Summary

  • First up this morning we hear from Professor Anand Menon, who is the director of The UK in a Changing Europe.

  • The tourism committee takes evidence on the tourism tax from the Scottish Tourism Alliance who have called for more engagement on the issue.

  • Nicola Sturgeon faces questions to the first minister for the last time before the October recess

  • Health Secretary Jeanne Freeman delivers a statement on health and care

  • The government leads a debate on Women and Girls in Sport Week

  1. British citizens living in EU now will be immediately impacted by no dealpublished at 09:55 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    SNP MSP Kenneth Gibson
    Image caption,

    SNP MSP Kenneth Gibson

    SNP MSP Kenneth Gibson highlights suggestions that migrants would have to earn £50,000 before they were able to come to the UK.

    What impact does this announcement have on negotiations, he asks.

    Prof Menon says it will cause a hardening of attitudes and make it harder for Brits to move to EU states.

    Brits currently living in other EU states will be most badly effected by a no deal, he adds.

    Nothing has been done legally to see what happens to British nationals because they are waiting for a withdrawal agreement, the academic explains.

  2. Inevitable tragedy of Brexit is Gibraltar is overlooked says academicpublished at 09:48 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Lib Dem MSP Tavish ScottImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Lib Dem MSP Tavish Scott asks about the impact of Brexit on Gibraltar

    Lib Dem MSP Tavish Scott asks a practical question, positing that if he is one of 20,000 Spaniards who cross the runway into Gibraltar every day, what's going to happen at the end of March next year?

    Prof Menon replies: "The honest answer I should give you is I'm not entirely certain."

    He elucidates that in the short term, with the transition period, very little will happen he says.

    Gibraltar has been British territory for more than 300 years but Spain claims sovereigntyImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Gibraltar has been British territory for more than 300 years but Spain claims sovereignty

    The danger is a weak nationalist Spanish government decides hardball over Gibraltar, adds the academic.

    "One of the perhaps inevitable tragedies of the Brexit process is how, given the stakes in what is going on, places like Gibraltar and places like the Channel Islands have been overlooked."

    The government of Gibraltar have been tireless in raising their case, he adds.

  3. What would happen if the UK held another vote?published at 09:44 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Green MSP Ross Greer
    Image caption,

    Green MSP Ross Greer

    Green MSP Ross Greer wonders how Prof Menon's thinks the EU27 would react to any further vote on the UK's membership of the EU, should the People's Vote campaign be successful domestically.

    Prof Menon points to a report from UCL's Constitutional Unit, external which sets out the steps.

    The EU, at least in public, would have to be open to us staying, he explains.

    No one legally knows whether we could unilaterally revoke article 50 or whether we would have to go back to the negotiating table.

    Mr Greer is of course one of the politicians pursuing a legal case on whether this can happen - the European Court is to make a ruling on this.

  4. Brexit is 'a triumph of politics over economics'published at 09:36 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Brexit

    SNP MSP Stuart McMillan asks the professor if he has seen any semblance of common sense from the political players, particularly in regard to the Irish border issue.

    Prof Menon says both sides are committed to not having a border in Northern Ireland, but they differ in how to do this.

    He explains the Brexit vote can be described as "a triumph of politics over economics".

    With the clock counting down to the UK's scheduled exit on 29 March 2019, where does this latest row leave the chances of a deal and what could happen next in the Brexit process?

    Click here to find out!

  5. 'Several games of simultaneous chicken'published at 09:27 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Prof Anand

    We have "several games of simultaneous chicken" at the moment, says Prof Menon.

    "Everyone is assuming everyone else is talking tough but will soften towards the deadline."

  6. 'The EU has kept it's public unity quite impressively'published at 09:24 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    EU 27 plus UKImage source, bbc/EU Map

    SNP MSP Annabelle Ewing also asks about the Irish backstop issue.

    Ms Ewing asks about the views of the 27 EU countries.

    Prof Menon explains there is rumour and counter-rumour about this, with the FT suggesting the Irish government is softening it's approach to the issue.

    "The EU has kept it's public unity quite impressively."

    There are divisions and concerns but they are not breaking through politically at the moment, he adds.

    Prof Menon says the more the heads of governments get involved the more trade offs will occur.

    It seems to me very very unlikely that EU unity is going to break publicly to our benefit, he concludes.

  7. When will a deal have to be negotiated by?published at 09:21 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Ms McAlpine asks when the withdrawal will have to be negotiated by.

    Prof Menon suggests mid-January at the latest in order to ensure sign-off by the end of March.

    It will be difficult for the prime minister to extend to deadline beyond that, he states.

    The academic also highlights the European elections in May which will essentially stop the process for a few months.

    Comm

    SNP MSP Kenneth Gibson asks about the transition period.

    Prof Menon says this is not really covered by article 50 but it does not look like it will be legally challenged so "so far, so good".

    Untangling from EU institutions, policies and processes is going to be staggered, but this is separate from transition which really focuses on the economic terms.

  8. 'I don't think Chequers will fly'published at 09:14 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    The marathon cabinet meeting at Chequers lasted nearly 12 hoursImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    The marathon cabinet meeting at Chequers lasted nearly 12 hours

    Committee convener Joan McAlpine raises the issue of a backstop solution to the Irish border question.

    Prof Menon says the EU Parliament does have a vote on the terms of the deal.

    He says there are several instances when the EU Parliament has waved its principles, with the integrity of the four principles somewhat altered.

    They are insisting they won't do that for the UK however, Prof Menon explains.

    "I don't think Chequers will fly."

    He says he does think a solution will be found to the Irish border question, with some differentiation required for Northern Ireland.

    In July the cabinet reached an agreement on the UK's future relationship with the EU after Brexit.

    Here are the key points from the three page deal published by the government., external

  9. 'It's impossible to know where we are going to end up'published at 09:09 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Prof Menon
    Image caption,

    Prof Menon from UK in a Changing EU

    Prof Menon says it is difficult to answer the question of where in the Article 50 process we are.

    "It's impossible to know where we are going to end up."

    He suggests it is possible to logically trace a route to any number of endpoints from now.

    Leaving the single market and customs union will have a "profound impact" on the economy, "there's no point in trying to deny that," Prof Menon says.

    The EU is willing to consider a unique solution for Norther Ireland but that does not mean they will for Scotland, he adds.

  10. Background: Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EUpublished at 09:07 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    flagsImage source, bbc

    Click here for an easy-to-understand guide to Brexit - beginning with the basics, then a look at the current negotiations, followed by a selection of answers to questions we've been sent.

  11. And we're off........................published at 09:04 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    Professor Anand MenonImage source, bbc
    Image caption,

    Professor Anand Menon

    Professor Anand Menon begins with an opening statement on the Article 50 negotiations.

    Here's Prof Menon's submission., external

  12. We begin with MSPs taking evidence on Article 50 negotiations.......published at 08:58 British Summer Time 4 October 2018

    BrexitImage source, bbc

    First up this morning we hear from Professor Anand Menon, who is the director of UK in a Changing Europe, external.

    Anand Menon is Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London.

    The organisation says it promotes rigorous, high-quality and independent research into the complex and ever changing relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU).

    Read Prof Menon's submission here., external

  13. Welcome to Holyrood Live!published at 16:03 British Summer Time 1 October 2018

    FMQs collageImage source, Scottish Parliament/PA
    Image caption,

    This will be the final clash between Ruth Davidson and Nicola Sturgeon for some time.......

    Good morning and welcome to Holyrood Live on Tuesday 2 October 2018.

    The Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Affairs Committee , externalwill shortly take evidence on Article 50 negotiations from Professor Anand Menon, the director of UK in a Changing Europe, external.

    MSPs take evidence on the introduction of a tourism tax from, among others, the Scottish Tourism Alliance who have called for more engagement on the issue.

    First minister's questions will be the last chance to see Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson in the chamber for some time as she goes on maternity leave shortly after.

    This will be bookended by general questions before it and a member's debate marking Challenge Poverty Week after.

    Scottish Womens' football team qualify for the World CupImage source, SNS GROUP/SFA ROB CASEY
    Image caption,

    Scottish Womens' football team qualify for the World Cup

    The government deliver a 'Health and Care Update', which will be delivered after lunch - could this be in connection to the letter Health Secretary Jeane Freeman sent to EU staff working in the NHS at the weekend?

    The Scottish government debate will highlight Women and Girls in Sport Week and no doubt there will be a great deal of praise of Scotland's women's football team.