Scepticism on real extent of Johnson's supportpublished at 15:19 British Summer Time 22 October 2022

15:19 BST 22 October 2022

Chris Mason
Political editor

Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.

"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.

Why?

Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy.

These races are all about generating momentum, even a sense of inevitability.

There are MPs inclined to back him but keen to keep their counsel for now — but you can expect a blizzard of demands that Johnson’s team produce a list if their claim is to be seen to be credible.

Image source, PA Media

A source from Boris Johnson's campaign says he has hit the magic 100 MPs needed to get on the ballot for the Tory leadership race - but the former PM has yet to declare whether he will stand.

He arrived back in the UK this morning following a 10-hour flight from the Dominican Republic, where he was holidaying in a luxury resort with his wife and children.

We understand he had already been there for a few weeks - so he was either due to come back anyway or cut his trip short following Liz Truss's resignation.

Chris Mason
Political editor

Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers among Conservative MPs, a campaign source tells me, meaning he could be on the ballot on Monday if he chooses to be.

This is more than the number of publicly declared backers for Johnson, which stand at 49, according to BBC research.

Image source, PA Media

Boris Johnson's former chief of staff Steve Barclay, who was promoted three times by Johnson during his time as prime minister, is among those to come out in Rishi Sunak's support.

Johnson has, however, secured the backing of three of the best-known former cabinet colleagues - Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Ben Wallace.

Pendle MP Andrew Stephenson backs Boris Johnson. He told the BBC that over the summer many of his constituents were "disappointed" that Boris had gone and were clamouring to have him back - and that now he is too. "I have heard lots of MPs who now feel they were rash to encourage him to resign in the summer. Now we need him back.

"I think Boris is someone with a proven track record who delivered Brexit, he delivered the fastest vaccine rollout in Europe. He ensured this country led the international coalition against Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine. I believe he is a tried-and-tested leader."

MP Dame Maria Miller is backing Penny Mordaunt "because she can bring the party and the country together".

She added: Her background makes her well-placed to connect with people. We're going through a tough time as a country and we want to have a PM who can demonstrate they can understand that and put the right support in place for families."

Mordaunt is someone who "really understands the struggles of ordinary people", Dame Maria said

And Dominic Raab, who was deputy prime minister in Boris Johnson's government and is backing Rishi Sunak, said: "Rishi had the right plan in the summer and I think it is the right plan now. He is the best placed candidate to provide some stability, to provide confidence for the millions of workers and businesses up and down the country."

Raab said Sunak is also "the right candidate to bring the party together with a government of all of the talents to just relentlessly deliver for the British people whether it is on the cost of living, crime, schools or NHS."

If you'd like to get a sense of what voters around the country think about what's going on, we've put together a short compilation of some of their thoughts:

With around 48 hours to go until the deadline for nominations closes, the Tory leadership race to become the next prime minister appears to be in a watching and waiting phase - with no word from either Rishi Sunak or Boris Johnson on whether they plan to run.

For anyone just joining us, here's a quick update:

• Penny Mordaunt, who remains the only official candidate declared for the race, has released a campaign video and pledged to: "Unite the party. Deliver the manifesto. Win the General Election."
• Speculation is growing around when - or perhaps if - the two frontrunners for the race, former prime minister Boris Johnson and ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak, will declare they are running
• We expect Sunak to announce his candidacy soon, but that's all we know for now
• Johnson, who has just returned to the UK from his Caribbean holiday, is also keeping his own counsel about whether he intends to run
• Both are well ahead of Mordaunt in terms of declared supporters, with Sunak in first with 110 (meeting the threshold to get his name on the ballot), Johnson in second on 48, while Mordaunt has secured 21
• But with nearly half of Tory MPs declaring their support (179 MPs), there are still 175 yet to declare who they will be backing (although this does at this stage include Mordaunt, Johnson and Sunak themselves).

Without officially declaring he is running, Rishi Sunak is the bookies' favourite to become the next Tory leader and prime minister, according to betting aggregator Oddschecker.

Johnson's odds have shortened sharply since Liz Truss resigned on 20 October, but the same is largely true of Sunak and he is now odds-on, meaning he is judged to be more likely to become PM than to fail in his bid.

Take a look:

Image source, .

Image source, PA Media

Former health secretary Matt Hancock has urged both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak to work together in the national interest and called on the former prime minister to back his apparent rival to lead the country.

The West Suffolk MP - who was health secretary under Johnson - is backing former Chancellor Sunak, but urged the pair to "talk to each other".

Hancock tells BBC Radio Suffolk that co-operation is needed to bring "stable leadership" during a time of economic and political instability.

"We need to all come together and we need to deliver for the country," he adds.

Asked if he thought a deal between the pair possible, Hancock says it would be "superb and strongly in the national interest" for his former boss to get behind Sunak.

Anthony Reuben
Reality Check

if there are still two candidates remaining after MPs vote in a series of ballots on Monday, then the contest will be decided by Conservative Party members via what they describe as "secure online voting".

Voters will have to have been members for at least three months to be allowed to participate, with their ballot due to close at 11:00 on Friday.

But there have been some concerns raised about the security of the online voting process.

This reportedly includes concerns from the security services during the last Tory leadership election, which caused a delay to the opening of the online ballot over the summer.

Both the Electoral Commission and other voting experts also say there are safety issues with online voting - which is not allowed in general elections and local elections, or even for balloting of union members thinking of taking strike action.

With this in mind, our colleagues at BBC Reality Check have taken a detailed look all the issues that have been raised, as well as what the Tories have said in response.

Image source, Reuters

Former Brexit minister David Frost is backing Rishi Sunak to be the next prime minister.

In a hardening of his earlier stance that Conservative MPs must "think quite hard" before returning Johnson to power, Frost says it is "simply not right to risk repeating the chaos and confusion of the last year".

Frost was a key negotiator of Johnson's deal to take the UK out of the EU in 2019 - and he says the former PM "will always be a hero for delivering Brexit".

But he says the party "must move on".

As a member of the House of Lords (rather than a Tory MP) Frost does not get to nominate a candidate, but he says the party "must get behind a capable leader".

It was a blistering series of events that led up to this leadership contest - so if you're in need of a quick summary of how we got here, we've got you covered:

Friday 14 October - Kwasi Kwarteng is sacked as chancellor by (then) Prime Minister Liz Truss and appoints Jeremy Hunt to replace him

Monday - Hunt ditches most of the tax-cutting mini-budget, following weeks of market chaos since they were laid out in late September

Wednesday - Suella Braverman quits as home secretary after breaking the ministerial code - sending a stinging resignation letter to Truss - and is herself replaced by Grant Shapps.

This is followed by a evening of chaos in the Commons with allegations of bullying of MPs confused over whether a fracking motion tabled by Labour was actually a vote of confidence in Truss's leadership.

Thursday - Truss resigns as PM after calling the chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee to Downing Street to gauge her support among Tory MPs.

Helen Catt
Political correspondent

Rishi Sunak is expected to confirm his candidacy soon, according to a source in his campaign.

Image source, PA Media

Let's hear now from Henry Hill, the deputy editor of the ConservativeHome website, which supports - but is independent of - the Tory Party.

Hill says he's "slightly baffled" as to why Sunak hasn't yet declared he's running, despite racking up the necessary 100 supporters.

Boris Johnson, meanwhile, is "sucking up nearly all of the oxygen" in the race so far (he also hasn't confirmed he's running).

What about their policies? Hill thinks trying to pin down what Johnson will do is "almost impossible".

Sunak is almost certainly on the same page as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt when it comes to calming the markets, he says, while Johnson's pitch will be the manifesto he was elected on in 2019.

The problem, Hill says, is the economic circumstances now are completely different - and the markets might not react well.

Nomia Iqbal
Reporting from Gatwick

Boris Johnson and his family have left their plane at Gatwick from the back steps after arriving home from their holiday in the Caribbean.

His security detail escorted him and his wife and children into two dark vans, amid speculation he could declare plans to run to succeed Liz Truss.

There are passengers gathered trying to take pictures of the former prime minister - with some bemused and shocked to learn he was on the plane.

Image source, Getty Images

Former Home Secretary Priti Patel has come out in support of her former boss Boris Johnson.

In a tweet, she says: "Boris has the mandate to deliver our elected manifesto and a proven track record getting the big decisions right."

Patel was replaced by Suella Braverman when Liz Truss won the keys to No 10 - but prior to that she served as Johnson's home secretary for his entire premiership.

Almost half of all Tory MPs - 169 out of 357 - have gone public with their support for who they want to succeed Liz Truss as the next prime minister.

The BBC now estimates that Rishi Sunak has reached 100 public backers needed to qualify as a candidate in the leadership race.

The current tally is:

• Rishi Sunak - 102 MPs
• Boris Johnson - 46 MPs
• Penny Mordaunt - 21 MPs

We're only including MPs who have told the BBC on the record who they are backing, or MPs who have publicly declared their support.

You can look up exactly who has declared their support here - and find out who your MP is here, external.

Nomia Iqbal
Reporting from Gatwick

Boris Johnson has landed at Gatwick airport after a 10-hour flight from the Dominican Republic, where he was staying in a luxury resort with his wife and children.

We understand he was there for a few weeks - so he was either due to come back anyway or cut his trip short following Liz Truss's resignation.

Johnson was seated in economy with heavy security, including members of the Metropolitan Police.

He has not officially or directly spoken yet about whether he plans to run for party leadership.

Penny Mordaunt, the first and only MP to officially enter the race so far, has released a glossy campaign video which she says shows "the real me".

She retraces her origins in Portsmouth - "it likes a pie and a pint and quite frankly, so do I" - and talks about her experience of relying on the NHS, watching the British fleet set off for the Falklands, and her trips to warzones and humanitarian hotspots.

The contest to replace Liz Truss is heating up, with more MPs coming forward to say who they are backing by the hour.

Here's a quick rundown of what the next couple of weeks is likely to involve:

Image source, .