Supreme Court to rule on Scottish referendum plan

1. Nicola Sturgeon names 19 October 2023 for a second independence vote and accepts her plan could be subject to legal scrutiny by the Supreme Court
2. The first minister tells the Scottish Parliament that independence will not be easy but "will help us chart our own course"
3. However, opposition leaders at Holyrood tell Ms Sturgeon that she should stop obsessing about another referendum and deal with the pressing issues facing the country today
4. Ms Sturgeon will write to Prime Minister Boris Johnson asking for discussions over establishing the pathway towards a second vote on the country's future
5. When Scotland had the first referendum in 2014 it was made possible because the UK government granted the necessary power, called a Section 30 order
6. However, in the near eight years that have passed two Conservative prime ministers - Theresa May and Boris Johnson - have refused to give that order for a second time
7. Following Ms Sturgeon's statement, the PM said the details would be studied "very carefully" and the UK government would "respond properly"

Indyref2 statement: The key points

• Scotland's first minister has proposed 19 October 2023 as the date for another referendum on independence
• Nicola Sturgeon said the question would be the same as in the last referendum in 2014: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
• Ms Sturgeon said she would be writing to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ask for formal consent for the vote to be held
• She said she would press on with her plan if this was not granted
• But she stressed that any referendum would need to be lawful and constitutional - with the Supreme Court to be asked to rule on the potential legal issues around holding a vote without UK government approval. Read more here

Nicola Sturgeon proposes 19 October 2023 as date for referendum

• Douglas Ross accused the first minister of having a "selfish obsession" with indyref2
• The Scottish Tory leader said his party would not play "Nicola Sturgeon's games, we won't take part in a pretend poll"
• Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said "Scotland deserves better" and that two thirds of Scots do not want indyref2
• Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton accused the first minister of an "appalling waste of energy and focus"
• Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would study what Nicola Sturgeon has said and respond properly

• However, the PM also said the UK is a "stronger country together"

That's all from the live page team. Have a lovely evening.

Gambling over indyref2

James Cook

Scotland Editor, BBC News

Reuters

The Queen attended an armed forces parade in Edinburgh on Tuesday morning

As Nicola Sturgeon prepared to address the Scottish Parliament this afternoon, the British state was putting on a show just over the road.

At the Palace of Holyroodhouse, the armed forces were paying tribute to the Queen in an act of loyalty parade - a rare public appearance for the monarch these days.

Of course it's not the 400-year-old union of the Scottish and English crowns which the first minister wants to dissolve, but the 300-year-old union of the parliaments.

How? Part one of her strategy is to try her luck in the Supreme Court, where many legal scholars expect her to lose.

If she does, part two kicks in - fighting the next general election on the single issue of independence to try to generate political rather than legal pressure.

For its part the UK government appears confident that Scottish voters do not want a referendum now - and the polls appear to support that position.

But "not now" is by definition not a long-term strategy unless it is accompanied by a decline in support for independence.

Given that polls also suggest leaving the UK is especially popular among younger voters, it's not just Ms Sturgeon who is gambling.

WATCH AGAIN: Opposition challenge FM over indyref2

Building the indyref case goes on

Philip Sim

BBC Scotland political correspondent

In the immediacy, Holyrood will go into its summer recess after FMQs on Thursday. The first minister will be hoping she has charged things up for a season of people engaging with the debate on independence.

The Supreme Court is also due to go on its summer holidays from 29 July. It is not yet clear when judges might consider the matter of indyref2.

The case will be referred directly to the President of the court – Lord Reed, a Scottish judge – to decide how and when it will move forward.

In the meantime, the Scottish government will continue building the case for independence, with detailed policy papers expected on issues like currency and borders to come.

No question that referendum must be legal, says Lorna Slater

Getty Images

Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, says her party and the SNP were elected to Holyrood to deliver an independence referendum.

"With the best legal advice in the world you still need to take the matter to court so the first minister is quite right to push the point so there can be no question that any referendum we have is absolutely legal," she says.

"Knowing the legal status of that bill means we could move forward with a common understanding and the unionists will have to engage in the debate.

If they think the Union is so great, why can they not say so? I think it is because they can't put a good case for the Union and they are afraid they are going to lose this time."

Loran SlaterScottish Greens co-leader

Supreme Court will rule against referendum, says Cole-Hamilton

Getty Images

Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton says he does not think there will be another referendum next year.

Mr Cole-Hamilton tells BBC Scotland's Drivetime programme that the lord advocate, Scotland's top law officer, should be questioned by the Scottish Parliament.

He says it is very likely that she told the first minister that her plans for a referendum were illegal under the terms of the Scotland Act and that will be proven in the Supreme Court.

Mr Cole-Hamilton says it is a "sad and depressing day" and "a criminal waste of time and oxygen" when there are many other things we should be focussing on.

Tory MSP says he won't play first minister's games on referendum

Getty Images

Craig Hoy, from the Scottish Conservatives, says Nicola Sturgeon has wasted more time in the Scottish Parliament talking about the independence referendum.

"I think it is quite clear this is the wrong priority and it is only right therefore that we do not engage," he tells BBC Scotland's Drivetime radio programme.

Mr Hoy says it is for the Scottish government to debate how to bring forward an independence referendum because it is them who want to have it.

"It is quite clear from opinion polls that the Scottish people don't support another referendum next year and I'm not going to play the first minister's games," he adds.

The Tory MSP insists the Scottish government should be focusing on the big issues it has powers over right now.

'We need to enact the wishes of the people of Scotland'

Neil Gray says: "Obviously we set out in the election last year that we wanted to give the people of Scotland their say over their future."

When you combine the SNP and the Greens there is an overwhelming majority at Holyrood for independence, the SNP minister says.

He says his first preference would be for Boris Johnson to respect democracy, respect the will of the Scottish people and negotiate over a section 30 order.

Mr Gray accepts the prime minister has said now is not the time for indyref2, so the SNP are looking to establish the legality of the Scottish Parliament progressing with a referendum bill to ensure they can enact the wishes of the people of Scotland.

'This is about respecting democracy' - SNP minister

Getty Images

The Scottish government's Culture, Europe and International Development Minister, Neil Gray, tells Radio Scotland's Drivetime he thinks Nicola Sturgeon's route map is the right way to proceed. "We're honouring the mandate that was given to the Scottish government," he says.

"An overwhelming majority of MSPs in the Scottish Parliament last year were elected on a prospectus of delivering a second independence referendum

"So first and foremost this is about respecting democracy."

He says he hopes the Supreme Court finds in his party's favour, but if it's unsuccessful they will make the next general election a de facto referendum.

That would leave it to the Scottish people to have their democratic say, he says.

Indyref talk 'is just a massive distraction' - Labour's Murray

Getty Images

So, 19 October 2023.

That's the date when First Minister Nicola Sturgeon would like to hold a second referendum on Scottish Independence.

Legal approval for such a vote currently lies with the Supreme Court.

But if that avenue proves unforthcoming then it is always within the gift of the prime minister to allow it to take place.

Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South, tells BBC Radio Scotland's Drivetime: "It's just a massive distraction.

"I would be very interested to see the actual legal advice the lord advocate has given the first minister, because it's clear that the bill is going to the Supreme Court first, in order to determine whether or not it's legal."

Mr Murray points out that without a section 30 agreement, a referendum is not legal.

He says we are going to spend the next 18 months talking about the process of a referendum rather than key issues.

PM argues the UK is 'a stronger country together'

Getty Images

Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Speaking to reporters as he flew from the G7 summit in Germany to the Nato summit in Spain, the prime minister was asked about Nicola Sturgeon’s plans, which she announced while Boris Johnson was in the air.

Mr Johnson said: "I haven't seen anything she's said yet….We'll study it very carefully and respond properly."

I think the focus of the country should be building a stronger economy. I certainly think that we'll have a stronger economy and a stronger country together."

Boris JohnsonPrime Minister

This was a 'clever and unexpected' move, says legal expert

Getty Images

Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's Drivetime programme, Prof Aileen McHarg, a public law expert from Durham University, says Ms Sturgeon made a "clever move" today.

She says it was "unexpected" that the reference to the Supreme Court would happen in advance of a bill being passed by parliament.

Prof McHarg knows of only one previous use of the procedure - by the attorney general for Northern Ireland. The Supreme Court refused to hear that case, she says.

"This is quite an obscure process, but I think it is quite a clever way to avoid all those arguments that you would have expected about the lawfulness of a bill as the legislation is going through the parliament."

She says it's a difficult call to suggest how the case would go.

Prof McHarg adds: "The test they will be applying is: is there more than a loose or consequential connection between this bill, or proposed legislation, and the reserved matter of the Union?"

'Now is not the time to be talking about another referendum' - UK government

Getty Images

The UK government has been quick to issue its response to Nicola Sturgeon's statement.

“We are clear that now is not the time to be talking about another independence referendum," a spokesperson said.

“People across Scotland want to see both of their governments working together on the issues that matter to them. That includes tackling the cost of living, ensuring energy security, leading the international response against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing our economy. That remains our priority.

“A decision has been taken by the First Minister to publish a Bill, and the Lord Advocate has made a referral to the UK Supreme Court. UK Government law officers will now consider their response.”

The spokesperson adds that the UK government will respond to the first minister’s letter to the prime minister in due course and its clear view is that the constitution is reserved to Westminster.

'Sturgeon is acting against the will of the people'- Scotland in Union

Pamela Nash, chief executive of the anti-independence group Scotland in Union, says Nicola Sturgeon "is acting against the will of the people of Scotland".

She adds: “Poll after poll shows that the vast majority of us do not want a second referendum.

“The first minister’s announcement is a disgraceful waste of resources and public money.

The job of government is to focus on the people’s priorities – cutting NHS waiting times, improving education standards, tackling the climate emergency, creating more affordable housing, investing in social care, and growing our economy. Rather than divide the people of Scotland, as part of the UK we can invest more in public services and bring our communities together.”

Pamela NashScotland in Union chief executive

Salmond says independence will require united grassroots movement for success

PA Media

In 2014, Alex Salmond and David Cameron struck an agreement for power to hold a referendum to be transferred from Westminster to Holyrood

Alex Salmond has given his reaction to Nicola Sturgeon's statement on indyref2.

The former first minister says he welcomes the fact that "we now have some clarity of purpose on independence and that a starting gun has finally been fired with a clear timetable leading to 19th October next year".

He adds: "However, we need a united movement and grassroots campaign to deliver success. In particular, voices outwith government will be needed so that the cause of independence is not weighed down by the day-to-day troubles of the SNP/Green coalition.

"We should not give up on bending Boris Johnson to the people’s will on a section 30 order to deliver a referendum under the same terms I previously negotiated in the Edinburgh Agreement which enabled the referendum in 2014.

"There has never been a weaker UK prime minister. But that will require a concerted campaign of popular, parliamentary and diplomatic initiatives. And it is urgency which is required to stop Westminster taking Scotland to the cleaners on a daily basis."

You can hear John Beattie's interview with Mr Salmond after the 16:30 news on BBC Radio Scotland's Drivetime programme. Just click on the tab at the top of this page.

The question of Scottish sovereignty can also not simply be left to the UK Supreme Court. The concept of using the UK general election as a backstop will cause a wry smile to those within the SNP and in the wider movement who have been calling for that for the last five years. However, even then, we need to be prepared with the popular campaign which will be required to force recognition of Scotland's Claim of Right.”

Alex SalmondFormer first minister

'The stakes are high'

Kirsten Campbell

BBC Scotland political correspondent

PA Media

Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain

The fact Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain is prepared to personally represent the Scottish government in this case means it can be viewed as a genuine enterprise, not just some political “wheeze.”

But this remains a gamble for the first minister.

The Supreme Court could rule there's no case to answer, that the Scotland Act clearly reserves powers over the Union to Westminster.

The judges might decline to consider draft legislation that is still subject to amendment, preferring instead to rule on a finished bill.

The stakes are high.

Downing Street to 'carefully study the details' of indyref2 proposal

Nick Eardley

Political correspondent

Downing Street has said it will “carefully study the details” of Nicola Sturgeon’s proposal to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in October 2023.

The prime minister’s deputy official spokesman said the UK government’s position remained unchanged.

“Both ours and the Scottish government's priority should be working together with a relentless focus on the issues that we know matter to people up and down the country,” the spokesman said.

“But a decision has been taken by the first minister, so we will carefully study the details of the proposal and the Supreme Court will now consider whether to accept the Scottish government's Lord Advocate referral.”

Asked about whether the next general election would becoming a "de facto referendum" as the first minister had suggested, the spokesman said they would not get into “hypotheticals”.

IN SUMMARY: 19 October 2023 proposed as date for referendum

• Scotland's first minister has proposed 19 October 2023 as the date for another referendum on independence
• Nicola Sturgeon said the question would be the same as in the last referendum in 2014: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
• Ms Sturgeon said she would be writing to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ask for formal consent for the vote to be held
• She said she would press on with her plan if this was not granted
• But she stressed that any referendum would need to be lawful and constitutional - with the Supreme Court to be asked to rule on the potential legal issues around holding a vote without UK government approval
• Ms Sturgeon said Scotland's top law officer, the lord advocate, has agreed to refer the case to the UK's highest court, with court papers being served on Tuesday afternoon
• The first minister said she hoped the court would be able to "deliver clarity and legal certainty in a timely manner" instead of having a drawn-out process
• If the court rules that Holyrood does not have the power to hold a referendum, the FM said the next general election would become a "de facto referendum" with the SNP standing on a single issue of independence
• However, if the court rules in the Scottish government's favour, Ms Sturgeon said it would move quickly to pass its Referendum Bill, which was published while the first minister was speaking
• Douglas Ross accused the first minister of having a "selfish obsession" with indyref2
• The Scottish Tory leader said his party would not play "Nicola Sturgeon's games, we won't take part in a pretend poll"
• Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said "Scotland deserves better" and that two thirds of Scots do not want indyref2
• Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton accused the first minister of an "appalling waste of energy and focus"
• The UK government has previously stated that "now is not the time" for another referendum.
• Speaking ahead of the statement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the UK was "stronger working together"

Will Sturgeon's plan put the legal argument to bed?

Philip Sim

BBC Scotland political correspondent

What was announced today is essentially a twist on Nicola Sturgeon’s original plan for a referendum.

That was to ask for a transfer of power from Westminster, publish a bill and pass it through Holyrood, then defend it from legal challenge in court.

What changed today was that Ms Sturgeon isn’t going to wait for a legal challenge to her bill – instead, her government has moved to trigger an immediate Supreme Court showdown, to settle the question of competence once and for all.

There may be a lot of familiar elements here, but if this puts the legal argument to bed it will be a tangible step forward for the independence debate.

WATCH AGAIN: Opposition challenge FM over indyref2