Image source, PA Media

Get your spreadsheets out

A number of MPs have been switching their allegiance over to the final two candidates standing to become the next Conservative Party leader and PM. MPs who initially backed Boris Johnson in the race have been switching camps.

So far, Nadhim Zahawi, Shailesh Vara, James Duddridge and David Morris - who all backed Johnson in the contest - have publicly switched to Sunak. Michael Fabricant is the first MP to change his nomination from Johnson to Penny Mordaunt.

Currently 180 out of 357 Tory MPs have gone public with their support - Sunak has the backing of 155 MPs and Mordaunt has 25, according to the BBC's tally.

All over by 2pm?

If Mordaunt fails to reach the 100 MP threshold, it will all be over by 2pm today when nominations close, with Sunak declared the winner. If this scenario pans out, we don't know exactly when he would become PM, because King Charles would need to be involved. There are suggestions that this could happen tomorrow rather than today.

Or a members run-off?

If Mordaunt does however reach 100 nominations, there will be an indicative vote among Conservative MPs that will take place between 3:30pm and 5:30pm today.

If no-one withdraws after the indicative vote, Conservative members will decide on the next leader and prime minister. They will take part in an online vote to decide the winner, with the result declared by Friday.

Another Penny Mordaunt backer, former minister Damien Green, has reiterated that she is confident of reaching the threshold needed to further contest the leadership race.

Mordaunt has until 14:00 to garner the support of at least 100 MPs and build upon her current 25 backers to get her name on the ballot paper alongside Rishi Sunak.

Green says her team are confident she'll get the 100 names she needs, adding that her supporters are actually "way, way above" the current number of public endorsements.

"Penny is now looking to make sure she's above the 100 mark of nominations needed to go forward and then we can proceed to what will be a civilised discussion between Penny and Rishi to see who wins this election," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

He added: "Penny is the person best positioned to unify the party."

More now from Home Secretary Grant Shapps, who has been speaking to BBC Breakfast.

He is asked about comments made by Boris Johnson backer Nadine Dorries, who said "all hell will break loose" if Rishi Sunak becomes PM.

Shapps, a Sunak backer, points out that Dorries is standing down at the next election, and says he believes Sunak is the right person to unify the party and deliver the 2019 manifesto.

"People can judge" in the next general election in two years, he says, adding it was "too soon" for Johnson to return as PM.

Image source, PA Media

Home Secretary Grant Shapps says Rishi Sunak is "relaxed" about the prospect of a run-off against Penny Mordaunt, which would mean the Tory membership would get to have their say on who will be the new prime minister.

The membership chose Liz Truss over Sunak last month.

"I know he is relaxed if that's where it has to go," Shapps, who is backing Sunak, tells BBC's Breakfast.

"I've read a lot of the headlines this morning but he’s not in the mind space of thinking it’s all over," he adds.

Robbie Moore, a Tory MP who is supporting Penny Mordaunt, says he is "absolutely confident we have the numbers" required to force a run-off with Rishi Sunak.

Mordaunt currently has just 25 MPs who've publicly backed her campaign - she must reach 100 by 14:00 today.

In contrast, 155 have already announced their support for Sunak.

But Moore says he's confident Mordaunt will be on the ballot.

"My view is that Penny is the unity candidate who is able to pull not only the parliamentary party together but the membership," he tells BBC's Breakfast. He adds that it's important to allow the party's membership to have their say in a vote.

Michael Race
Business reporter

The pound gained against the dollar as Rishi Sunak emerged as the favourite to become the next prime minister.

On Monday morning, sterling stood around 0.4% higher at $1.135, after Boris Johnson dropped out of the Conservative leadership race.

On Friday it fell as low as $1.11 amid continued political uncertainty and fresh warnings about the UK economy.

Megan Greene, a global chief economist at the Kroll Institute consultancy, told the BBC's Today programme that Sunak's position as the frontrunner "should help" calm the markets.

"Two weeks ago the UK looked completely un-investable," she said, though she warned investors were "still wary" and that the UK had a "tough line to walk".

Image source, Getty Images

Penny Mordaunt has joined her leadership rival Rishi Sunak in commending Boris Johnson after he pulled out of the contest last night.

Mordaunt, who currently has 25 backers, tweeted, external: "In taking this difficult decision last night Boris Johnson has put country before party, and party before self.

"He worked to secure the mandate and the majority we now enjoy. We should put it to good use, and I know he will work with us to do so."

Johnson pulled out of the race to succeed Liz Truss by claiming he had the support needed to stand but said it would not be "the right thing to do".

Following the announcement, Sunak, who has the support of 155 Tory MPs, praised Johnson for his achievements as PM, saying "he led our country through some of the toughest challenges we have ever faced".

Nick Eardley
Chief political correspondent

I’ve just been speaking to Team Mordaunt.

They say they are within “touching distance” of getting enough backers among Tory MPs. But we can’t verify this and the BBC tally has her on a considerably lower number - just 25.

A source in the Mordaunt camp also says she will definitely push the vote to the membership if she gets to 100 backers by lunchtime.

Remember there is a lot of spin in these campaigns and everyone wants to give the impression they have momentum.

We know Rishi Sunak has more than 100 backers because they’ve said so publicly.

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, Getty Images

With the former prime minister Boris Johnson out, the firm favourite to be the new prime minister is Rishi Sunak - and, unless Penny Mordaunt assembles an army of supporters many times greater than those currently signed up, and between now and lunchtime, Sunak's victory could be confirmed this afternoon.

Whatever happens there'll be a new prime minister by the end of the week.

Yes, a third prime minister in seven weeks.

An unprecedented level of turbulence; a calamitous series of events that most Conservatives acknowledge privately has amounted to a circus of absurdity deeply damaging to their party's reputation.

The winner will inherit the same groaning basket of problems that proved too heavy for Liz Truss to bear: a deeply divided party; spiralling prices, grim public finances and a chorus of opposition parties saying they have no electoral legitimacy.

But they'll hope too the Conservative Party's apparent insatiable appetite for insurrection may finally be sated. If it isn't, a toweringly difficult task will rapidly become impossible.

Image source, Getty Images

Rishi Sunak praised Boris Johnson for his achievements in Downing Street after he pulled out of the race.

In a tweet, external, Sunak wrote:

Boris Johnson dramatically pulled out of the leadership race last night - saying he had the support he needed to stand, although fewer than 60 MPs had publicly declared their support for him.

Here's the former PM's statement in full.

The majority of today's papers lead with Boris Johnson ruling himself out of the race for No 10.

The Daily Mail says Rishi Sunak is firmly on course to become the new prime minister.

A campaign source for Penny Mordaunt tells the Daily Telegraph that she will fight on, saying "it's looking good".

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt endorses Sunak in a piece in the Telegraph, comparing him to Winston Churchill in his willingness to speak the "truth".

The Metro says that unless Penny Mordaunt finds another 75 nominations within hours, a vote by party members will not go ahead and Sunak will be declared the winner.

Read more here.

Image source, Daily Mail

Image source, Daily Telegraph

Image source, Metro

Nick Eardley
Chief political correspondent

We could have the new prime minister confirmed a little after lunchtime.

Rishi Sunak is miles ahead of Penny Mordaunt when it comes to nominations from MPs.

There is one question in the next few hours: Will Mordaunt make the 100 threshold by the 2pm deadline?

It’s possible she'll hoover up some of Boris Johnson’s supporters who dislike Sunak.

But overnight, a few of Johnson’s backers moved over to the Sunak camp instead.

We’ll be watching the numbers very closely this morning. If Mordaunt does make the threshold, she would be able to push the race to an online vote of Conservative members.

Late last night, Team Sunak said they were taking nothing for granted and Team Mordaunt said they were still in the running.

Who will be the UK’s third prime minister in two months? We’ll know a lot more over the course of the day.

Image source, PA Media

If you're just catching up, here's what's been happening during another eventful evening in UK politics:

• Boris Johnson withdrew from the race to replace Liz Truss as leader of the Conservative party, leaving Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt as the final two contenders to become the next prime minister

• In his statement, Johnson said that he reached out to both Sunak and Mordaunt in the hope they could "come together in the national interest" but said "we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing this"
• The former PM claimed to have reached 102 backers although fewer than 60 MPs had publicly declared their support for him

• MPs who backed Johnson have begun switching their nominations to back Sunak and Mordaunt, and they have until 2pm today to do so
• Following his announcement, Sunak praised Johnson for his achievements as PM, saying "he led our country through some of the toughest challenges we have ever faced"

Image source, get

It's deadline day.

That means any Tory MP who fancies their chances at running the country after Liz Truss needs to get 100 of their colleagues to support them by 2pm.

At the moment, that's looking like Rishi Sunak, for sure, and maybe Penny Mordaunt.

Boris Johnson, as you may have heard, has given up on his attempt at a political comeback.

Stay with us this morning as we guide you through what we know - and what we don't.

Labour MP Chris Bryant says that if Rishi Sunak becomes prime minister, the British electoral system will look "no more democratic than a banana republic".

Bryant tweeted:

Sunak is currently the frontrunner in the Tory leadership contest, ahead of Penny Mordaunt, after Boris Johnson bowed out of the race last night.

UK general elections - where all 650 MPs are elected to the House of Commons - have to be held no more than five years apart.

Unless an earlier one is called, the next election isn't due until January 2025.

Who can call an early election?

The decision to hold an early election usually rests with the prime minister. However, until very recently, this wasn't the case.

In 2011, a law was passed that removed the PM's power to hold an early election and instead handed control to the House of Commons.

Under those rules an early election could only be held under certain circumstances - such as if two-thirds of MPs agreed to one.

However, after winning the 2019 election, the Conservatives introduced a new law - called the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, external.

This restored the PM's traditional power to call elections at a time of their choosing.

How is an early election called?

If a PM wants an early election they need to make a "request" to the King to dissolve Parliament - the official term for closing Parliament in order to hold an election.

There will be a great deal of political pressure on the new prime minister to call an election, particularly as the current government is so far behind in opinion polls.

Read more here.

SNP's Westminster leader says Tory MPs should put pressure on whoever becomes the new prime minister to immediately call a general election.

Ian Blackford said: “Having wrecked the economy, in a period of rule that’s seen mortgage rates rise, pensions fall, and soaring inflation driving up household bills, the last thing the country needs is another unelected Tory in Downing Street.

He said Rishi Sunak will be “just as bad” for the people of Scotland after Boris Johnson pulled out of the race to become the next prime minister.

“That the Tories can foist upon us a third prime minister in just three years without an election, in the midst of a cost of living and economic crisis of their making, speaks to how unfair and undemocratic this Westminster system is," he said.

Image source, Reuters

During the last contest for PM, Sunak's rival Liz Truss pledged a string of tax cuts to get the economy back into shape.

But Sunak ploughed on with his more modest financial proposals - and said he would stand by them, even if they cost him the election.

His resolve is now paying off, as he forges ahead as the frontrunner in the contest following the chaos and collapse of the mini-budget.

But what makes the man who could be your next PM? We have taken a look at the life and work of the 42-year-old father-of-two - which you can read here.