Summary

  • Nicola Sturgeon sets out the economic arguments for Scotland leaving the UK

  • Her statement comes as new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt publicly ditches almost all of PM Liz Truss's plans to cut tax

  • In the early days of independence, the pound would stay and moves to a Scottish currency would happen "when the time is right". The FM adds that keeping sterling would be as "short as practicable"

  • Ms Sturgeon told a news conference that it was "nonsense" to suggest people north of the border would need a passport to travel to England

  • However, while people could move freely, there would be "some checks on goods" if an independent Scotland's application to join the EU was successful

  • Pressed on the border issue the first minister says that "proper planning" would be put in place and technology could help in order "not to disrupt trade"

  • Ms Sturgeon wants a second independence referendum to take place on 19 October 2023, but the UK government is refusing to give Holyrood the powers to hold it

  1. 'It will be hard work'published at 12:35 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    The first minister acknowledges that is is not enough to show that the UK economic model is failing - the Scottish government must demonstrate that independence offers a better alternative.

    She says independence is not a “miracle cure”, with no guarantees of success.

    “Our success will depend on the quality of the decisions we take - it will be hard work,” she says.

  2. No waiting for wealth to 'trickle down'published at 12:33 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    pound coinsImage source, Getty Images

    Ms Sturgeon says independence would give Scotland the opportunity it needs to create a better economy by reforming the energy market and changing employment law.

    She says it would give Scotland the power to do more to tackle the gender pay gap and age discrimination, as well as ensuring young people have the same minimum wage rate.

    The approach would be based on human wellbeing - “lifting people up so they can contribute fully” and not waiting for wealth to “tricke down”, she adds.

  3. Independent Scotland in EU likely to have border checks with rest of UKpublished at 12:30 British Summer Time 17 October 2022
    Breaking

    An independent Scotland would look to join the EU with free movement with the European Union countries, the first minister says.

    However, the proposals also set out that physical border checks on goods on the two main trunk routes between England and Scotland and at rail freight terminals would be likely.

  4. 'Independence is essential'published at 12:29 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Ms Sturgeon tells the press conference she accepts there are still big questions about independence.

    The first minister insist today's paper addresses these questions.

    Quote Message

    The UK economy is fundamentally on the wrong path For Scotland not being independent means we are being dragged down the wrong path too, a path people here did not vote for. To build a more stable sustainable economy, with fairness and human wellbeing at its heart, independence is essential."

    Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister

    That's the fundamental point made in today's paper, Ms Sturgeon tells the press conference.

    She accepts the Scottish government must demonstrate it offers a better alternative.

  5. 'The only way back to the EU is outwith the UK'published at 12:24 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    eu and scotland flagsImage source, Getty Images

    The first minister turns to Brexit, saying it will wipe billions of pounds from the Scottish economy.

    She adds: "Inexplicably, all the main Westminster parties now back it."

    The only way back to the EU is outwith the UK, she says.

    Ms Sturgeon lambasts "increasingly dysfunctional Westminster decision making".

  6. Independent Scotland to keep pound sterling - before moving to new currencypublished at 12:23 British Summer Time 17 October 2022
    Breaking

    The first minister has confirmed the policy to move to a new currency - the Scottish pound - after independence.

    But this would only happen "when the time is right" and subject to a series of tests.

    In the meantime, Scotland would keep using pound sterling.

  7. 'We now face another round of UK austerity cuts'published at 12:20 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Ms Sturgeon says it is "glaringly obvious" now that the UK does not offer economic strength or stability.

    The first minister points out "calamitous decisions" have sent mortgage rates through the roof and pension funds to the verge of collapse.

    She adds: "We also now face another round of austerity cuts."

    This will damage public services and push further people into poverty, "that is the so-called certainty" that the UK has brought us, the FM says.

  8. 'We can build a wellbeing economy that works for all'published at 12:16 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    nicola sturgeon

    Ms Sturgeon explains today's paper "makes the economic case for independence".

    She says: "Fundamentally we argue in this paper that a stronger, fairer, more sustainable economy is more possible for Scotland with independence than it ever will be with continued Westminster control."

    The first minister stresses the "vast renewable renewable energy potential" in Scotland.,

    She says with the policy levers that come with independence and with good stable governance "we can build a wellbeing economy that works for all".

  9. FM to take journalists' questions after speechpublished at 12:13 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    The first minister tells us she has a "lot of detail that she wants to cover".

    Ms Sturgeon says she will give every journalist in the room the opportunity to ask a question.

    This is in stark contrast to Lizz Truss who only fielded four questions in her last press conference.

  10. What Jeremy Hunt's announcement means for Scotlandpublished at 12:01 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Douglas Fraser
    Scotland business & economy editor

    The shredding of the Westminster mini-budget by Jeremy Hunt means a reversal of plans that would have brought an extra £500m to Holyrood over the next two years.

    Because the basic rate of income tax was due to fall in the rest of the UK, the Treasury is required by the funding formula for Holyrood to provide the same amount that it would cost if the cut were to be applied in Scotland.

    A further tax cut is remaining in place that will mean more funds will come to Holyrood. The Stamp Duty Land Tax is levied on those buying property in England and Northern Ireland.

    The raising of the threshold for that goes ahead, meaning a consequent sum is added to the Holyrood block grant, of around £60m per year.

    Other measures that were welcomed by Scottish business when Kwasi Kwarteng announced them will not go ahead: tax-free shopping for foreign visitors, which would have been a help to some retail firms, and the freeze on alcohol duty, for which whisky distillers had been campaigning.

    Potentially the biggest change in Jeremy Hunt’s budget will be the scaling back of the commitment to the Energy Price Guarantee. It lasts only six months instead of the two years previously promised, and will be reviewed from April next year, to become better targeted and geared to improved energy efficiency.

    That is likely to mean less for owners of larger homes with higher heating bills, and potentially for businesses with a big appetite for energy.

  11. 'They're asking for a yes or no answer to a really complex question'published at 11:55 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Vaila MacFarlane, 21, is an early years practitioner, who lives in Edinburgh
    Image caption,

    Vaila MacFarlane, 21, is an early years practitioner, who lives in Edinburgh

    "I do not have a strong view one way or the other," on the question of leaving the UK, says Vaila MacFarlane.

    Vaila can see both sides of the argument on whether or not an independent Scotland should retain the pound sterling for a period in an informal currency union before moving to a Scottish pound.

    Why stick with sterling and leave the Bank of England with control over interest rates if you want independence, she asks, before adding "but then also I don't think you can just make one big step. So I think you do have to use stepping stones, but I don't know if that's the best plan."

    "They're asking you for a yes or no answer to a really complex question."

  12. 'Economically, yes, there's going to be upheaval'published at 11:50 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Bosco Santimano 53 runs a social enterprise called We Can Cook and lives in EdinburghImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Bosco Santimano 53 runs a social enterprise called We Can Cook and lives in Edinburgh

    Back to the voters...

    Bosco Santimano, originally from India, is pro-independence but not a member of any party.

    He doesn't like the idea of Scotland using sterling outside a formal currency union with the rest of the UK and thinks it should immediately establish its own currency after independence.

    "One of the ways to do it, which most countries have done, is you float a Scottish pound into the global market and then you level it to the same as a British pound or any other currency or a dollar."

    He says there was "a blip" after the euro was introduced but within months the new currency settled down.

    "Economically, yes, there's going to be upheaval," he says, "But every country that got its independence had its upheaval in the first few years because they had to set up a central bank, they had to set up all the institutions. So all countries went through that process. And so if we are frightened about it, that doesn't make sense."

  13. Blackford: SNP will provide 'costed' planpublished at 11:44 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Ian BlackfordImage source, PA Media

    The SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford says today's paper, to be unveiled by Nicola Sturgeon at 12 noon, is the chance to contrast the economic opportunity of independence with the "chaos and confusion" of Westminster.

    He told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme that the SNP would show people it had a "real plan" for the economy which would create up to 380,000 jobs and make the country a "green energy powerhouse".

    “On the basis of that position, I’m convinced that the people of Scotland will come with us, but we’ll get the offering absolutely right,” he said.

    Asked if the SNP would be providing a "fully costed" plan, Mr Blackford said it would show how to create the circumstances for growth and investment, adding that "of course" it would be costed.

  14. 'Leaving the UK would make families poorer'published at 11:38 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Solomon Cuthbertson, 20, lives in the Old Town, EdinburghImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Solomon Cuthbertson, 20, lives in the Old Town, Edinburgh

    We've been asking voters for their views on independence ahead of Nicola Sturgeon's major statement.

    Solomon Cuthbertson is a third year politics student at Edinburgh University.

    "Back in 2014 I did support independence, but in the last few years I found myself drifting more towards wanting to stay in the UK," he says.

    "Looking at the challenges that we face with economics, it would make families poorer and right now with the cost living crisis I don't think that's something I can get behind," he adds.

    Solomon also has concerns about pensions and the pound. "If we leave the UK we lose any control that we have over the currency that will be used... and then if we join in the euro, it's the European Central Bank that's going to have all the power."

    Solomon, who chairs Scottish Labour Students, says the answer to the current economic turmoil lies at Westminster.

    "I don't think because we have a horrific Tory government that has done all the things it has and this led this economic disruption that we should look at leaving the UK," he says.

  15. 'Financially, this is a terrible time to go for indyref2'published at 11:31 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Michael Russell, 48,  is a civil engineer lives in PortobelloImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Michael Russell, 48, is a civil engineer lives in Portobello

    Michael Russell iss originally from the north east of England but has lived in Scotland for 20 years and is pro-union, leaning towards the Tories.

    He says he's worried about currency. "My concern is if we go for full independence it will cost us a hell of a lot more for getting simple things like mortgages."

    He is also concerned about the impact of independence on pensions and on trade.

    "Imagine the Hadrian's Wall border crossing," he says. "I think it's hugely risky."

    "Brexit isn't done yet," he adds. "We're still feeling the pain for that and I think financially this is a terrible time to go for indyref2."

  16. 'I think Scotland is in an even stronger position'published at 11:21 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Portobello
    Image caption,

    The BBC's Scotland editor James Cook went to Portobello to take a snap-shot of public opinion

    We've heard from the experts, now let's hear from the most important people - you, the voters.

    Katey McPherson is a physiotherapist who lives in PortobelloImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Katey McPherson, 40, is a physiotherapist who lives in Portobello

    Katey McPherson was briefly an SNP member and remains pro-independence.

    Katey says if there is another referendum she will vote for independence again as she did in 2014 because she feels "further and further away" from Westminster.

    "I think that Scotland is in an even stronger position economically," she adds.

    She says the currency plan after independence must involve stepping stones.

    "We're not going to just wake up one day and the whole of Scotland is going to be completely different," she argues, "we can't do that, it's impossible."

    She accepts it is possible that tax rates would rise in an independent Scotland but she says she would be "happy to pay it "if the money was going to the right places".

  17. UK's economic model is demonstrably failing - Sturgeonpublished at 11:15 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Saltire flyingImage source, Getty Images

    The first minister's press conference is expected to begin at 12:00, an hour after new chancellor Jeremy Hunt's statement.

    Nicola Sturgeon will say the UK economic model is demonstrably failing and increasingly holding Scotland back..

    Opposition politicians at Holyrood have criticised the plan to hold a referendum on 19 October next year.

    The UK government also said now was the wrong time to be talking about a new independence vote.

    On Sunday it emerged the prospectus, which will be unveiled at a media briefing in Edinburgh, will include details on how an independent Scotland would apply to join the European Union.

    The Scottish government paper will set out proposals for key issues, such as currency, trade and border arrangements.

    Read more here.

  18. How long will the transition take and at what cost?published at 11:08 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Homecoming Scotland signImage source, Getty Images

    The case for independence often starts from an assertion that Scotland already has a strong economy and can be a successful independent nation state.

    That is rarely disputed. The next question for the independence campaign is how that can be achieved.

    A further question is how long it might take to achieve its goals of economic success and stable public finances. And at what cost?

    The cost is not only to be measured in British or future Scottish pounds: there is also an "opportunity cost" of what could be achieved without the disruption that independence would inevitably require. On the contrary, there may be a higher cost of delaying independence further and paying a price for remaining within the UK union.

    Read more of Douglas Fraser's full analysis of the transition period here.

  19. How to grow the economy faster?published at 11:02 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Douglas Fraser
    Scotland business & economy editor

    Princes Street in EdinburghImage source, Getty Images

    For the new occupants of Downing Street, they see faster growth as not only an important priority for the UK economy, but the means of escaping the deficits and debts that have mounted up.

    The case for independence has a similar strand of thinking. The argument has been made that low business tax, similar to Ireland's, could accelerate economic growth. That is not heard as often now, as the room for manoeuvre on business tax has been narrowed.

    SNP policy will be under pressure to make clear whether it would seek to boost growth rates through public investment - in infrastructure, for instance, funded by more government borrowing - or through cutting some taxes.

    There are other measures that could help increase the growth rate - "supply side" measures ranging from improved education and skills to support for exporters and lower levels of business regulation.

    Read more of Douglas Fraser's analysis here.

  20. How would Scotland pay the UK government's bills?published at 10:59 British Summer Time 17 October 2022

    Douglas Fraser
    Scotland business & economy editor

    The pandemic has had a massive impact on public financesImage source, Getty Images
    Image caption,

    The pandemic has had a massive impact on public finances

    Annual figures published by the Scottish government - GERS, or Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland- indicate the starting point for tax revenue and spending levels in an independent Scotland.

    We could assume it would have freedom to reform tax and adjust tax rates, while choosing different priorities on spending.

    As things have stood in recent years, the total cost of public services, welfare benefits, and state-funded pensions in Scotland has been significantly higher than estimated tax revenue.

    Running such a government deficit is not unusual. But the deficit estimated for Scotland has appeared to be unsustainably large as a proportion of total economic output.

    Recent events with the UK's public finances have shown how markets for the bonds which governments issue to fund such deficits can push up costs and constrain government policy.

    Read Douglas Fraser's full analysis here.