Sturgeon vows not to give up on independence

1. Analysis and reaction as Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg is in Aberdeen where the SNP is holding its conference
2. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says she's confident next year's planned independence referendum will go ahead
3. She tells the programme she will not give up on Scottish democracy, despite Westminster opposition to indyref2
4. Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries urges Liz Truss to consult Tory MPs on the way forward for their party, as polls show it's lagging behind Labour
5. Meanwhile, cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi says blackouts are extremely unlikely this winter because of the measures the government has taken

Thanks for joining us

That's it from the Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg team - if you want to circle back you can watch the whole programme on the iPlayer.

As ever, you can read more on our politics page, and there'll be more coverage from the SNP conference in Aberdeen on our Scotland pages.

Today's team were Rob Corp, Chris Giles, Craig Hutchison, Emma Owen and Mattea Bubalo.

What about the Conservatives?

Laura Kuenssberg

Presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg

Reuters

In terms of the Tories' woes, cabinet ministers like Nadhim Zahawi have been filling column inches and airtime trying to call for unity.

But the voices of disquiet are loud, and proud. Former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries this morning explained at length why in her view, Prime Minister Liz Truss has to change direction and drop some of the plans that she wants to pursue.

She claimed she does still back the PM despite going very public with her concerns - but behind closed doors it is hard to find a Conservative MP who feels cheerful about the parties' prospects.

Dire polling, economic turmoil and infighting makes up a brutal background for the governing party when it returns to Westminster next week.

And what of Dorries' old pal? Yup, Boris Johnson?

Well she didn't quite rule out him making a return.

Plenty of very unlikely things have come to pass in the last few years in politics. The comeback to beat all comebacks does not seem remotely likely, but the depth of the crash in the government's popularity under Liz Truss didn't seem that likely either.

What did we learn from Sturgeon?

Laura Kuenssberg

Presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg

PA Media

After Covid, after Brexit, Nicola Sturgeon wants Scottish voters to turn their minds again to the independence question.

In the courts, her party is trying to get permission to hold another referendum. In politics, she is using every opportunity to make the most of the Tories' disarray to suggest that the risk of staying in the UK is greater than the many uncertainties of independence.

But when it comes to how she will make that happen, she herself this morning admitted that her options are "limited".

Despite her political dominance she does not have a sure-fire way of securing another vote, nor, if she wants to treat the next general election as a question on independence, does she have any guarantee that a future UK government would see it that way.

It's also true as we talked about this morning, that there is a sizeable difference between the proportion of the public who want independence, and those who want a vote soon.

In short, there is no massive public clamour for a referendum on her timetable. And polls for years now have shown the public to be roughly split down the middle.

Nicola Sturgeon's statement that she ‘detests’ the Tories may appeal to some of her supporters. But it could raise eyebrows for others - many Scots worry about a return of a viscious debate.

Final thoughts from the panel

BBC

Martin Pibworth says he is an optimist and he says the reason the UK has a resilient energy system is because of the investment into renewables.

He adds that this can be expanded further to help build out of this energy crisis.

SNP MP Joanna Cherry tells Laura Kuenssberg: "I'm cheerful about the prospects for Scotland.

"The underlying trend is very much in favour of independence," she adds.

Alistair Darling says: "I've not cheered up in the last hour if that is what you are asking."

"I'm worried about the prospects for this country."

Should people be sensible about Covid, Zahawi asked

On Covid - the latest stats show that one in 50 people currently have it. Should people be careful when visiting elderly relatives this winter, Zahawi is asked?

He says the government is well set to get people their Covid boosters and flu jabs.

But should the public start changing their behaviour, Kuenssberg asks?

"Get yourself boosted, but be sensible," he answers.

And he rules out any return to government by Boris Johnson, saying he knows the former prime minister, and that Tory MPs should get behind Liz Truss.

Zahawi says blackouts extremely unlikely this winter

Kuenssberg asks, is the government preparing for the possibility of blackouts this winter?

Cabinet minister Zahawi says he chairs the meetings on resilience, and the UK has the same buffer as last year, and that the government has continued to invest in gas - production is up 26% he says.

People can enjoy Christmas and feel the government is helping them with their bills, he adds.

Pressed a second time, he says it is extremely unlikely that we'll see blackouts. But, he says, we have war on our continent, and national grid has issued a warning in case things "align in a bad way".

But he doesn't think that'll happen, he says again, because of the measures the government has taken.

Nadhim Zahawi says blackouts extremely unlikely

No need for energy saving public information campaign - Zahawi

We're hearing now from cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi.

Is, as Nadine Dorries says, the prime minister on borrowed time, asks Kuenssberg?

No, he replies, and the enemy of the government is "division and delay" when it wants to get on with its plan to grow the economy.

Asked why the government is not telling Britons to save energy this winter following warnings of potential black outs, he says that they didn't want to "waste" £14m on a public information campaign because that message can be communicated by the National Grid itself.

We're about to hear from Nadhim Zahawi

Nadhim Zahawi is joining Laura on the programme this morning to speak for the government.

Will he want to say more about the atmosphere within cabinet after the U-turn on the 45p tax rate and open discussions on the issue of uprating benefits?

He might want to talk about the potential for energy blackouts this winter, and whether there should be an official information campaign urging people to save energy.

Dorries won't rule out the return of Boris Johnson

Nadine Dorries is asked if she can see Boris Johnson returning to No 10.

She says the message from Johnson is that people should get behind Truss.

It would take a "bizarre reversal" of roles, and Sir Graham Brady would need to go and see him with an olive branch, not a revolver.

She says she's not ruling anything out, but it's "highly, extremely unlikely".

Dorries quizzed over potential Boris Johnson return

Truss needs to consult Tory MPs, says Dorries

Kuenssberg asks whether people can really get behind Truss when Dorries herself has said she's lurched to the right. Why can't get the Tory party get its act together, she asks?

Dorries says the Tory party is in a dangerous position in the polls, and that MPs should discuss the way forward with the leader.

She says it's time for Liz Truss to start sitting down with backbenchers to talk about the poll deficit and what needs to be done.

Dorries - I am still one of Liz Truss' biggest supporters

Ex-Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, an ally of former Boris Johnson and backer of Liz Truss when she was running to be leader of the Conservative Party, is next up.

I'm still one of Truss' biggest supporters she says, but with Labour leading the opinion polls, the administration must address that, she says.

Should the PM call an election, Kuessberg asks her? Dorries says people voted for Boris Johnson but we can't throw out what they backed and the mandate he was given.

If you're going to have a completely fresh set of policy ideas and a new prime minister you should go to the public, Dorries says. But "Liz doesn't need to do that" she says, adding Truss has to do what is right to reduce that poll deficit by ditching policies people didn't vote for.

I'm one of PM's biggest supporters, says Dorries

On next - Nadine Dorries

We’re in the Cotswolds next to speak to former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, who in the past week has criticised Prime Minister Liz Truss “lurching to the right” since entering No 10 Downing Street.

A staunch ally of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Dorries has accused Truss of shelving several of his policies which she says people voted for at the 2019 general election.

Although she supported Truss in the leadership race, she now says she should call an election to win a mandate for her policies.

What did the panel take away from Sturgeon's interview?

We're back with the panel, and SNP MP Joanna Cherry says while she has disagreed with Nicola Sturgeon on issues such as gender and lesbian rights, she adds on independence "Nicola and I are as one".

Alistair Darling, who campaigned against independence in 2014, says Sturgeon has not changed his mind and Scotland is tearing itself apart on the issue which is damaging its economy.

Martin Pibworth of SSE says there will still be a need for oil and gas in the future despite the push towards renewable energy - because the technology to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere (carbon capture) does need gas to fuel it.

Sturgeon attacks Labour and Tories

Philip Sim

BBC Scotland political correspondent

It’s no surprise to hear Nicola Sturgeon attacking the Conservatives and the UK government.

But it’s interesting to hear her make a point of singling out Labour for criticism too.

Since the 2014 referendum, the SNP and the Tories have been happy to contest Scottish politics as a binary battle between the parties of independence and the union – with Labour shut out as a third wheel.

But with the sands potentially shifting at Westminster and Labour trying to build momentum as an alternative government, the SNP have started workshopping possible attack lines.

Hence the talk of Keir Starmer “throwing in the towel” on Brexit – linking his party to something relatively unpopular in Scotland.

And it is why Sturgeon added so many caveats to her answer about who she would prefer as prime minister – she does not want any of her votes to slip back to Labour.

Will Sturgeon commit to matching tax cuts set out by Truss?

On tax, Kuenssberg asks if Sturgeon will match the tax cuts promised by Prime Minister Liz Truss.

Sturgeon says she will set out her tax plans in the December budget, but points out the majority of income tax payers in Scotland already pay less than the rest of the UK.

She says Scotland needs to weigh the need to have investment in public services and the NHS before making any decision on tax cuts.

Sturgeon won't commit to new oil and gas licenses

Kuenssberg asks about oil and gas - and whether Sturgeon supports approving new licenses for exploration.

Sturgeon says the North Sea is a declining resource, and there is an environmental imperative to move away from fossil fuels.

She says any new licenses must have a "robust climate compatability check". She says she's sceptical about whether new licenses can pass that test.

Sturgeon has to juggle three arguments

Philip Sim

BBC Scotland political correspondent

Nicola Sturgeon has to juggle three different arguments for independence at the moment, and we have heard bits of all of them this morning.

There are the technical, procedural arguments about Holyrood’s competence which will be rehearsed at the Supreme Court this week.

That lies within the argument aimed at either persuading or forcing the UK government to sign up to a referendum – which today boiled down to calling them chickens who are running scared of the contest.

And that is part of a broader argument aimed at Scots in general, aimed at winning them over to independence. Hence the talk of defending Scottish democracy.

The three arguments are interlinked, nested together like Russian dolls – and all three will prove crucial if Sturgeon is to deliver, and win, a referendum.

Sturgeon won't 'give up on Scottish democracy'

Nicola Sturgeon insists last year's Holyrood election result is a mandate for indyref2.

The first minister believes there is an appetite for a referendum.

Laura Kuenssberg asks what Sturgeon will do if the Supreme Court does not allow this vote.

Sturgeon replies that holding a de facto referendum is not her first preference.

"But look we have to have an alternative," she says.

The first minister warns that not to put the case for independence would be to "give up on Scottish democracy".

A Westminster block would highlight our case - Sturgeon

If a referendum is blocked by a Westminster government, Sturgeon says, that's because Scotland is in a system that simply will not respect Scottish democracy.

And that is one of the most powerful arguments for Scotland being independent she says.

She says the whole basis of being in partnership with England and the other nations falls apart if they are not treated as equals.

Sturgeon confident Scotland will become independent

Laura Kuenssberg welcomes Nicola Sturgeon reminding her she has pledged to hold an independence referendum in a year and ten days' time and asks if she is confident that will happen?

Scotland's first minister replies: "Yes I am confident that that can happen."

Sturgeon adds the Supreme Court will rule whether the Scottish Parliament has the competence to legislate for that referendum.

She says if the answer is yes the plan is ready to go.

.

Kuenssberg puts it to the first minister that opinion polls suggest people are not keen to have another referendum as soon as next year - and draws her attention to the graph above.

Sturgeon says she believes there is an appetite for a referendum - she says she was elected on a clear manifesto commitment and has that mandate.

She says the consequences for Scotland, in not being independent, are seen every day. She says pensions, the EU, a currency crisis, are all having an effect on people.

Sturgeon says the UK government should not fear democracy, but should relish the opportunity to give people their say.

Appetite for referendum despite polls - Sturgeon