Elizabeth Glinka
Political Editor, BBC Midlands

Image source, Getty Images

Outside of the big urban authorities, the map of West Midlands councils is pretty blue.

But the Conservatives are under pressure in these elections, with other parties targeting authorities in swing areas and traditional Tory strongholds like Staffordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire.

The Liberal Democrats have high hopes in Stratford-upon-Avon, where they need four seats to flip it from the Conservatives and have mounted a concerted campaign there, including visits from party leader Sir Ed Davey.

Meanwhile, perhaps in response to the furore surrounding the tax affairs and resignation of local Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi as the party's chairman, all the Tory candidates in Stratford are running as “local Conservatives”.

Elsewhere, Labour have multiple targets across the Midlands, including Stoke-on-Trent, North Warwickshire and Stafford.

No party has succeeded in gaining a majority in Southend-on-Sea, where there has been no change for the Essex council.

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And in North East Lincolnshire, the Conservatives have retained their majority.

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From southern England to the West Midlands and Worcester - where there was talk of Labour gaining its first majority on the council this century - no party has overall control of the chamber.

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It seems to be a co-ordinated effort from Hampshire, where two more councils have declared results.

There have similarly been no changes: no party has a majority in Portsmouth or Hart.

Stevenage in Hertfordshire has also stayed under Labour control.

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There has also been no dramatic changes in Ipswich, where Labour have held on to the council in Suffolk.

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We've just received three results from Hampshire in quick succession.

The Tories have retained control of Rushmoor and Havant while the Lib Dems remain in charge in Eastleigh.

There has been no change for Peterborough council in Cambridgeshire, where no party has gained a majority.

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In the second change of hands following Thursday's local elections, the Conservatives have lost control of Tamworth in Staffordshire. No party has succeeded in gaining a majority in the council chamber.

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Charlotte Wright
BBC South East political editor, reporting from Chatham

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Medway in Kent was one of Sir Keir Starmer’s first stops on his local election campaign tour this year, where he told activists Labour had a “fighting chance” of winning.

It’s optimistic - the unitary authority has been Conservative since 2003 and Labour hasn’t had an MP in the area since they were all voted out in 2010.

But this year, local activists have been much more bullish about a breakthrough.

They believe the party’s performance in the national polls, coupled with their hard work on the doorstep and some boundary changes, means there’s a strong chance of success.

That would be significant: one political expert described Medway to me as the South East’s version of the “red wall”, so if they can win here tonight it’s a good sign for the party’s prospects at the next general election.

A fourth Essex council has declared its results, this time it's Castle Point where no party has gained overall control.

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Peter Barnes
BBC political analyst

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Council elections in England follow a four-year cycle, so almost all of the seats being fought this time were last contested in 2019. That’s important because it means the results then become the baseline for this election.

At the time of the 2019 local elections, both the Conservatives and Labour had seen their popularity fall significantly following parliamentary battles over Theresa May’s Brexit deal, which had repeatedly been rejected by MPs.

The newly-formed Brexit Party, which was renamed Reform UK in 2021, was attracting the backing of many pro-Brexit voters.

Change UK, another new party, had briefly enjoyed support from voters on the other side of the debate, although by May the Lib Dems were doing better in attracting anti-Brexit voters.

At the local elections, the Conservatives lost 1,300 seats. Labour didn’t benefit though. They also saw their seat total fall by 84 – a poor result for the main opposition party facing an unpopular government.

The Brexit Party didn’t contest the election, so it ended up being the Lib Dems, with 700 gains, and Independents, with 600 gains, who were the big winners.

All that means that the Conservatives and Labour aren’t starting from a particularly high baseline.

However, recent opinion polls have been very bad for the Conservatives, so if the results tonight and tomorrow reflect those the Conservatives could still lose a lot of seats.

For Labour, there are certainly opportunities for substantial gains.

Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert

A pattern is beginning to emerge whereby, as compared with 2019, the swing from Labour to Conservative is rather higher in those areas that voted most strongly for Brexit.

On average, the swing from Conservative to Labour in the most pro-Brexit wards is a little over 4%, whereas it is only 3% in the least pro-Brexit wards.

Meanwhile, Labour's own vote is up by eight points in the most pro-Brexit wards, but up by six in the least pro-Brexit.

Over to the North Sea coast and Hartlepool where no party has gained overall control.

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Chris Mason
Political editor

The night is very, very young, and it will be barely adolescent by dawn – two-thirds of the results will come in during the day on Friday.

But here's sense of what we are picking up so far.

The Conservatives are, so far, going backwards, as predicted. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making progress.

So much of the briefing from Conservatives centrally, and in plenty of spots around England, paints a bleak picture for them.

But their spin is Labour will have to do very, very well to point towards a likely Labour win at the next general election.

Labour say any comparisons with local elections in the mid '90s – where Labour did spectacularly well and the Tories did spectacularly badly, ahead of Labour’s landslide general election win in 1997 – are overdone, because politics has changed big time since then, not least the growth of plenty of other parties.

No party has gained overall control of Colchester in Essex, meaning there has been no change for the council in these local elections.

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Another council retained by Labour is Devon's county town - Exeter.

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