After nudges and hints, perhaps no fizz and flair in Budgetpublished at 10:47 Greenwich Mean Time 3 March

10:47 GMT 3 March

Laura Kuenssberg
Presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg

Meet Mr Prudent.

Jeremy Hunt this morning almost made like the chancellor of old, Gordon Brown, for whom the concept of prudence was his political pin up.

With only 72 hours until the Budget, Hunt was firmly in the damping down expectations mode, after months of nudges and hints on tax cuts. This morning it was, yes, I’d dearly love to, but don’t expect any fizz and flair.

With the government’s spending rules, and the economic watchdog the OBR breathing down his neck on one side, and the Tory backbenches who want the historically high taxes cut, it’s not a comfortable position.

But there is a wide expectation at Westminster still that he will cut some taxes, even if the moves are not significant. Let’s see.

What was also notable was the former chief economist at the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, saying the government’s self imposed spending limits, the so-called fiscal rules, are now actually harming the economy, constraining the decisions.

Recent memories of the Liz Truss market meltdown are a reminder why such rules exist, but there does seem to be growing disquiet that the system that is meant to guarantee stability, can have a negative impact too.

The law of unintended consequences often applies.

• Join me for more on next week's programme, same time, same place - tune in to weekend Newscast, and sign-up to my new email newsletter - which has its first official outing this week.

The programme is over now and we're preparing to end our live coverage - stay tuned here for Laura's final thoughts.

Before that, let's recap what we've just been covering:

• Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells Laura Kuenssberg he will only cut taxes in way that is "sensible, sustainable and for the long term"
• He adds that bringing down the tax burden would mean "being responsible with public spending and showing that we are going to spend it more carefully"
• He makes it clear that he doesn't believe in forever expanding the welfare state, because "that is incompatible with bringing the tax burden down"
• Mariano Janin, the father of 14-year-old Mia Janin, who took her own life after reportedly being bullied on social media. Janin talked with Laura about creating new and tougher cyberbullying laws
• Labour's Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson also took up that same issue, saying "We think there are problems with Online Safety Act, we think it is too slow"
• And, criticising the government's childcare plans, Phillipson says that Labour plans to reform the whole childcare system "starting with free breakfast clubs in all the primary schools"

Falling inflation... but who can take credit?published at 10:26 Greenwich Mean Time 3 March

10:26 GMT 3 March

Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter

As we heard from Jeremy Hunt earlier in the programme, he says that it is the government that has cut inflation. But is it?

Inflation measures the pace of price rises and it is the job of the Bank of England to keep inflation under control – it has a target of 2%.

The Bank’s big lever is interest rates. Raising them makes borrowing money more expensive and therefore should stop people from spending.

Higher interests should also, in theory at least, encourage more people to save money. That’s if banks passed on the full benefit of higher interest rates to their savers.

The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times from a mere 0.1% in December 2021 to the current rate of 5.25%.

Over that time, inflation has soared to a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022 – thanks to soaring costs, such as energy fuelled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – back down to 4%.

That is still twice the level of the Bank’s 2% target, but is significantly better than where things stood before.

Prior to 1997, it was the UK government, in consultation with the Bank, who set interest rates. Since then, the Bank of England has been independent and in charge of where interest rates stand.

So it is perhaps a little disingenuous for Hunt to say it is the government that is responsible for slowing inflation.

During the programme, Hunt was asked about non-dom status - so what is it?

"Non-dom" is short for "non-domiciled individual" and is a term used for a UK resident whose permanent home, or domicile, is outside the UK.

It is a description of tax status, and has nothing to do with one's chosen nationality, citizenship or resident status.

Learn more about this here.

Image source, .

By the way, if you want to read more from Laura - be the first to sign up for the Off Air with Laura K newsletter, starting this week. Get Laura's expert insight and insider stories every week, emailed directly to you.

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Rabbits stay in the hat - for nowpublished at 10:11 Greenwich Mean Time 3 March

10:11 GMT 3 March

Marc Ashdown
Business correspondent

Budgets are about choices. And the focus is sharper when they’re likely to be the last major fiscal event before voters cast judgement at the ballot box.

Put simply, the chancellor makes his pitch promising money; the country decides whether it's convinced.

"Steady as she goes," seems to be Jeremy Hunt's offer.

No firm answers today on whether National Insurance would be cut, or Universal Credit increased. Nor any clues about childcare reform, taxing non-doms, helping businesses, or restoring tax-free shopping for tourists.

For now the rabbits stay in the hat. But expect firecrackers rather than fireworks on Wednesday.

"A prudent and responsible budget for long term growth," was the telling phrase. No doubt learning the lessons of his predecessor that promising to giveaway what you don't actually have yet, tends not to end well.

And the pot to play with has dwindled too. From £30bn six weeks ago, down to an estimated £12.5bn according to the independent forecasters the OBR.

So with the need for a £6bn cushion to ward off any nasty surprises, Jeremy Hunt has about £6.5bn to offer up.

But having less money to go around might actually give us a clearer idea of where the government's priorities lie, and who they think are the most crucial key voters to help swing them the election.

Well, that went by quickly!

The programme is now finished, but here's a lookback at what Laura's panellists thought of this morning's conversations.

She began by posing a question to the group about budgets and whether Jeremy Hunt is, as he said earlier on the show, the best person for the job.

Laura puts the question to government advisor Andy Haldane first, asking him to tell viewers whether Jeremy Hunt and Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer are the "characters of the moment".

Haldane says that they're both serious people and that "these are serious times".

Sir Rocco Forte says he doesn't believe that there's a clear plan yet and that there needs to be radical changes in the way the government approaches issues in the UK.

Vicky Spratt says she doesn't believe the that the "magic dust" to solve issues in the country are going to come from Jeremy Hunt or his Labour counterpart, Rachel Reeves.

Now back on government policy on political violence and police powers, Laura asks if John Woodcock, the government adviser on the topic, was right to call for a ban on politicians engaging with groups like the Palestinian Solidarity Campaign.

Phillipson says that she agrees "that the MPs should be careful about associations that we have" and adds that the right to protest is a fundamental right.

"That is the beauty of our democracy," she concludes.

Laura asks Bridget Phillipson if she's worried about candidates like George Galloway winning more Labour seats - after his win at the Rochdale by-election on Thursday.

Phillipson replies that she "deeply regrets" what happened in Rochdale - where Labour's candidate was suspended - but that she's confident Labour will have a "strong candidate" by the time of the general election.

Read more about the Rochdale by-election here.

Image source, PA Media

Laura is continuing to press about what the Labour Party's specific plans on childcare and education are if they win the general election.

"Will you promise parents the same amount of childcare that the government has?" she asks.

Phillipson says that she wants to deliver a "reformed childcare system from the end of parental leave to the end of primary school."

"The first step will be universal free breakfast clubs in all the primary schools," she continues.

When Laura continues by asking what are Labour's plan if they are criticising the government's childcare plans. Phillipson responds by saying: "Tories are rushing it out. I am determined that a Labour government will be different."

"We will make sure integrate early years of education into the school, alongside breakfast clubs."

Bridget Phillipson says what we heard from Jeremy Hunt on childcare "is a failure".

She says that a year ago she was pushing him on childcare but that Hunt appeared to have "no plan to make it happen" and that he seemed to "not like his own policy".

The plan sees most working parents provided with 15 free hours of childcare for two-year-olds from April and for 9-month-olds next year.

Phillipson adds that childcare has to be an essential part of how the government supports parents and to give children positive opportunities throughout life.

Laura is now sitting down with Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and starts by questioning about cyber-bullying.

Phillipson says that Labour is planning to work with the families who suffered from cyber-bullying to understand what is going on and the challenges.

"It's almost impossible to understand the scale of that pain, the suffering they have experienced. Yes it's about the online world but it is also about keeping the children safe online and in school."

She reminds Laura that she has been talking about how they need to take action, especially on the fight against misogyny and sexism in schools.

"Have you come to decision on extra changes on cyber bullying law and preventing the under-16s to access social media platforms?" Laura asks.

Phillipson says that "We think there are problems with Online Safety Act, we think it is too slow. All parents absolutely worry about making sure that their children are protected."

Image source, PA

We’ve just heard from Mariano Janin, the father of 14-year-old Mia Janin, who took her own life back in March 2021.

Janin tells Kuenssberg that he believes his daughter was being cyber-bullied on social media by classmates, something he and his wife had no idea about. He is now using his platform to advocate for new cyberbullying laws to be made that can more effectively tackle the issue affecting young people globally.

When asked by Kuenssberg about what role social media played in his daughter’s death, Janin replied by saying how hard it is for young people these days, as the online world is “Unfortunately … a part of our kids’ generation”.

In the UK, there is no specific law on bullying or cyber-bullying and the courts rely on other legislation around harassment and malicious communications.

But Janin says that he sees the new Online Safety Bill, which came into law in October 2023 and aims to improve child safety on the internet, as a "first step in order to get real change".

“I think we need to do something against bullying. We need to revise the existing legislation around bullying, try to understand, try to act, try to do something,” he adds.

Continue reading more about Janin’s advocacy work here.

• If you've been affected by the issues in this story, help and support is available via the BBC Action Line

Andy Haldane is now telling Laura that he believes that UK politics should go back to the fundamentals.

"Getting people into work and making them more productive, which are the fundamentals that have not been discussed at all today.

"We should look at the skills agenda; too few people with too few skills, if you want growth you need to fill in the gap," he adds.

Jeremy Hunt has been dealt a terrible economic plan, Andy Haldane - the economist - says when responding to the chancellor's remarks.

Childcare, he says, is a terrific plan, but asks is there enough there to pay debt down. People are still feeling poorer, he adds.

Monetary policy is getting tighter, not looser, he says before saying it feels like it's going to be a "soggy" year.

Rocco says the chancellor's plans are completely underwhelming. He's the one who's raised taxes, says the hotelier.

Continuing with the panel discussion, journalist Vicky Spratt says that it doesn't sound like the new budget will have anything for housing.

"You need to see the housing in the same way as the chancellor speaks about the childcare. There is no suggestion that there is going to be anything like that," she says.

She adds that Labour doesn't seem like they have any plans on housing either.

On the topic of extremism, which has dominated the UK's political discussions this week, Laura asks if Liz Truss should face consequences for arriving at an event with MP Lee Anderson, after he was suspended from the Conservative Party for making comments widely condemned as Islamophobic.

Jeremy Hunt maintains the party line and says that's a matter for the party, but that the Tories have taken "very clear action" that shows where they stand.

Hunt is now saying he believes he will still be the chancellor by the time of the election, and he hopes to still be after the election:

"When people look at the fundamental choice, they will know that we have been through a very difficult period and that the government has a clear plan for the economy that is creating jobs, bringing investments into the UK, growing faster than similar European countries."

He believes that the choice between "that and the Labour Party that has abandoned its economic plans" will be in their advantage.

Discussing the prosperity of the country, Laura references the fact that the public sector debt is the same size as the economy.

She asks Hunt how he can be comfortable with the amount of debt in the UK.

Hunt replies that he's not comfortable with this and says he's committed to reducing the country's debt.

He references Covid, saying the government spent "billions of pounds" helping families.

However, Hunt says the pandemic is now behind us and that bringing down debt is a priority.

When asked about the issues on the new childcare plans, Hunt defends the plan saying "I believe we are on track, it's the biggest expansion of the childcare in a generation."

Hunt says that it is a huge change, "It may mean we need to employ 40,000 more people in the sector, that's why we are bringing it in stages."

Asked once again about the guarantees, Hunt says that he is confident that they are on track.

"Is childcare going to be forever part of the welfare state?" Kuenssberg asks.

"I don't believe in forever expanding the welfare state, because I don't think that is compatable with bringing the tax burden down," Hunt answers.