Keep an eye on tactical votingpublished at 13:32 British Summer Time 7 May 2021

13:32 BST 7 May 2021

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

Over the next few hours, as Scottish results drip in, keep an eye out for the battle between SNP turnout and pro-union tactical voting.

I’m told Labour are confident in Edinburgh Southern – and believe tactical voting for their candidate has gone up. Labour sources believe that’s happening in some other places where there is an obvious challenger to the SNP.

Contrast that with Edinburgh Central, one of the top target seats for the SNP. The Tories are admitting that it is looking difficult for them in Ruth Davidson’s old seat.

If the SNP win there, the path to an overall majority is a bit clearer. In places like Dumbarton and East Lothian – where Labour will rely on tactical voting to hold the seats – things are still up in the air. It’s early in the day – apply caution. But keep an eye on this.

Which party will benefit most from a high turnout?published at 13:27 British Summer Time 7 May 2021

13:27 BST 7 May 2021

Philip Sim
BBC Scotland political correspondent

It appears that turnout has gone up for this election – every seat which has verified ballots so far has reported a rise of 5-10 points. However, it’s extremely hard to know what this means for the result.

In 2016, the SNP did very well in seats with low turnout – if you rank the 73 constituencies by turnout, the SNP won the 41 seats with the lowest turnout, but only three of the top 10 with the highest turnout.

However, they were the party which lost out due to fluctuations in turnout between the UK elections in 2015 and 2017, when many of their supporters stayed home.

Ultimately, we don’t know *who* has turned out to vote. Has one party been more successful than others in getting their supporters to the polls, or in encouraging tactical voting? Have those who signed up for postal ballots made the difference, and which way do they split? Will the effect be uniform, or different region by region?

Hopefully, the answers to some of these questions will start to become clear in the coming hours.

Image source, PA Media

Jackie Dunbar is the first SNP MSP to be elected after taking Aberdeen Donside comfortably, a hold for her party.

The previous MSP Mark McDonald had to resign from the SNP after sending an inappropriate text message to a woman. He then became an an independent MSP.

The turnout was 57.8% with a swing of 6.2% from the SNP to the Conservatives.

This was nowhere near enough to present a serious threat to the SNP, who won by more than 9,000 votes.

The SNP's Jackie Dunbar has won Aberdeen Donside, with a majority of 9,000.

The Conservatives were second, up 8% on 2016. Labour were third, down 3%.

Full result here

Scottish Labour MSP Jackie Baillie calls the Hartlepool by-election a "disappointing result".

She says the Labour Party must "listen to what the voters are telling us", and start to rebuild the party both in the UK and particularly in Scotland.

She says the work in Scotland started with the election of Anas Sarwar as a new leader 10 weeks ago.

On why voters have turned away from the party down south, she said: "They felt we were out of touch with their concerns and that is deeply worrying for us and something we need to address quite urgently."

She also says she does not believe Anas Sarwar "sat on the fence" when it came to the independence argument.

She said: "We have said quite clearly we are opposed to independence and we are opposed to an independence referendum right now because the recovery is the most important priority for every party in the Scottish Parliament.

"And that was echoed back to us on the doorsteps."

Liam McArthur has been re-elected as the MSP for Orkney.

Mr McArthur praises the hard work of the staff that have made his constituency the first to declare.

After the traditional thank yous, he praises his campaign team.

The Lib Dem vote was actually down with a 4.8% swing from the party to the SNPs Robert Leslie.

The turnout was 65.4%.

Image source, bbc

The first result of the 2021 Scottish Parliamentary elections sees the Lib Dems' Liam McArthur hold Orkney.

The constituency seat was one of just four that the Lib Dems won in 2016.

Full result here

Douglas Ross says it is very difficult to get a handle on what is happening at the count in Elgin.

The Scottish Conservative leader says: "It's such early days... it's really difficult to have an overview for you yet at this stage of the count."

He won't be drawn into saying what a success for his party would look like at this stage.

Mr Ross says there has been a very good result in Hartlepool for the Conservatives.

What are the key seats to be declared on Friday?published at 13:08 British Summer Time 7 May 2021

13:08 BST 7 May 2021

Philip Sim
BBC Scotland political correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

The Electoral Management Board is projecting we will know the results of 48 of the 73 constituencies by the end of today.

Friday's constituencies include both the most marginal and safest seats from 2016, and eight of the SNP's top 10 target seats.

These include the Labour defences of Dumbarton, Edinburgh Southern and East Lothian - none of which have a majority exceeding 3% - and the Conservative seats in Ayr, Edinburgh Central, Dumfriesshire and Eastwood.

If the SNP manage to pick off the lion's share of these seats, they will feel good about going into Saturday and winning a majority.

This will particularly be the case if they can gain ground without suffering defeats in any of their own more marginal seats - Angus North and Mearns, Moray and Perthshire North are those with single-digit majorities.

The reverse is also true of course - if the SNP struggle to gain many of these marginal seats or lose some of their own, the path to a majority narrows.

By the end of Friday, it should be fairly clear which way the wind is blowing - but there will still be plenty to play for on Saturday.

Read more from Phil Sim here.

Hope Webb
News reporter on BBC Radio Scotland

Image source, PA Media

All eyes are on the Dumbarton seat, but we're not expecting that declaration until around 20:00 tonight.

Labour's Jackie Baillie currently holds that seat, she has done so since 1999. There's only a handful of constituencies that have had the same MSP for so long.

An indication of how Labour are doing today will come from that vote. It is the most marginal seat in Scotland, last time in 2016 she held on by just 109 votes.

The first results of this election shouldn't be too far away. Clydebank and Milngavie could be the first result, although Orkney is also being tipped for an early declaration.

Here is a reminder of how many seats each party won in the last Holyrood election, in 2016.

• SNP 63 seats (59 constituencies, 4 on regional list)
• Scottish Conservatives 31 (7 constituencies, 24 on list)
• Scottish Labour 24 (3 constituencies, 21 on list)
• Scottish Greens 6 (0 constituencies, 6 on list)
• Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 (4 constituencies, 1 on list)

Of the 73 first-past-the-post seats, 48 expect to declare at some point today. They include:

• Aberdeen Central, Aberdeen Donside, Aberdeenshire East, Airdrie and Shotts
• Angus North & Mearns, Argyll & Bute, Ayr, Banffshire & Buchan Coast
• Caithness, Sutherland & Ross; Clackmannanshire & Dunblane, Clydebank & Milngavie
• Coatbridge & Chryston, Cowdenbeath, Cunninghame North, Cunninghame South
• Dumfriesshire, Dumbarton, Dundee City West, East Lothian, Eastwood
• Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh Southern, Edinburgh Western
• Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, Falkirk East, Glasgow Anniesland
• Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn, Glasgow Pollok, Glasgow Southside
• Greenock & Inverclyde Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, Inverness & Nairn
• Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, Kirkcaldy, Linlithgow, Midlothian North & Musselburgh
• Moray, Motherwell & Wishaw, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, North East Fife, Orkney
• Paisley, Perthshire North, Renfrewshire North & West
• Rutherglen, Shetland, Stirling, Strathkelvin & Bearsden

For the full list across Friday and Saturday, click this link.

Mornings with Stephen Jardine
BBC Radio Scotland

BBC Scotland reporter Steven Godden, who is at the count in Glenrothes, says the first results from there are not expected until early evening.

"The main interest is north-east Fife and that's the seat being contested by the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Willie Rennie.

"It really has been a ding-dong contest between the Lib Dems and the SNP in this seat over the years."

What is the Boris effect in Scotland?published at 12:23 British Summer Time 7 May 2021

12:23 BST 7 May 2021

Andrew Kerr
Scottish political correspondent

Conservatives in England are rejoicing. After 11 years of Tory prime ministers, they’re still able to win a by-election.

The Boris (+Brexit) effect seems to be a draw for voters with people in Hartlepool sending a clear message and Labour left licking their wounds. Even with all the coverage about curtains in the Downing Street flat and comments about “bodies piled high”, Sir Keir Starmer can’t make inroads.

What is the Boris effect then in Scotland? The prime minister stayed clear of the campaign here and all the stories must have made hard reading for Douglas Ross & co.

Image source, Getty Images

Everything is still up in the air – and in the key heartland of the north east I hear the Tory vote has “held up”. But I think there is a bit of concern. In one patch of the north east, thousands of calls were made – and those who were opposed to indyref2 but not voting Tory cited the “Boris effect”.

In some parts, Tory sources think turnout was higher in wealthier areas. There’s a worry it could be middle-class types who are opposed to indyref2 – but oppose the PM more – and thus opt for the SNP.

New health secretary will face a 'mighty big job'published at 12:06 British Summer Time 7 May 2021

12:06 BST 7 May 2021

Lisa Summers
BBC Scotland health correspondent

Image source, PA Media

No matter who wins the election, there will be a new ministerial face with a mighty big job.

Former health secretary Jeane Freeman, 67, decided not to stand for re-election in her Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley seat, saying she would be in her seventies by the end of the next parliamentary term and had "more she wanted to do".

Her priority before the pandemic had been to improve waiting times for treatment, but the focus on Covid this past year has only increased the backlog.

All the parties have made NHS recovery a key priority. There are commitments to create centres where more routine operations can take place, to improve cancer diagnoses and access to treatment. Mental health and staff recovery feature highly too.

But finding the finances and staff to get the health service back to where it needs to be, and to cope with ever increased demands, will be a tough task.

Tune into BBC One Scotland for eight hours of live coverage of the election results from 12:00.

Election 2021 Scotland will be presented by Rebecca Curran and have expert analysis from BBC Scotland's political editor Glenn Campbell.

As the story unfolds, a panel of politicians and political commentators will be quizzed by broadcaster Gary Robertson.

Laura Miller and Laura Goodwin will be on hand to bring the latest news.

Rajdeep Sandhu and Sally Magnusson will report live from outside the Scottish Parliament. And David Wallace Lockhart will outline what the results mean - with the assistance of a state-of-the-art graphic explainer.

Iain Macinnes
BBC Scotland

At the last Holyrood election, the Highlands and the Western Isles turned solid SNP-yellow.

Key seats to watch this time are Moray - which now has a Conservative MP at Westminster and where the Tories are looking to challenge the SNP - and Caithness, Sutherland and Ross where the Lib Dems are fighting hard against the SNP.

A number of senior SNP figures are competing in Highland seats - Kate Forbes, Fergus Ewing, Richard Lochhead and Maree Todd.

While we may see little change in the constituencies, the regional list is where we could see a rainbow of results with the main parties, as well as the Alba party and the independent candidate Andy Wightman, all in the running to pick up seats.

Newsnight

"Absolutely not," according to SNP deputy leader Keith Brown, who says the Scottish Parliament could still have a majority of pro-independence MSPs even if the SNP do not reach the 65 seats needed for an outright majority on their own.

"If you think about the House of Commons, how many votes in recent years have been passed by a collection of different parties, but nobody questioned the fact that the majority would win," Mr Brown told BBC's Newsnight programme.

"If a majority of MSPs are elected with independence and a referendum in their manifesto, and they then vote that through the parliament, that is a mandate and it will be the people of Scotland who have the final say, not Boris Johnson."

Mr Brown said PM Johnson and the UK government would face a "substantial backlash, not just from the people of Scotland but from around the world" if they attempted to block a second independence referendum via the courts.

“Scotland, if it votes for a referendum, will have its referendum,” he added.

Richard Lochhead, who is running as the SNP candidate for Moray, is voluntarily self-isolating while a member of his family awaits the result of a Covid test.

It means he will not be attending the Moray constituency count in person, he said in a tweet. , external

"It wouldn't feel right given the number of people who will be there," said Mr Lochhead, who has served as an MSP since 1999.

There has been a surge of coronavirus infections in Moray in recent days, where the infection rate of more than 81 cases per 100,000 is four times the Scotland-wide level.

Vaccination of younger adults is to be accelerated and health officials are urging everyone to take up asymptomatic testing.