Tories suffer two by-election defeats with big swings to Labour

1. Labour has won two by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, overturning big Conservative majorities in the process
2. In Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, the party took Peter Bone’s former seat, which he had held with a majority of more than 18,000
3. And in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire, Labour overturned a 11,220 Conservative majority to win Chris Skidmore’s former seat
4. BBC elections expert John Curtice says the swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Wellingborough was the second biggest in any post-war election
5. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says the results show "people are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party" but adds that he is not "complacent"
6. But Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg blames a low turnout for the party's losses and insists Rishi Sunak's leadership is "solid" and "by-elections don't change that"
7. Press the play button at the top of this page to watch live coverage

Make no mistake, these are extraordinary results for Labour

Chris Mason

Political editor

My phone pinged first thing this morning with a text from a Conservative convinced of the party's imminent doom unless something radical changes - perhaps getting rid of Rishi Sunak.

But as things stand I don't detect a mass, wider outbreak of insurrection. At least not yet.

Instead, I detect a near resigned rationality to the near inevitability of these results from Tory insiders. One Tory backbencher, whose private reflections I sought on the results, replied with the crying laughter emoji, followed by "I'm an optimist".

The best the Conservatives can hope for is that by the autumn, the economy is looking up, and inflation and interest rates are coming down.

By-elections, particularly those midterm, can often be mood makers or even weather changers when it comes to the political climate. But these two, as close as they are to the general election and as in line with existing and increasingly established trends as they are, feel like they reinforce a collection of sentiments already there.

Make no mistake though - they are extraordinary results for Labour, a party crushed just five years ago, who now look as close to government as they have been in nearly a decade and a half.

• Read more here

A day of celebration, reflection and election promises

Sam Hancock

Live reporter

PA Media

Labour's Gen Kitchen overturned a Tory majority of more than 18,000 to win in Wellingborough

It's been an eventful day for Labour, with wins in two by-elections, as well as for the Conservatives who lost those seats by significant margins - and even for Reform UK who won a bigger vote share than expected. Here's a quick recap of the key points:

• Labour has gained two more seats in the House of Commons after winning by-elections in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire and Kingswood, South Gloucestershire - overturning big Tory majorities in the process
• Polling guru Sir John Curtice said the swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Wellingborough specifically was the second biggest in any post-war election

• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was "pleased" with the results, but he wouldn't get complacent and his party still has a "long way to go" before potentially forming the next government
• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said there were “particularly challenging” circumstances in the two Tory by-election defeats - and called on the country to “stick with" his government
• Reform UK (formerly known as the Brexit Party) scored its best ever by-election results, winning 13% of votes in Wellingborough, prompting one of the party's original founders Nigel Farage to predict that Labour will likely win the next general election - but Reform "the one afterwards"

Thanks for following along - you can keep reading all the by-election action here. Today's coverage was brought to you by Christy Cooney, Becky Morton, Tarik Habte, Malu Cursino and Adam Durbin. It was edited by Emily McGarvey and me.

Party's right-wing faction say Tory voters want better offer

We're going to bring our coverage to an end soon, but before then here are some words from MPs who sit on the right of the Conservative Party.

The group, known as the New Conservatives, say these latest by-election results show that voters want "a genuine alternative" to the current political landscape.

As we've been reporting throughout the day, Labour won in Wellingborough and Kingswood - overturning big Conservative majorities (more than 18,000 and 11,220 respectively) in the process.

Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates, co-chairs of the group, say Labour's victory is because of former Conservative voters either "staying at home or voting Reform". Turnout in Kingswood was 37% of registered voters, while in Wellingborough it was 38%.

The government has made "positive steps" to win back voters, Cates and Kruger say in a statemen - but it's "plainly not enough". They also called on PM Rishi Sunak to give Conservative voters a "better offer", which they say could include changes to immigration laws, welfare reform and tax cuts.

UK Parliament

The New Conservatives group was established last year, and is chaired by Cates (pictured) and Kruger

A double dose of the heebie-jeebies for Conservatives

Chris Mason

Political editor

The added political spice that garnishes the Tory gloom today is the performance of Reform UK.

I'm typing this in a café in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, where this morning Reform candidate and deputy leader Ben Habib has been on a victory lap.

Habib finished third behind the Labour and Conservative candidates, but it represents a victory in Reform's battle for influence, as they inflicted two very painful statistical wounds on Rishi Sunak's party.

Reform got a 13% share of the vote at this by-election, in line with some national opinion polls that some thought might be flattering the party.

And in Kingswood, near Bristol, they got a share of the vote greater than the gap between the victorious Labour candidate and the Tory runner-up.

That is a double dose of the heebie-jeebies delivered in one day to nervous Tories.

Watch: Farage says Tory members would vote for him over Sunak

We've just been hearing from Nigel Farage, who helped to set up Reform UK in 2018 - known then as the Brexit Party.

"I think if you asked Tory party members, right now, they'd vote for me to be leader and not Rishi Sunak," he tells our colleagues over on Radio 4's World at One programme. He says there's polling to back up this claim, but doesn't say where it comes from.

Farage says the by-election defeats in Wellingborough and Kingswood are the result of Conservative voters feeling "let down" and "betrayed" by the government. Asked if Reform will do a deal with them, Farage says: "There is no prospect - zero prospect - of a deal with the Conservatives. It will not happen."

And on the next general election, which has to happen by January 2025, Farage says he thinks Labour will win - leaving Reform to "win the one afterwards".

Watch what else he had to say in the clip below:

Farage: 'If you asked Tory party members right now, they'd vote for me to be leader'

Losing votes to Labour and Reform will concern Conservatives

Henry Zeffman

Chief political correspondent

A point to pick up on from earlier.

It will definitely be a concern for Conservatives that both by-elections - but particularly Wellingborough - appear to confirm they are losing votes in both directions.

The Reform Party got 13% of the vote in Northamptonshire - that's a pretty decent showing and it's their best in any by-election so far.

The most concerning thing for Conservatives who believe that winning back votes from the right is their path to turning around the general election, is that even if you make the generous assumption that the Conservatives could win back every vote that Reform won in yesterday's by-election - that still wouldn't have been enough for them to win.

Such is the scale of the votes they are losing to the Labour Party, it really leaves them in a strategic bind.

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BBC Verify

Anthony Reuben

Are PM's economy claims accurate?

Another point Rishi Sunak made to reporters earlier was that "the economy outperformed expectations last year".

He claimed the government was making progress across all his priorities (see our last post for details on those), which include growing the economy, but is it?

As we've already said, it was announced yesterday that the economy had contracted by 0.3% in the last three months of 2023, which was worse than many economists had expected. That figure took the economy into a recession and meant it only grew by 0.1% in 2023 as a whole compared with 2022.

Downing Street said the prime minister was referring to the Bank of England, which predicted in November 2022 that the economy would be in recession for all of 2023 and the first half of 2024.

We were also pointed towards the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which is responsible for making forecasts for the government - it predicted in November 2022 that the economy would shrink by 1.4% the following year.

What has happened has certainly been better than those forecasts. But in its latest predictions, in November 2023, the OBR was expecting growth of 0.6% in 2023 - so the actual figure of 0.1% was considerably worse than expected.

And the actual growth in the last three months of 2023 was also worse than the Bank of England predicted only two weeks ago.

Sunak's five pledges - where each of them stands

Reuters

We heard a little earlier from Rishi Sunak, who described the "circumstances" around yesterday's by-elections as "particularly challenging". The prime minister said his party's defeats suggested there's work to be done to show voters he's "delivering on their priorities".

That word is key because you may remember that at the start of last year, Sunak set out his five priorities and said he "fully" expected people to hold his government to account on them.

Here's a reminder of what they are - and where things stand:

1. Halving inflation: Inflation (the increase in prices over time) was at 10.7% in the three-month period between October and December 2022, so the aim was to reduce inflation to 5.3% or lower in the last three months of 2023, which the government achieved with a rate of 4.2%.
2. Growing the economy: A goal to grow the economy in the last quarter of 2023 was not met - the latest figures show it shrank 0.3% in that time, sending it into recession. Overall the economy grew by only 0.1% in the whole of 2023.
3. Reducing debt: When governments talk about reducing debt, they almost always mean as a proportion of GDP. In December, the statistics regulator criticised the prime minister for saying debt was falling when it was actually rising - the latest figures showed that government debt stood at 97.7% of the size of the economy (1.9% higher than the previous year).
4. Cutting NHS waiting lists: The overall number of waits for non-emergency treatment in England was 7.6 million in December. This was the fourth monthly fall in a row and about 140,000 down from August, but about 600,000 higher than it was in December 2022.
5. Stopping small boats: The government passed its Illegal Migration Bill in July last year, giving the home secretary a legal duty to detain and remove anyone entering the UK illegally. The plan included sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda but this was blocked by the Supreme Court.

Who is Damien Egan, Labour's new Kingswood MP?

Reuters

Damien Egan, the newly-installed Labour MP for Kingswood in South Gloucestershire, won last night's by-election with a vote swing of 16.4%. But how much do we know about him?

Egan was born in Cork, Ireland, but moved with his family to Bristol in south-west England as a child.

In 2018, he told a homeless charity that at the age of 14, he became homeless with his mother and sister.

Also in 2018, he was elected Mayor of Lewisham in south-east London, with more than half of the vote - and was re-elected in the 2022 mayoral elections with an increased majority.

The new MP converted from Catholicism to Judaism before marrying his Israeli husband, Yossi Felberaum.

Watch: Two by-elections, two Labour wins... in two minutes

Catch up on the BBC's coverage of the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections right here:

Two by-elections, two Labour wins... in two minutes

Who is Gen Kitchen, Labour's new Wellingborough MP?

Getty Images

Labour's winning candidate in Wellingborough, Genevieve (or Gen, as she's known) Kitchen overturned a Conservative majority of more than 18,000. But who is she?

At 27, Kitchen - who grew up in Northamptonshire - is the third-youngest British MP, after Labour's Nadia Whittome and Keir Mather.

She's worked in the charity sector for most of her career and in 2019 stood as prospective parliamentary candidate for Labour in the South Northamptonshire constituency - she lost to Andrea Leadsom, a former Conservative cabinet minister.

Kitchen, a former councillor in Newham, London, cut her honeymoon short last year to begin her by-election campaign in Wellingborough.

The new MP studied history and politics at Queen Mary University of London, from where she graduated in 2016.

In Wellingborough, Labour urge Sunak to call general election

Helen Catt

Political correspondent

BBC

Labour’s deputy national campaign co-ordinator Ellie Reeves (on the mic) addresses supporters

Here in the centre of Wellingborough, where Labour have secured a huge by-election victory, the party's celebrating.

The new MP Gen Kitchen tells assembled reporters it still hasn't sunk in - perhaps, she suggests, because she hasn't yet slept.

She says she fought her campaign on local issues such as restoring pride to town centres and potholes - issues she says she'll get onto quickly.

Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign co-ordinator, suggests the win shows the party could do it everywhere.

She says Labour will fight for every vote and urges PM Rishi Sunak to get on and call a general election

Five key things to know this morning

Sam Hancock

Live reporter

It's been a busy day so far, with lots of people reacting to the overnight news that Labour claimed a double by-election victory in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire and Kingswood, South Gloucestershire.

If you're just joining us, here's a quick recap:

• In both constituencies, Labour overturned big Conservative majorities but Wellingborough's result appears to be the most significant. Gen Kitchen, the newly-elected Labour MP there, secured 45.9% of the vote share - and an impressive swing of 28.5% from the Tories to Labour
• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was pleased with his party's performance, saying the country's "crying out for change" - but he acknowledged there's "always more work to do"

• Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak blamed a "very low turnout" for the damming results, saying midterm by-elections for sitting governments "are always difficult"
• With Reform UK securing its best ever by-election results, Sunak also warned that a vote "for anyone who isn't the Conservative candidate" will put Starmer in power at the next general election
• Polling expert Sir John Curtice has said the results are bad for Tories - and that although there's a lot for Labour to be congratulated on, last night's results tell us more about the "deep trouble" the Conservatives are in

Here's a reminder of those all-important results:

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We've reported a few times this morning - and throughout the night - that the swing of 28.5% from the Conservatives to Labour in Wellingborough is the second biggest at a by-election since the Second World War.

The above graphic lays out the data to show just that - take a look.

What is a by-election?

PA / AFP

Damien Egan (left) and Gen Kitchen are the latest Labour candidates to win big at by-elections

Going back to basics, a by-election is a vote held between general elections to replace a sitting MP.

There are a variety of reasons why an MP may need replacing, including them dying or resigning from office.

But the rules also state a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant if an MP is declared bankrupt or enters the House of Lords.

In some circumstances, a sitting MP can be kicked out if more than 10% of their constituents sign a recall petition.

A recall petition can be called for three reasons if an MP is:

• Convicted of a serious criminal offence which receives a prison sentence
• Found to have made false or misleading expenses claims

• Suspended from the House of Commons for more than 10 sitting days

The final option is what happened in Wellingborough, after former MP Peter Bone was suspended for six weeks over bullying and sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.

The Kingswood by-election was triggered by more typical circumstances, after Chris Skidmore resigned from office.

By-elections tend to be seen as an important indicator of the popularity of a sitting government among voters - though political experts warn that they are not necessarily reflective of how a general election will play out.

Listen: 5 Questions On - Labour's big wins

The BBC's 5 Questions On podcast has been speaking to - you guessed it - polling expert Sir John Curtice, whose key takeaways from these by-elections we covered earlier.

Labour beat the Conservatives by more than 6,000 votes in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire - and by more than 2,500 votes in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire.

But what do the results actually tell us? Listen to Curtice answer that, and more, here on BBC Sounds.

A vote for Reform or any other party is a vote for Starmer - Sunak

Sunak: Mid-term by-elections always difficult for governments

We’ve just been hearing from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak - who was speaking for the first time since the results of these by-elections were announced.

He says any vote that doesn’t go to his Conservative Party in a general election could put Labour in power.

Asked which party he's more concerned about moving forward - Reform UK or Labour - Sunak says:

A vote for anyone who isn’t the Conservative candidate, whether that’s Reform or anyone else, is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in power. That’s the actual choice during the general election, between me and him, between the Conservatives and Labour.”

The prime minister says midterm by-elections for incumbent governments “are always difficult” and “the circumstances of these by-elections were of course particularly challenging”, after Labour overturned big Tory majorities in both Kingswood and Wellingborough.

But, despite Labour’s swing in Wellingborough being credited as the second largest since the second world war, Sunak says “very low turnout” is to blame and results also show “there isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for the alternative in Keir Starmer and the Labour party”.

Sunak acknowledges that the Tories have “work to do" - but he claims his government has a plan to improve things in the UK while Labour doesn’t.

New Kingswood MP says victory hasn't sunk in yet

Iain Watson

Political correspondent

BBC

Damien Egan (at the mic) won the Kingswood by-election for Labour

I've been at Labour's victory rally in Kingswood, where the party's campaign co-ordinator congratulates Damien Egan on his victory in the South Gloucestershire seat.

Pat McFadden, also shadow chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster, says voters want to see change and Labour is the vehicle for that.

Also here, shadow minister Chris Bryant - who's been in the constituency throughout the campaign - says victory was hard fought and not inevitable.

Egan, who replaces former Tory MP Chris Skidmore as Kingswood's MP, also addresses the rally - saying victory hasn't quite sunk in.

He talks time and time again about the state of the NHS and the difficultly of getting a dentist on the health service in Kingswood, and how the hard work begins now.

Watch: Starmer pleased but says there's more to do

Here's some footage from that BBC Breakfast interview with Sir Keir Starmer, during which he said multiple times that Labour were proud of these by-election results - but there's "always more work to do".

He also claimed voters had clearly decided the Tories were failing “after 14 years” and his party had the “answers to their problems”.

Watch what he had to say here:

Starmer: Results show 'country crying out for change'

Starmer says he lost respect for Sunak over trans jibe in Commons

Finally, Keir Starmer is asked about a moment in Prime Minister's Questions last week, when Rishi Sunak made a jibe about how the Labour leader had defined a woman while murdered transgender teenager Brianna Ghey's mother was visiting Parliament.

Asked whether something had changed between him and Sunak that day, Starmer says "yes".

"The job of the prime minister is to rise above all issues and to make all people feel safe" in the UK, the Labour leader tells the BBC.

"His response means I've lost some respect for him."

And that's the end of the interview.