introduce a freeze on energy bills.

I'm told the current chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi, who is expected to also be in Liz Truss's government, but in a different role, was involved in conversations with industry leaders about the plan on a recent trip to the United States.

"The contest is ending today, but it ended three weeks ago for Liz," a source said -- with the emphasis then switching to planning for government.

Derek Lickorish, chairman of the pay-as-you-go energy supplier Utilita, tells the BBC that there should "absolutely" be a freeze on the energy price cap. If one is not implemented, "the economy is going to crash, the consumers won't know what to do or where to turn to for help - this is such uncharted territory".

"All we can do at the moment is hope that we can freeze [the price cap] at 1 October because at the moment customers cannot cope with the last increase on 1 April," says Likorish, noting that customer calls have gone up 140% as people call "in a desperate situation".

Likorish remarks that during the 2008 banking crisis, Gordon Brown made £500bn available to bail out the banks and "it's now time the government bailed out energy customers, both domestic and business".

"If this is what we're going to do, this is going to cost £60-100bn to freeze prices for all customers for about 12 months," Likorish adds.

We all have a say in a general election, but when there’s a change in leadership while a party is already in power, it's that party that chooses who leads the country.

Under Conservative Party rules, Tory party members chose which of the final two contenders take the crown.

So it's worth asking, who are the Conservative members?

We don't know exactly how many there are - because the party won't tell us - but it’s around 160,000, or about 0.3% of the total UK electorate.

Like members of the other major parties, Tory members also tend to be older, more middle class and more white than the rest of the population.

Want to know how we got here? If there will be a general election now or not? How we got to Rishi v Liz, and who is actually prime minister today?

We have your most frequently asked questions covered in this explainer.

On the issue of a possible freeze on bills, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, MP and treasurer of the 1922 Committee, told the BBC: "We don't yet know how long the spike in energy prices is going to go on - it may be that we need to provide this year and next year.

"We are in a very difficult situation and the new PM will need to consider very carefully what they do and how much they are prepared to allow the national debt to increase.

"I personally would target any help specifically towards those on very low incomes and greatest need rather than the help across the entire nation.

"The problem with freezing bills for domestic customers is that commercial customers would end up paying even more and I foresee lots of businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, actually ceasing to trade this winter."

Sebastian Payne, the Whitehall editor for the Financial Times, told the BBC that the foreseen result has been clear for "about a month" and that "not much has happened in this contest for the whole of August".

"People in both camps this morning are expecting results to be around the 60% mark for Liz Truss," he added.

"If it was lower than that, then there would start to be questions over her authority in the party. If it was Rishi Sunak, it would probably be the biggest upset since the Brexit referendum."

Also speaking to the BBC, Andrew Woodcock, The Independent's political editor, said that "normally, a new PM gets a honeymoon period - this one will be walking straight into a hurricane".

"There are people facing destitution, businesses facing closures - we need a solution very, very quickly," he said.

He added that as soon as the new PM takes over there is going to have to be an "abrupt change of tone" as he or she will have to talk to the country and not just "small selectorate" of the Tory party members, as has been the case until now, Woodcock added.

Faisal Islam
BBC Economics Editor

The favourite to become new Chancellor, the current Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, has said a Liz Truss government will borrow more to help people this winter through "exceptionally difficult times" during the energy price shock.

BBC News understands a freeze on bills is on a menu of options that has been worked up in Whitehall to help struggling households.

Industry sources are increasingly optimistic that the government will back its plan to freeze the energy cap.

Truss did not rule out a freeze when asked by the BBC yesterday. But there is still some lack of clarity about how it would be funded.

A published version of the industry plan suggested that to hold down this year’s energy payments at £2,000 for a typical household, future bills would have to repay the money.

That would leave payments not far off that level into the next decade, and require a fund of around £90bn.

For several weeks now, Liz Truss has been the pollsters' favourite to win the leadership contest.

In mid-August, YouGov announced that Liz Truss had a lead over Rishi Sunak by 66% to 34% in members' poll.

This seems to be backed by betting sites. This morning, betting aggregator Oddschecker puts Truss' chances of becoming the next PM at 1/100, versus Sunak's 33/1.

Image source, Reuters

By now you'll know there are two candidates left in the battle to become the next PM.

You might even recognise their faces - but how much do you know about them?

Rishi Sunak

• The UK's former chancellor, until his out-of-the-blue resignation put Boris Johnson’s leadership on the ropes
• The face of the furlough scheme during the Covid pandemic
• Alongside his former boss, Sunak was fined by police for breaking lockdown rules in Downing Street in June 2020
• A teetotal millennial millionaire with an heiress wife whose tax affairs were recently put under the spotlight
• He has run on a platform of sorting out the economy

Liz Truss

• The UK's current foreign secretary - didn’t resign during the cabinet mutiny that took down Boris Johnson
• Bookies' favourite for Downing Street
• To draw a contrast to Sunak, she's made much of having attended a state school
• She used to be a member of the Lib Dems and once called for the monarchy to be abolished
• She campaigned for Remain, but now says Brexit is a good thing

Most of Monday's newspapers carry stories on Liz Truss' likely victory of the leadership constest - and her promise to "act immediately" over the cost-of-living crisis.

The Financial Times , externalsays Kwasi Kwarteng, who is tipped to be the next chancellor, has launched what it calls a "pre-emptive bid to reassure markets", that Truss will not "blow a hole" in the public finances.

The i newspaper , externalcalls Liz Truss the "PM-in-waiting" and says it has been told by a former Cabinet minister that she is set to rein in public spending to pay for extra support.

The Daily Telegraph, external is reporting that energy bills could be frozen for millions of household this winter, as Truss' campaign sources and energy company insiders who have been consulted tell the paper that a freeze in some form is expected.

And The Guardian , externalsays the likely prime minister will press ahead with plans for the UK to be a low-tax economy, with less focus on wealth redistribution.

Nick Eardley
Chief political correspondent

There aren’t many people around Westminster predicting anything other than Liz Truss being named the new prime minister today.

Even Rishi Sunak's closest allies talk of him not losing by much, rather than winning.

If Truss is named the victor just before lunchtime, one issue will define her early weeks in power: the cost of living.

She is planning a significant intervention this week, where tens of billions will be committed to helping with rising bills and inflation. That will include tax cuts and help for families and businesses.

Expect her to also talk about an energy strategy to protect the UK against further turbulence in years to come.

After weeks of talking to Conservative members, the new prime minister will have to start talking to the country immediately. And the stakes are high, for voters worries about their bills most of all. But also for the Conservative Party, worried about its future.

As one senior Tory put it to me last night: "If we get energy right, Starmer is beatable. If we don’t, we’re out."

BBC News has been told that a menu of options has been worked up in Whitehall to help struggling households, including a freeze on energy bills.

Industry sources are increasingly optimistic that the new prime minister will back plans to freeze the energy cap, the maximum price for domestic gas and electricity set every three months by regulator Ofgem.

This would not necessarily require upfront government financing at the beginning, BBC News economics editor Faisal Islam reported.

It follows multiple meetings with government, including ministers close to Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

Truss, tipped by pollsters to win the contest, has promised to announce further help to shield consumers within a week of taking over.