Summary

  • Finance Secretary Derek Mackay announces income tax changes that will see higher earners pay more than elsewhere in the UK - and lower earners pay less

  • Mr Mackay announces a new tax band of 21p for those earning more than £24,000

  • The higher rate of tax will be increased from 40p to 41p and the top rate from 45p to 46p

  • A starter rate of 19p in the pound will also be introduced, Mr Mackay confirmed in his draft budget

  1. Scottish Fiscal Commissionpublished at 14:04 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Labour MSP Neil Findlay says the statement has not been given to MSPs, but is told that is not a point of order.

    Mr Mackay continues saying the fundamentals of the Scottish economy remain strong.

    He says the Scottish Fiscal Commission underlines these strengths.

  2. And we're off......published at 14:04 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Derek Mackay

    Finance Secretary Derek Mackay gets to his feet and we're off.

    Mr Mackay says his proposals will put the progressive goals of the government into action.

    He says this budget is being dlivered in the most challenging of circumstances due to austeriity and Brexit.

    Mr Mackay says Scotland faces the most challenging econmic and fiscal situation of anybody in Europe.

  3. The draft budget is next...................published at 13:59 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Derek Mackay and pound coinsImage source, Getty Images/PA
  4. Postpublished at 13:59 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

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  5. Background: What's going to happen to my pay packet?published at 13:52 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Derek Mackay and saltire purseImage source, Pa

    After all that, the big question everyone will be asking remains - what's going to happen to my pay packet?

    This hinges on how the budget talks pan out, but the direction of travel very much seems to be towards rises for higher earners. This paper and the four tests in particular provide a hint of where we might end up.

    The existing ideas put forward by Labour and the Lib Dems are out, straight away, because they involve a blanket increase which would see lower earners pay more. The Conservative proposals are also out, as they wouldn't raise extra funds.

    The Green ideas are closer to the ballpark drawn out by Ms Sturgeon, but they also go very hard after the highest earners - their existing proposals might not quite fit the bill, but they are by far the most likely partners for the SNP as things stand.

    Of the alternative options laid out, the six-band behemoth might be considered too complicated, given the complexity and potential impacts on social security payments, while the three-band limited proposal might not go far enough. Something along the lines of options two and three, with four or five bands, is probably the most likely.

    One thing seems pretty sure from all of this - if you earn more than £24,000, your taxes are likely to be going up. We just have to wait for the draft budget in December to find out how, and by how much.

  6. Background: Greens and Lib Demspublished at 13:49 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Patrick Harvie and Willie RennieImage source, Colin Hattersley
    Image caption,

    Patrick Harvie and Willie Rennie

    Scottish Green's co-convener Patrick Harvie, whose party's support may be needed for the minority government to pass the budget, said no deal had been done.

    He said one of the things he would be looking for was a significant pay increase for public sector workers.

    He told the BBC's Sunday Politics Scotland programme: "We've said we want to see an inflation based - as minimum - pay increase in the public sector. Protect local government services that have been cut over many, many years.... and we can do that with fairer taxation."

    Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie called on Mr Mackay to deliver "transformative investment" in education.

    He said: "We want to invest £500m in education. We think there should be an investment in colleges, schools and nurseries and we'd do that by putting a penny on the basic rate of income tax."

  7. Revenue raised by income tax optionspublished at 13:49 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Revenue Raised by these options

    • Option 1 - £80m to £90m, £130m without behavioural change
    • Option 2A - £210m to £250m (£330m)
    • Option 2B - £190m to £270m (£390m)
    • Option 3 - £220m to £290m (£430m)
    • Option 4 - £150m to £220m (£350m)
  8. What have other other people had to say?published at 13:48 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    The Scottish Conservative leader has claimed that Nicola Sturgeon could be "coming for your pay cheque" by raising taxes for low and middle earners.

    Ruth Davidson has repeatedly urged Ms Sturgeon to rule out any increase in the basic rate of income tax.

    Her party has warned that "tax hikes would be a disaster not just for hard workers, but businesses right across the country".

    Richard Leonard wants a "radical change of direction" - but Ruth Davidson and the Tories claim that doing so would hurt workers and businessesImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Richard Leonard wants a "radical change of direction" - but Ruth Davidson and the Tories claim that doing so would hurt workers and businesses

    Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard has warned that a "radical change of direction" on taxation is needed in order to raise the money needed to save the country's public services from "unsustainable cuts".

    Mr Leonard urged Mr Mackay to "stop Tory austerity, not just tinker round the edges", and warned that the challenges facing public services are "huge".

  9. What might Mr Mackay announce on income tax?published at 13:48 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Derek Mackay and Nicola Sturgeon published a discussion paper on income tax last monthImage source, Scottish government
    Image caption,

    Derek Mackay and Nicola Sturgeon published a discussion paper on income tax last month

    The Scottish government published an options paper on income tax last month, with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon saying the country "must consider if the time has come for those who earn the most to pay a modest amount more".

    Three of the four approaches outlined in the paper would see people earning more than £24,000 pay more income tax - and all four would increase tax for those earning more than £44,290.

    The various proposals, some of which would see additional tax bands created, were predicted to raise between £80m and £290m depending on which one was ultimately adopted.

    The latter figure would more than match the £219m real-terms reduction in the UK government's block grant to Scotland which has been estimated for next year by economists at the Fraser of Allander Institute.

    BBC Scotland political editor Brian Taylor has said he believes Mr Mackay is likely to announce an increase in the additional rate for those on the very highest earnings.

    And he has predicted that an extra tax band could be created which would see those who are above the median salary of £24,000 also pay a bit more.

  10. Alternative proposals: Approach 4published at 13:44 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Approach 4Image source, Scottish government

    Here's the big one: option four, with six different bands.

    Yes, that's double what we have right now, and Tory leader Ruth Davidson has already warned of "unintended consequences" of such complexity. But it's by no means unprecedented; Japan and the USA havesevenbands. Ms Sturgeon argues that there is some evidence that more bands means more progressive.

    This is option three - dividing the standard and higher rate cohorts in two, with 1p increments - with the addition of a newlowerrate in the form of a 19p band for those at the lower end of the earnings scale.

    This is not in fact a negligible group; some 386,000 taxpayers are on a gross income which is more than the tax-free allowance, but below £15,000 - so quite a few people would end up taking home more money at the end of the month.

    This means this model might not raise quite as much money as options two and three - between £150m and £220m, adjusted for behavioural change - but it does tick that "more progressive" box in Ms Sturgeon's four tests.

    However, this comes at the cost of added complexity - lowering taxes for those on low incomes could cause complications with social security payments, for those who receive them.

  11. Alternative proposals: Approach 3published at 13:43 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Approach 3Image source, Scottish government

    Just in case you thought you had a handle on this from a complexity perspective, option two is divided in two.

    This plan adds an extra band, by effectively splitting the lower end of the spectrum in two. Earnings below the £24k median salary would stay in a 20p band, but there would be a extra 21p band for those earning between the median and the higher rate.

    So instead of 2.1m people on the basic rate, there would be 1.2m on a 20p rate and 900,000 on a 21p rate.

    Option two also adds a penny to the higher rate, and - here's where it diverges into 2A and 2B - either 3p or 5p to the additional rate.

    This is where behavioural change really comes into play. The government reckon that option 2A could potentially raise more money than 2B - despite featuring a lower top rate of tax.

    The forecast for 2A is between £210m and £250m, adjusted for behaviour, while 2B is £190m and £270m. So there are higher potential returns for the higher-tax option - but equally it could end up bringing in less money if it pushes higher earners either into cutting their hours or moving house.

    This underlines that it's not as simple as just putting taxes up to raise more money - there can be knock-on effects which could actually have the opposite effect.

  12. Alternative proposals: Approach 2published at 13:43 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Approach 2Image source, Scottish government
    Image caption,

    Approach 2

    Just in case you thought you had a handle on this from a complexity perspective, option two is divided in two.

    This plan adds an extra band, by effectively splitting the lower end of the spectrum in two. Earnings below the £24k median salary would stay in a 20p band, but there would be a extra 21p band for those earning between the median and the higher rate.

    So instead of 2.1m people on the basic rate, there would be 1.2m on a 20p rate and 900,000 on a 21p rate.

    Option two also adds a penny to the higher rate, and - here's where it diverges into 2A and 2B - either 3p or 5p to the additional rate.

    This is where behavioural change really comes into play. The government reckon that option 2A could potentially raise more money than 2B - despite featuring a lower top rate of tax.

    The forecast for 2A is between £210m and £250m, adjusted for behaviour, while 2B is £190m and £270m. So there are higher potential returns for the higher-tax option - but equally it could end up bringing in less money if it pushes higher earners either into cutting their hours or moving house.

    This underlines that it's not as simple as just putting taxes up to raise more money - there can be knock-on effects which could actually have the opposite effect.

  13. Postpublished at 13:42 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

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  14. Alternative proposals: Approach 1published at 13:41 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    If none of the party proposals completely fit the bill, what might we end up with?

    The paper sketches out "alternative approaches", with options featuring three, four, five or even six tax bands.

    Let's look at them in detail...

    Approach 1Image source, Scottish government

    Option one: a three-band approach, with the basic rate untouched, and the higher and additional rates knocked up by a penny.

    This would raise between £80m and £90m, with potential behavioural changes factored in (i.e. people cutting the number of hours they work, or at the more extreme end of the scale just leaving the country altogether).

  15. Background: Nicola Sturgeon sets out Scottish income tax optionspublished at 13:41 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Nicola SturgeonImage source, SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT

    At the start of November, the Scottish government set out a range of options for future income tax rates.

    First Minister Nicola Sturgeon published a discussion paper, externalon rates, posing "tough questions" about rises.

    The paper details the potential impact of tax plans advanced by the SNP and by opposition parties, and sets out tests by which these can be judged.

    Finance Secretary Derek Mackay has been having open talks with other parties in a bid to build a majority for his budget.

    Read more here.

  16. Analysis by Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland political editorpublished at 13:39 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Brian Taylor
    BBC Scotland Political Editor

    Nobody likes paying income tax. Nobody likes paying more income tax. Therefore, the draft budget is potentially a challenge in terms of public support.

    It is particularly a challenge given that the largest opposition party to the SNP are the Conservatives and the Conservatives will mount a very, very strong attack based upon any tax changes whatsoever.

    Mr Mackay will seek to rebut that by accusing the Conservatives of hypocrisy - by saying that they demand spending on pet projects while at the same time demanding tax restraint.

    Again, it will depend on what the public hears with regard to this - whether they listen to the government or whether they listen to the opposition, the Conservatives.

  17. And now...........................it's budget buildup time!published at 13:37 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Derek Mackay and Nicola Sturgeon published a discussion paper on income tax last monthImage source, Scottish government
    Image caption,

    Derek Mackay and Nicola Sturgeon published a discussion paper on income tax last month

    Scotland's finance secretary is expected to confirm income tax rises for middle and higher earners when he unveils his draft budget for next year.

    Derek Mackay will say the increase in taxation is needed to raise more money to help protect public services.

    It will see many people in Scotland pay more income tax than those on the same salary elsewhere in the UK.

    But First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that 70% of taxpayers will pay no more than they do at present.

    The Scottish government was given powers over income tax rates and bands last year.

  18. Closures will be a 'body blow' to communities - Paul Wheelhousepublished at 13:37 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    Business Minister Paul Wheelhouse
    Image caption,

    Business Minister Paul Wheelhouse

    Business Minister Paul Wheelhouse says the Scottish government "stands ready to work with UK ministers and the banks".

    He says the closures will be a "body blow" to communities.

    Mr Wheelhouse says if branches are to close, the government will work to find "practical solutions".

    "The services do not yet meet the need to all customers," he says.

    "Face to face contact in a private space is still a core aspect that banks provide."

    He says the UK government do need to be pressured more into taking action, but "acknowledges the support of the Scottish Conservatives on that".

  19. Banks and corporations have a 'social responsibility' - Alex Neilpublished at 13:31 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

    SNP MSP Alex Neil
    Image caption,

    SNP MSP Alex Neil

    SNP MSP Alex Neil says: "It's high time these banks and corporation accept they have a social responsibility."

    Mr Neil says: "They don't care about these communities."

  20. Postpublished at 13:22 Greenwich Mean Time 14 December 2017

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