That brings to a close the second day of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry in Edinburgh. Here's a recap of the major points to come out of the evidence.

• Disabled people were "imprisoned even before the pandemic", say Inclusion Scotland
• The group's convener Dr Jim Elder-Woodward tells the inquiry people with disabilities had to break shielding to get support

• Covid Bereaved Scotland (CBS) say there were concerns early in the pandemic about the ability of care homes to cope with discharged hospital patients
• Families "pleaded" with hospital bosses not to release their loved ones to free up NHS beds
• Political and medical decision makers are urged by CBS not to have "selective amnesia" when giving evidence
• The "disproportionate impact" of Covid on people and workers from BAME and disabled communities is highlighted
• Public Health Scotland accept that there was a lack of data on at-risk or vulnerable groups - including ethnic communities - at the start of the pandemic
• The Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC) says proper testing and workplace safety guidance were not in place early enough

We'll be back with coverage of tomorrow's evidence session. Paul McLaren was today's editor. The writers were Craig Hutchison, Andrew Picken and Lisa Summers.

Heather Arlidge now turns to the Scottish government's Covd-19 "route map" to take Scotland through and out of the pandemic.

The Scottish government's strategic framework, external, published on 21 May 2021, was "deliberately cautious" at that stage.

Dr Audrey McDougall explains the MAH could use Public Health Scotland data to model what might happen with varying interventions.

There was no Scottish-specific care home modelling, she says, but there was some analysis of care homes.

Dr McDougall says the MAH was very keen to get data out when it was appropriate to give a degree of transparency about what the government was doing.

Dr Audrey McDougall says commissions came to her MAH analysis hub from government for different types of modelling - for example on varying R numbers.

The chief social researcher explains as soon as governments moved to a position of making changes in policy they were asked to model the impact of those changes.

She says her group was not asked to model discharge to care homes, but they were asked about the impact from R of the closure of schools.

"We'll always say we want to be in the room at the beginning," says Dr McDougall.

"It's always a bit of a trade-off to say when MAH should be in place."

Guidelines on what would happen in the future have been written, she says.

There's that phrase - the four harms strategy - again.

Remember, it was the Scottish government's review of:

1. Direct Covid health harms
2. Broader health harms, primarily the impact on the NHS and social care services
3. Social harms to the wider society, like harms to the educational attainment
4. Economic harms

Dr McDougall tells Heather Arlidge, the junior counsel to the inquiry, that she established the Covid Monitoring and Analysis Hub (MAH) to focus solely on Covid issues.

She was also involved with setting up the "four harms strategy".

Dr McDougall explains the MAH started with around five people and she "went shopping and asked people to come and work with me".

Dr McDougall goes on to explain how the R number was calculated.

The R is the number of people, on average, that one infected person will pass on a virus to.

The next witness is Dr Audrey McDougall, who is the Scottish government's chief social researcher.

Dr McDougall joined the Scottish government in 2006 as a social researcher and has worked in various policy areas in education, poverty housing, equalities and social security.

Her particular interest is in mixed methods research bringing together people from different disciplines and traditions to work on social problems.

She works closely with the social research community across the Scottish government through the Scottish Research Leadership Group

Throughout this period of evidence, we have been hearing about the impact of Covid on ethnic communities.

The Pakistani community and other Asian communities suffered the greatest likelihood of death due to Covid, says Jamie Dawson KC in conclusion.

Queries around 'confidence intervals' and why they are importantpublished at 15:37 Greenwich Mean Time 17 January

15:37 GMT 17 January

Lisa Summers
BBC Scotland Health Correspondent

Roger Halliday and Scott Heald are being asked how statistics are gathered and presented to ministers.

The key point of this questioning is around what is known as “confidence intervals”. That is the variation, plus or minus, that exists around the estimates made in a report.

In October 2020, a much anticipated report was published by Public Health Scotland on the impact of discharging patients from hospitals to care homes.

Almost 5,000 patients were sent to care homes between 1 March and 31 May 2020 - many without a test.

At the time, in a televised briefing, the first minister announced there was "no statistical evidence" of a link between discharging patients and Covid outbreaks.

But the agency was criticised by the UK statistics watchdog for not being clear that there were uncertainties and different ways to read the data.

The report was republished in April2021 saying it “cannot rule out” a link.

We're back after a break and we return to evidence from Roger Halliday, who was the chief statistician with the Scottish government during the pandemic, and Scott Heald from Public Health Scotland.

Jamie Dawson KC returns to the inquiry's slides showing graphs of Covid stats - specifically figures on deaths with Covid.

The inquiry hears about concerns raised by a member of the public in September 2020 over a claim made by then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that around 40% of care homes in Scotland allowed and enabled indoor visiting.

It was later confirmed that this 40% figure was an approximation.

Mr Halliday says the Scottish government was subsequently advised that any uncertainty over incomplete data should be reflected in public statements and responses.

Roger Halliday explains data on disability was not recorded as standard on someone's death certificate and had to be combined with data from the 2011 census.

He says information on disability releated to mortality was not available at the start of the pandemic.

As the data experts discuss how the Covid statistics were published, it's worth remembering the most important stat of all - how many people died during the pandemic in Scotland?

The first Covid-19 death in Scotland was reported by NHS Lothian on 13 March 2020.

The latest NRS data shows there have been a total of 18,451 deaths registered in Scotland where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

It might not be headline news any more but people are still dying of Covid in Scotland every week.

Most Covid deaths occurred in hospitals and care homes.

The NRS figures break down as:

• 2020 – 6702
• 2021 – 5818
• 2022 – 3933
• 2023, including initial figures from 2024 – 1998

NRS says please note that the figure for 2023 is provisional only, and it may change as more information is made available.

Scott Heald from Public Health Scotland tells the inquiry there were good established data processes, but "one area where there is a gap is social care".

PHS does collect data from social care, but one of the challenges is the frequency of that data - as it is made available quarterly, preventing a more granular process.

The solution requires investment, he says, and it's another work in progress - particularly in care homes.

Mr Heald agrees that data about the number of people in care homes and other aspects of care would be helpful.

"This is still an area that needs further development."

Jamie Dawson KC says vulnerable people who tried to plead their case with the Scottish government found there was a lack of base data to assist them.

He asks if there was a lack of data relating to at-risk or vulnerable groups - including ethnic communities.

Scott Heald agrees that was the case at the start of the pandemic, but work was undertaken and is ongoing, for example with the BME community.

"That is very much a work in progress," Mr Heald says.

Image source, Getty Images

Nicola Sturgeon became a regular feature on our TV screens during the pandemic as she led the Scottish government ‘s coronavirus briefings.

Her no-nonsense approach and willingness to answer journalists’ questions contrasted somewhat with Number 10’s briefings led by Boris Johnson.

Initially, Ms Sturgeon was flanked by her health secretary Jeane Freeman and the chief medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood.

Dr Calderwood had to resign after making two trips to her second home during the coronavirus lockdown.

Her deputy Dr Gregor Smith, a GP, stepped into the breach and became Scotland’s chief medical officer.

The country’s national clinical director Jason Leitch was another high-profile figure throughout the pandemic, appearing alongside Ms Sturgeon and across all media outlets.

Image source, Getty Images

Mr Halliday says the government followed a code of practice for publishing statistics to make sure people could access and understand the stats.

Mr Heald agrees the Covid dashboard was informed by a lot of feedback as to what was helpful and what was not.

"We learnt over the course of the pandemic the most effective way to get that into the public domain," he adds.

Mr Halliday also points to the daily TV address by the then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, and how those briefings often began with updates on headline figures.

The inquiry is back under way, and we return to the importance of data during the pandemic.

Roger Halliday, the Scottish government's chief statistician at the time, tells the inquiry the publication of data of from the government and Public Health Scotland worked well together.

Mr Halliday explains that at the Scottish government there were more than 100 publications being used for information during the pandemic.

He says there was a difference in the mortality data for the National Records of Scotland data and for Public Health Scotland.

As we get ready for today's afternoon session, it's worth remembering why we are having Covid inquiries.

The impact of the Covid pandemic is still being felt four years on from the first reports of the virus emerging from China.

Both the Scottish and UK public inquiries are investigating the response to the pandemic.

This includes looking at the impact of the pandemic, how decisions to respond to the crisis were taken and how Covid policies were implemented.

The goal is to establish the facts of what happened during the country's response to the pandemic and then work out what lessons can be learned for future public health emergencies.

In this afternoon's evidence session Roger Halliday the chief statistician with the Scottish government will return, as will Scott Heald from Public HealthScotland.

The Scottish government's chief social researcher Dr Audrey McDougall will then be the last witness of the day.

As the inquiry breaks for lunch, here's a reminder of the headline evidence so far today.

• Disabled people were "imprisoned even before the pandemic", say Inclusion Scotland
• The group's convener Dr Jim Elder-Woodward tells the inquiry people with disabilities had to break shielding to get support

• Covid Bereaved Scotland (CBS) say there were concerns early in the pandemic about the ability of care homes to cope with discharged hospital patients
• Families "pleaded" with hospital bosses not to release their loved ones to free up NHS beds
• Political and medical decision makers are urged by CBS not to have "selective amnesia" when giving evidence
• The Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC) says proper testing and workplace safety guidance were not in place early enough
• The "disproportionate impact" of Covid on people and workers from BAME and disabled communities is highlighted

We'll be back at 13:45.