Summary

  • Conservative MPs are meeting to discuss Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's updated plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda

  • The scheme is designed to send people who arrive in the UK in small boats to Rwanda to have their asylum claim considered

  • Some Tory factions are critical of the updated plan, with MPs on the right saying it risks being blocked by the courts again, while others say it ignores international law

  • The European Research Group says it provides a "partial and incomplete solution" to the problem of legal challenges being used to delay people being flown to Rwanda

  • The group's legal team says the bill does not go "far enough to deliver the policy as intended"

  • The New Conservatives faction - on the right of the party - says the legislation needs "major surgery or replacement"

  • But the One Nation group - made up of more centrist Tory MPs - is backing the bill in its current form

  • However, it is warning its members could vote against the policy in the future if amendments are made which breach the rule of law

  • Changes were needed after the UK's highest court blocked the scheme in November, saying asylum seekers could be sent to places where they could be harmed

  • The government has signed a new deal with the east African nation, which declares Rwanda a safe country

Live Reporting

Edited by Laura Gozzi

  1. Sunak faces even tougher test among MPs tomorrow

    Henry Zeffman
    Chief political correspondent

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrives to give evidence to the UK Covid-19 Inquiry at Dorland House in London on MondayPA Media

    If you think today is going to be tough for Rishi Sunak, just wait for tomorrow.

    That’s when MPs will record their first verdict on his emergency legislation designed to finally get the longstanding Rwanda asylum policy off the ground.

    It’s not as simple as the prime minister having to assuage the concerns of one group of his MPs - he has to please two.

    For the 'One Nation' faction of the Conservative Party the important thing is that the government sticks by its international human rights obligations.

    On the other wing, Sunak must persuade MPs from the right of the party that vanishingly few asylum seekers would be able to appeal deportations to Rwanda.

    We’re going to start hearing from both those groups of politicians today. The tentative signs - and I emphasise tentative - are that most MPs in both camps are likely to back the bill at this stage.

    But for one nationers, this is on the proviso that the bill will not end up going any further than it currently does.

    Whereas many on the right are likely to back it on the basis that they can try to toughen it up at later stages.

    They can’t both end up being correct. So even if Sunak can assemble a coalition within his party to get the legislation through tomorrow, it doesn’t mean his political peril is over.

  2. Who are the Tory factions jostling for influence on the Rwanda Bill?

    Sam Francis
    Political reporter

    The Tory party includes several factions, often overlapping in membership. These don't always vote uniformly but can be remarkably disciplined - potentially causing huge headaches for Rishi Sunak.

    For those of you not up to speed on the divisions within the Conservative Party, here's a quick guide to Tory factions:

    • The One Nation Caucus, the largest group with over 100 members, is led by Damian Green. They adhere to "liberal centre-right values" and have concerns about the Rwanda bill's alignment with international law. Lord Garnier, advising the caucus, labelled the bill as "nonsense"
    • The European Research Group (ERG), once pivotal in Brexit politics, now smaller in number, remains influential. Chaired by veteran Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash, the ERG's "star chamber" is reviewing the Rwanda legislation's suitability
    • The New Conservatives, a vocal faction formed in 2023, focus on radical migration measures and align with the ERG's findings
    • The Common Sense Group (CSG), led by Sir John Hayes, pushes for stringent migration policies and cultural conservatism. They challenge Sunak's Rwanda approach and broader "nanny state" policies
    • The Northern Research Group, emphasizing investment in "red wall" areas, supports the bill, expecting northern MPs' overwhelming backing.
    • The Conservative Growth Group, formed post-Liz Truss's tenure, champions libertarian economic policies, including tax cuts and deregulation

    Read more here.

  3. New Rwanda deal seeks to assuage Supreme Court concerns

    James Cleverly with Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs Vincent Biruta as they sign a new treaty in KigaliReuters

    As we've mentioned, in November the UK Supreme Court ruled the government's Rwanda plan as unlawful because of the risk that asylum seekers sent there could end up in countries where they could face harm.

    Last week, the government published new legislation which it says addresses the court's concerns. This bill will be voted on by MPs tomorrow.

    The bill orders the courts to ignore key sections of the Human Rights Act - as well as other British and international rules - in an attempt to sidestep the Supreme Court's existing judgment and declares Rwanda to be a safe country.

    Home Secretary James Cleverly has also signed a new treaty with the east African country which he says will strengthen its asylum process.

    Although asylum seekers would still be able challenge their removal to Rwanda based on their personal circumstances, the bill would also allow ministers to ignore emergency orders from the European Court of Human Rights to suspend a flight to Rwanda while an individual legal case is being heard.

  4. What is the Rwanda bill?

    Under the five-year trial - first announced in April 2022 - some asylum seekers arriving in the UK would be sent to Rwanda for processing.

    On arrival, they could be granted refugee status and allowed to stay. If not, they could apply to settle there on other grounds, or seek asylum in another "safe third country".

    The government said that "anyone entering the UK illegally" after 1 January 2022 could be sent there, with no limit on numbers.

    But, so far, no asylum seeker has actually been sent there.

    The first flight was scheduled to go in June 2022, but was cancelled after legal challenges.

  5. What is happening today?

    Sam Francis
    Political reporter

    Just before 13:00 we will hear the verdict of the European Research Group's "star chamber" of legal experts headed by veteran Brexiteer Sir Bill Cash - who described the bill as "not fit for purpose".

    This legal advice will be key in deciding the approach of around 100 MPs split into five right-wing groupings: European Research Group (ERG), New Conservatives, Common Sense Group, Conservative Growth Group and the Northern Research Group.

    The One Nation Caucus, made up of roughly 106 MPs on the left of the Tory party, are expected to give their verdict at about 18:00.

    The Times reported that several One Nation members have indicated they might vote with Labour to kill the bill over concerns on the bill's impact on human rights and legal norms.

    The legal work for that group has been done by Conservative former solicitor general Lord Garnier, who has compared the Bill with ruling "all dogs are cats" by claiming Rwanda is safe.

  6. Will Tory MPs back the flagship Rwanda bill?

    It's a busy day in politics as Conservative MPs consider their options ahead of tomorrow's vote on the government's Rwanda asylum policy.

    Two warring factions within the Conservative Party are currently poring over the Rwanda Bill, ahead of a critical test of Rishi Sunak's authority over his party.

    We will hear their verdicts throughout the day, and we will bring you all the latest - plus analysis and commentary - right on this page. Stay with us.