'I fervently hope that the Tories lose the next election'
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Ms Sturgeon says she hopes Boris Johnson's Tories lose the next general electionImage caption: Ms Sturgeon says she hopes Boris Johnson's Tories lose the next general election
"Independence is about equipping ourselves to navigate the future guided by our own values, aspirations and interests," continues the FM.
Ms Sturgeon says it's about Scotland fulfilling its potential.
"I fervently hope that the Tories lose the next election. They thoroughly deserve to."
She turns to Labour, saying it won't take Scotland back into the EU or even the single market and neither will the Lib Dems.
'Our country deserves better'
The first minister says the Conservatives have just six MPs in Scotland and yet they have "ripped us out of the EU against our will".
She says they are intent on stoking industrial strife and provoking a trade war.
"Our young people have been robbed of opportunity.
"Our country deserves better."
Ms Sturgeon insists we are not able to restore freedom of movement and tens of thousands of children could be forced into poverty by the "merest stroke of the chancellor's pen".
'The democratic decision was clear'
BBCCopyright: BBC
Ms Sturgeon says the people have a sovereign right to determine their country's future.
The first minister tells the chamber: "Last May, the people of Scotland said yes to an independence referendum by electing a clear majority of MSPs committed to that outcome.
"The democratic decision was clear."
Ms Sturgeon argues Scotland has paid a price for not being independent.
FM begins indyref2 statement
Nicola Sturgeon gets to her feet and begins her much-anticipated indyref2 statement.
The first minister says: "The democratic rights of the people of Scotland are paramount."
'It's a very messy constitutional situation that we're faced with'
BBCCopyright: BBC
Ciaran Martin was lead negotiator for the prime minister ahead of the 2014 referendumImage caption: Ciaran Martin was lead negotiator for the prime minister ahead of the 2014 referendum
Ciaran Martin is a former UK government constitution director and was lead negotiator for
the prime minister ahead of the 2014 referendum.
Mr Martin told the BBC Scotland there are questions about the legality of whatever the first minister announces this afternoon and it will inevitably face a court challenge.
"Even if the first minister's plans do get through the courts, there's no political agreement to act on the referendum.
"This time there is no commitment from the UK government at all to do anything following any vote, that would trigger the ultimate objective of Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish government, which is an independent Scottish state.
"So to that end it's a very messy constitutional situation that we're faced with."
He warns that if the UK government were to win a court case, it could be a Pyrrhic victory as it would say Scotland has no right within the UK to leave.
"This idea of a union of equals actually has no standing in law and that could be very difficult for the UK government."
Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for indyref2
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Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will address MSPs at HolyroodImage caption: Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will address MSPs at Holyrood
Nicola Sturgeon will shortly explain how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The first minister will make a statement in the Scottish Parliament from about 14:20, after today's topical questions.
She is expected to lay out her plan for holding a lawful vote in October next year, with or without the formal consent of UK ministers.
The UK government has held firm in its view that "now is not the time" for another referendum.
The statement comes after Ms Sturgeon published the first in a series of papers earlier this month aimed at making a fresh case for independence. In the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, the No side won with 55% of the vote.
Ms Sturgeon was one of the signatories to the previous section 30 agreement, in 2012Image caption: Ms Sturgeon was one of the signatories to the previous section 30 agreement, in 2012
Ms Sturgeon wants Scotland to have another vote on independence in 2023 - and she wants the UK government to agree to transfer powers to the Scottish Parliament that would allow this to happen.
This could either be a permanent transfer via an act of the Westminster parliament - Ms Sturgeon has even drawn up a draft - or a more temporary one known as a section 30 order.
This technical name refers to the section of the Scotland Act that allows Holyrood to pass laws in areas that are normally reserved to Westminster.
These orders have been used 16 times since the devolved Scottish Parliament was created in 1999, and have allowed MSPs to legislate on topics ranging from the construction of railways to reducing the voting age in Scottish elections.
Crucially, a section 30 order was also granted by the UK government ahead of the last independence referendum in 2014 after David Cameron and Alex Salmond - then the prime minister and first minister respectively - signed the "Edinburgh Agreement".
Meanwhile, Labour's Ian Murray, the shadow Scotland secretary, said: "This is a transparent attempt to whip up division and distract from the chaos engulfing the SNP.
"Nicola Sturgeon is in no position to lecture anyone about listening to the people of Scotland, as she ignores the cost of living crisis hanging over people's lives and ploughs ahead with a costly, unwanted and damaging referendum.
"The reality is the Tories and the SNP are working hand in hand to tear communities apart in a bid to distract from their own failures."
Significant update expected, says academic
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Many Catalans feels they would be better off as an independent nationImage caption: Many Catalans feels they would be better off as an independent nation
Stephen Tierney is a professor of Constitutional Theory at the
University of Edinburgh.
He told the Good Morning Scotland programme that this afternoon's statement will be a "significant update". "I'm assuming that they do believe they have the case to proceed with a referendum, even without the consent of the UK government and parliament."
Prof Tierney says we can assume the Scottish government will apply for a section 30 order again and the big question is what they do when, and if, that request is refused, as its likely to be.
The academic points out we could see what is essentially a political discussion becoming a legal battle.
The crisis first flared in Spain in October 2017, when the banned independence referendum was met with a heavy police crackdown.
Madrid imposed direct rule on the region shortly after.
Yes or no, that was the question...
The FM is preparing to unveil her plan for holding another referendum on Scottish independence - with or without Downing Street's consent.
Nicola Sturgeon wants the vote to take place before the end of next year and insists her victory in last May's Scottish election gives her a clear mandate to do so. But the UK government is against the plans.
Blair Jenkins, who led the Yes campaign for Scottish independence, and Professor Jim Gallagher, advisor to the Better Together Campaign.
Mr Jenkins insists there is a "a clear democratic mandate" for indyref2 which is "unchallengeable".
The SNP won 48% of the vote in the election last year, "an astonishing winning margin" and the spotlight must be on Boris Johnson and his government and whether they are democrats or not, Mr Jenkins says.
BBCCopyright: BBC
Prof Gallagher argues most of the voters don't want a referendum on "Nicola's timetable" and barely half of them want a referendum at all.
He says: "The problem here is Scotland is split down the middle on the principle of independence and it's split down the middle on the question of a referendum.
"We need some way of bringing the whole country together rather than keeping splitting it apart as we've been doing for the last 10 years."
What can we expect from the FM this afternoon?
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In just under an hour the first minister will stand up at Holyrood to deliver her statement about a second independence referendum.
We're expecting more details on how the vote could happen.
The Scottish government wants to hold the poll in October next year. But Boris Johnson has said the 2014 referendum result should be respected, and opposition parties have accused the Scottish government of being obsessed with independence.
Akash Paun, a Senior Fellow for the Institute for Government think tank tells Radio Scotland's Lunchtime Live getting a section 30 order from Westminster is the gold standard for the Scottish government:
"We might still, at some future point, see that happening. Perhaps if there is a change of administration down in Westminster, who knows.
"But assuming that the UK government continues to reject the calls for a section 30 order, then we'll find out exactly what the Scottish government has in mind.
"What it can try to do is legislate for a referendum. Either a similar kind of referendum as happened in 2014, or maybe a slightly different kind of question. One that simply seeks a mandate from the Scottish people to commence negotiations with Westminster, which some people think is more likely to be legal and within the Scottish Parliament's powers."
Analysis
A positive mandate or an unwanted referendum?
Glenn Campbell
BBC Scotland Political Editor
Plan A was to win a Holyrood majority for indyref2 and watch Westminster opposition crumble. That hasn't worked.
The SNP and Greens have their majority but it has not produced a referendum deal with the UK government and there's not one in prospect.
Plan B was to introduce a referendum bill at Holyrood anyway and fight any legal challenge in court. That's still possible.
It may be there is a further initiative but exactly what that is and whether it amounts to a Plan C or not is not clear.
The details are being kept really tight. Nicola Sturgeon is only sharing details with her full Cabinet on Tuesday morning.
Ahead of her statement, she's warned UK ministers not to "thwart democracy" but the Conservatives accuse her of an "obsessive push" for an unwanted referendum.
The prime minister has said the UK is "stronger working together" - ahead of the Scottish government revealing its plans to secure a second independence referendum.
Boris Johnson told broadcasters the top priority should be dealing with current economic pressures.
Ahead of Nicola Sturgeon addressing the Scottish Parliament, the PM said: “We think the number one priority the country is facing is the economic pressure – the spikes in the cost of energy.
“Our plans for a stronger economy certainly mean that we think we’re stronger working together."
Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University and is chief commentator at the political website What Scotland Thinks.
He told the Good Morning Scotland programme about the public appetite for another referendum: "Those people who would vote No either say there should never be another referendum or at least there certainly shouldn't be one for quite some considerable time and only a minority take a different view.
"Equally amongst those who say they would vote Yes to independence, well they certainly think there should be a referendum at some point. The subtlety there is that Yes supporters don't necessarily feel that the referendum has to be held by the end of next year. What virtually all of them do seem to feel is that it should take place at some point during this parliamentary term."
The possible avenues open to the first minister seem fairly
limited, given she has repeatedly said any referendum must be both legal and
capable of actually delivering independence.
She could add flesh to the bones of the SNP’s long-standing
“Plan A” approach – to demand a transfer of power from Westminster, pass the
already-drafted referendum bill, and then defend it in the Supreme Court if
needs be.
Or, she could take the approach suggested in some quarters
of pitching a slightly different question – whether Scottish ministers should
open independence negotiations with the UK government, or something similar.
This might give it a better chance of winning the approval
of the courts – and indeed her own lawyers, who will need to sign off the plans
– but might see the pro-union side refuse to take part.
This illustrates the problem facing the first minister.
Regardless of the question of legal competence, a referendum would require full
participation from both sides if it is to be considered legitimate.
So whatever strategy Ms Sturgeon unveils, it is certain to
be accompanied by a fresh barrage of argument and rhetoric to put pressure on
opposing parties both at Holyrood and Westminster to sign up to a vote.
She will be keen to underline that the big questions should
not be for her, but rather for the UK ministers who continue to stonewall
despite the SNP’s enduring electoral success.
For all the talk of legal remedies and parliamentary
process, ultimately a political settlement is likely to be key if a referendum
is actually going to happen by October 2023.
Welcome
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Good afternoon and welcome to our live page coverage of Nicola Sturgeon's statement which will explain how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The first minister is warning UK ministers not to block her plans - but they insist "now is not the time" to revisit the debate.
Ms Sturgeon is due to get to her feet at around 2.20pm.
You can watch the statement here with us by clicking on one of the tabs at the top of the page.
Live Reporting
BBC Scotland News
All times stated are UK
'I fervently hope that the Tories lose the next election'
"Independence is about equipping ourselves to navigate the future guided by our own values, aspirations and interests," continues the FM.
Ms Sturgeon says it's about Scotland fulfilling its potential.
"I fervently hope that the Tories lose the next election. They thoroughly deserve to."
She turns to Labour, saying it won't take Scotland back into the EU or even the single market and neither will the Lib Dems.
'Our country deserves better'
The first minister says the Conservatives have just six MPs in Scotland and yet they have "ripped us out of the EU against our will".
She says they are intent on stoking industrial strife and provoking a trade war.
"Our young people have been robbed of opportunity.
"Our country deserves better."
Ms Sturgeon insists we are not able to restore freedom of movement and tens of thousands of children could be forced into poverty by the "merest stroke of the chancellor's pen".
'The democratic decision was clear'
Ms Sturgeon says the people have a sovereign right to determine their country's future.
The first minister tells the chamber: "Last May, the people of Scotland said yes to an independence referendum by electing a clear majority of MSPs committed to that outcome.
"The democratic decision was clear."
Ms Sturgeon argues Scotland has paid a price for not being independent.
FM begins indyref2 statement
Nicola Sturgeon gets to her feet and begins her much-anticipated indyref2 statement.
The first minister says: "The democratic rights of the people of Scotland are paramount."
'It's a very messy constitutional situation that we're faced with'
Ciaran Martin is a former UK government constitution director and was lead negotiator for the prime minister ahead of the 2014 referendum.
Mr Martin told the BBC Scotland there are questions about the legality of whatever the first minister announces this afternoon and it will inevitably face a court challenge.
"Even if the first minister's plans do get through the courts, there's no political agreement to act on the referendum.
"This time there is no commitment from the UK government at all to do anything following any vote, that would trigger the ultimate objective of Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish government, which is an independent Scottish state.
"So to that end it's a very messy constitutional situation that we're faced with."
He warns that if the UK government were to win a court case, it could be a Pyrrhic victory as it would say Scotland has no right within the UK to leave.
"This idea of a union of equals actually has no standing in law and that could be very difficult for the UK government."
Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for indyref2
Nicola Sturgeon will shortly explain how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The first minister will make a statement in the Scottish Parliament from about 14:20, after today's topical questions.
She is expected to lay out her plan for holding a lawful vote in October next year, with or without the formal consent of UK ministers.
The UK government has held firm in its view that "now is not the time" for another referendum.
The statement comes after Ms Sturgeon published the first in a series of papers earlier this month aimed at making a fresh case for independence. In the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, the No side won with 55% of the vote.
What is a section 30 order?
Ms Sturgeon wants Scotland to have another vote on independence in 2023 - and she wants the UK government to agree to transfer powers to the Scottish Parliament that would allow this to happen.
This could either be a permanent transfer via an act of the Westminster parliament - Ms Sturgeon has even drawn up a draft - or a more temporary one known as a section 30 order.
This technical name refers to the section of the Scotland Act that allows Holyrood to pass laws in areas that are normally reserved to Westminster.
These orders have been used 16 times since the devolved Scottish Parliament was created in 1999, and have allowed MSPs to legislate on topics ranging from the construction of railways to reducing the voting age in Scottish elections.
Crucially, a section 30 order was also granted by the UK government ahead of the last independence referendum in 2014 after David Cameron and Alex Salmond - then the prime minister and first minister respectively - signed the "Edinburgh Agreement".
Ms Sturgeon wants to follow the same process for indyref2 to ensure any referendum and its result is seen as legitimate.
Read more here.
What are the opposition parties saying?
Video content
On Sunday, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross said he would not take part in a "pretend referendum".
He accused Ms Sturgeon of playing "games" when there were more important issues facing the country.
A spokesman for the UK government said it was not the time to be talking about another referendum.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said he does not consider the pro-independence majority at Holyrood a mandate because "less than a third of the electorate" voted for the SNP.
Meanwhile, Labour's Ian Murray, the shadow Scotland secretary, said: "This is a transparent attempt to whip up division and distract from the chaos engulfing the SNP.
"Nicola Sturgeon is in no position to lecture anyone about listening to the people of Scotland, as she ignores the cost of living crisis hanging over people's lives and ploughs ahead with a costly, unwanted and damaging referendum.
"The reality is the Tories and the SNP are working hand in hand to tear communities apart in a bid to distract from their own failures."
Significant update expected, says academic
Stephen Tierney is a professor of Constitutional Theory at the University of Edinburgh.
He told the Good Morning Scotland programme that this afternoon's statement will be a "significant update". "I'm assuming that they do believe they have the case to proceed with a referendum, even without the consent of the UK government and parliament."
Prof Tierney says we can assume the Scottish government will apply for a section 30 order again and the big question is what they do when, and if, that request is refused, as its likely to be.
The academic points out we could see what is essentially a political discussion becoming a legal battle.
He also says the unofficial referendum held in Catalonia is a "salutary lesson for everyone" as it was "really a horrible situation" which nobody wants to see repeated.
The crisis first flared in Spain in October 2017, when the banned independence referendum was met with a heavy police crackdown.
Madrid imposed direct rule on the region shortly after.
Yes or no, that was the question...
The FM is preparing to unveil her plan for holding another referendum on Scottish independence - with or without Downing Street's consent.
Nicola Sturgeon wants the vote to take place before the end of next year and insists her victory in last May's Scottish election gives her a clear mandate to do so. But the UK government is against the plans.
The Good Morning Scotland programme spoke to two veterans of the 2014 referendum.
Blair Jenkins, who led the Yes campaign for Scottish independence, and Professor Jim Gallagher, advisor to the Better Together Campaign.
Mr Jenkins insists there is a "a clear democratic mandate" for indyref2 which is "unchallengeable".
The SNP won 48% of the vote in the election last year, "an astonishing winning margin" and the spotlight must be on Boris Johnson and his government and whether they are democrats or not, Mr Jenkins says.
Prof Gallagher argues most of the voters don't want a referendum on "Nicola's timetable" and barely half of them want a referendum at all.
He says: "The problem here is Scotland is split down the middle on the principle of independence and it's split down the middle on the question of a referendum.
"We need some way of bringing the whole country together rather than keeping splitting it apart as we've been doing for the last 10 years."
What can we expect from the FM this afternoon?
In just under an hour the first minister will stand up at Holyrood to deliver her statement about a second independence referendum.
We're expecting more details on how the vote could happen.
The Scottish government wants to hold the poll in October next year. But Boris Johnson has said the 2014 referendum result should be respected, and opposition parties have accused the Scottish government of being obsessed with independence.
Akash Paun, a Senior Fellow for the Institute for Government think tank tells Radio Scotland's Lunchtime Live getting a section 30 order from Westminster is the gold standard for the Scottish government:
"We might still, at some future point, see that happening. Perhaps if there is a change of administration down in Westminster, who knows.
"But assuming that the UK government continues to reject the calls for a section 30 order, then we'll find out exactly what the Scottish government has in mind.
"What it can try to do is legislate for a referendum. Either a similar kind of referendum as happened in 2014, or maybe a slightly different kind of question. One that simply seeks a mandate from the Scottish people to commence negotiations with Westminster, which some people think is more likely to be legal and within the Scottish Parliament's powers."
A positive mandate or an unwanted referendum?
Glenn Campbell
BBC Scotland Political Editor
Plan A was to win a Holyrood majority for indyref2 and watch Westminster opposition crumble. That hasn't worked.
The SNP and Greens have their majority but it has not produced a referendum deal with the UK government and there's not one in prospect.
Plan B was to introduce a referendum bill at Holyrood anyway and fight any legal challenge in court. That's still possible.
It may be there is a further initiative but exactly what that is and whether it amounts to a Plan C or not is not clear.
The details are being kept really tight. Nicola Sturgeon is only sharing details with her full Cabinet on Tuesday morning.
Ahead of her statement, she's warned UK ministers not to "thwart democracy" but the Conservatives accuse her of an "obsessive push" for an unwanted referendum.
Is there a mandate for another referendum?
PM says UK 'is stronger working together'
Nick Eardley
Political correspondent
The prime minister has said the UK is "stronger working together" - ahead of the Scottish government revealing its plans to secure a second independence referendum.
Boris Johnson told broadcasters the top priority should be dealing with current economic pressures.
Ahead of Nicola Sturgeon addressing the Scottish Parliament, the PM said: “We think the number one priority the country is facing is the economic pressure – the spikes in the cost of energy.
“Our plans for a stronger economy certainly mean that we think we’re stronger working together."
What does Scotland think?
Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University and is chief commentator at the political website What Scotland Thinks.
He told the Good Morning Scotland programme about the public appetite for another referendum: "Those people who would vote No either say there should never be another referendum or at least there certainly shouldn't be one for quite some considerable time and only a minority take a different view.
"Equally amongst those who say they would vote Yes to independence, well they certainly think there should be a referendum at some point. The subtlety there is that Yes supporters don't necessarily feel that the referendum has to be held by the end of next year. What virtually all of them do seem to feel is that it should take place at some point during this parliamentary term."
What is likely to be announced today?
Philip Sim
BBC Scotland political correspondent
The possible avenues open to the first minister seem fairly limited, given she has repeatedly said any referendum must be both legal and capable of actually delivering independence.
She could add flesh to the bones of the SNP’s long-standing “Plan A” approach – to demand a transfer of power from Westminster, pass the already-drafted referendum bill, and then defend it in the Supreme Court if needs be.
Or, she could take the approach suggested in some quarters of pitching a slightly different question – whether Scottish ministers should open independence negotiations with the UK government, or something similar.
This might give it a better chance of winning the approval of the courts – and indeed her own lawyers, who will need to sign off the plans – but might see the pro-union side refuse to take part.
This illustrates the problem facing the first minister. Regardless of the question of legal competence, a referendum would require full participation from both sides if it is to be considered legitimate.
So whatever strategy Ms Sturgeon unveils, it is certain to be accompanied by a fresh barrage of argument and rhetoric to put pressure on opposing parties both at Holyrood and Westminster to sign up to a vote.
She will be keen to underline that the big questions should not be for her, but rather for the UK ministers who continue to stonewall despite the SNP’s enduring electoral success.
For all the talk of legal remedies and parliamentary process, ultimately a political settlement is likely to be key if a referendum is actually going to happen by October 2023.
Welcome
Good afternoon and welcome to our live page coverage of Nicola Sturgeon's statement which will explain how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The first minister is warning UK ministers not to block her plans - but they insist "now is not the time" to revisit the debate.
Ms Sturgeon is due to get to her feet at around 2.20pm.
You can watch the statement here with us by clicking on one of the tabs at the top of the page.