Thanks for joining us for our coverage of today's coronavirus briefing as Wales prepares for winter.

Some of the main developments include:

• Christmas this year will be "more like the ones we're used to", Mark Drakeford says
• New rules starting today will make it easier to visit loved ones in care homes
• Covid passeswill be needed for large gatherings and nightclubsfrom Monday, with the first minister expecting this to happen "relatively smoothly"

• The case rate has dipped below 500 per 100,000 people for the first time since mid-September

• A spot-check system means not everyone attending Wales' rugby internationals will be asked for a pass

• There are concerns over higher levels of flu this winter

Businesses say the news they will probably not be facing another winter lockdown is positive.

Nicki Collier, who manages Bluebell Coffee and Kitchen in Tycoch, Swansea, says: "It's really reassuring to hear some good news finally. Shutting overnight last year was a really big shock.

"Fingers crossed now this is good news for this Christmas."

Neil Collier, owner of Colliers Photo Imaging in Uplands, added: "It's reassuring definitely, because the last Christmas with the sudden lockdown was quite a hit, especially with all of the Christmas stock we ordered in we had a lot of panicked customers wondering if they were going to get their orders.

"I think it's more security for business trade going into the winter months which is potentially our busiest period."

Image source, Getty Images

"It would be disastrous to have the situation we had last year with both a firebreak and then the lockdown right before Christmas," says Sara Jones of the Welsh Retail Consortium.

"Both of those lockdowns happened during the golden quarter.

"Hospitality and retail they tend to go hand in hand these days. So we'll be hoping that businesses right across the high street will remain without restriction as we move into the Christmas period."

Image source, Getty Images

All businesses in Wales are likely to be able to remain open throughout the winter, the Welsh government has said.

Ministers said the most likely scenario is that Wales slowly moves out of the pandemic to a position where coronavirus becomes a seasonal illness.

First Minister Mark Drakeford said Wales remains at alert level zero, with no changes likely in the next three weeks, beyond those already announced.

But there is a "Covid Urgent" plan if a new variant risks overwhelming the NHS.

In a statement outlining Wales' Covid winter planning, the Welsh government said such a scenario could be the emergence of a new, fast-spreading variant or if vaccine immunity levels fall, causing a rise in pandemic pressures.

Image source, Getty Images

In Wales, about one in 55 people is estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to 2 October, unchanged from the previous week and still the highest since the week to 23 December 2020.

In Northern Ireland, the latest estimate is one in 130, down from one in 65 the previous week.

For Scotland, the Office for National Statistics estimates about one in 60 people had Covid-19 in the week to 2 October, down from one in 55 the previous week.

All figures are for people in private households.

First Minister Mark Drakeford says there is also concern over higher levels of flu this winter.

The hospital admission rate for younger, unvaccinated people with Covid in Wales is more than three times higher than for those who have been fully vaccinated, latest Public Health Wales analysis shows.

More than 1,100 admissions over the month to 26 September were looked at.

It found that the hospital admission rate for those under 60 was 14 admissions per 100,000 people for those fully vaccinated – but it rises to 45 per 100,000 for those unvaccinated.

Looking at admissions for all ages, the admissions rate was 45.7% higher for those unvaccinated.

Some trial participants have had difficulty accessing a booster vaccination or Covid international travel pass, health minister Eluned Morgan says.

About 1,400 people in Wales took part.

"This is because not all trial participants received a vaccine approved by the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Authority," she adds.

"Today, the chief medical officer for Wales has written to trial investigators and NHS medical directors across Wales to set out the process for addressing this issue as quickly as possible.

"From tomorrow, trial participants will start to receive letters explaining how, if they meet the eligibility criteria, they will be offered their booster, or if they require one, how to get a further primary course of vaccine to enable them to get a Covid travel pass."

The first minister says lateral flow tests could be offered instead of PCRs to some less-vulnerable groups if the NHS cannot offer everyone a PCR test during the winter.

“We are just making a plan in case, in the depths of the winter, when there might be a lot of flu about… if we came to a day we couldn’t offer everybody a PCR test, we’d still be offering everybody a test," he says.

“For people in the lower-risk categories some people may find themselves having a lateral flow test as the first line of defence, and only those people who test positive go on to need a PCR test.”

He adds there are no plans to charge for PCR tests.

Welsh Conservatives health spokesman Russell George has welcomed moves to make it easier to visit care homes, "so people can visit loved ones".

But he thinks there are "still a few anomalies" in Wales' coronavirus regulations.

"I went to a funeral yesterday, people attending churches have to wear mask, yet you can be in a pub not wearing a mask," he says.

"There still is some confusion here in terms of the control plan, because we know we've got the winter pressures plan regarding the NHS coming forward on the 18 October.

"That was brought forward a whole month earlier last year, and we were originally told that plan would be part of the control plan that was announced today.

"But that doesn't seem to be the case, that's a little bit of confusion there."

There needs to be greater awareness of the new rules, Ben Francis of the Federation of Small Businesses Wales says.

"With Covid passes now being introduced across various settings, including nightclubs on Monday, Welsh government needs to move with urgency and clarity to educate the public about their responsibilities and assist businesses to understand and implement the measures required of them.

"The timescale for implementation is very tight and guidance has only just been published. In the first instance, forbearance will need to be shown to businesses as they adapt and we will work with government to understand how this measure is being implemented over coming weeks."

Plaid Cymru health spokesman Rhun ap Iorwerth says Wales is still "in a very serious situation, obviously with incredibly high numbers of incidents of positive cases, but heading in the right direction".

He adds it is essential that opposition parties keep "asking for as much detail as possible, always".

"We need to know that there is a plan to ramp things up should things take a turn for the worse.

"There was a blip in the figures yesterday, which may make some people nervous.

"We need to know that government is able to act on that, and arrangements are in place for UK government to step in with furlough, if necessary at some point, and we hope it doesn't come to that but there's always a need for more detail."

Mr Drakeford says it is “just not possible to give a simple figure” to explain a tipping point for greater restrictions.

“This winter is significantly more complicated” than last year, he explains.

The NHS will be dealing with Covid, as well as "all the other things we ask it to do".

He also says vaccination figures continue to be good, but there is more to do.

Mr Drakeford says he wants to see 80% of people in their 30s and 20s getting the jab.

Christmas 2021 will be more like "the ones that we're used to" if nothing unexpected happens, Mr Drakeford says.

"The most likely scenario in our control plan says that we ought to be able to get through the autumn and the winter with restrictions at the sort of level, we have at the moment," he adds.

"That would be very different to last Christmas, far more like the sort of Christmases we were used to.

"All that does depend on us all doing the things that keep us safe, coming forward for vaccination and the simple things that we've learned to do together.

"Then, if nothing unexpected arises, and we've got to plan for the unexpected as well, then we can look forward to a Christmas much more like the ones that we are used to."

Image source, Getty Images

Mr Drakeford says he’s “very concerned” about the UK government’s plans to change the testing rules for people returning from overseas.

From the end of October, fully vaccinated people travelling to England will no longer have to take a PCR test two days after arrival.

Instead, they'll be able to take a lateral flow test.

Mr Drakeford says the PCR tests allow variants to be traced and he “wasn’t clear” how lateral flow tests could be used in the same way.

He said there was “a risk that we are lowering protections”.

Mr Drakeford adds that it is “very difficult” for the Wales not to follow the UK government’s plans as many travellers use airports in England to travel abroad.

Image source, Getty Images

Mr Drakeford thinks the introduction of Covid passes for nightclubs and large events on Monday will be "relatively smooth".

He says the sector and people have been given three weeks to prepare.

However, he adds: "I'm not going to say that there won't be individual examples of teething trouble.

"I think that the system is easy to use.

"There are three different ways in which you can show what you need - you can do it online, you can do it on paper, you can do it by taking a lateral flow test and getting a text message or an email to confirm the results.

"So, the fact that thousands and thousands of people have been able to do it already, and are doing very successfully, suggests to me that the system does work."

Image source, Getty Images

School leaders, teachers and school staff have called for the Welsh government to strengthen its approach to Covid safety in schools following a large-scale, cross-union meeting last night.

Hundreds of school workers met to share experiences and discuss the challenges facing schools as they attempt to operate in the face of high Covid infection rates.

All the education trade unions agreed with the Welsh government that continued learning in school should be a priority.

However, they are pushing for greater mitigation measures to help protect staff and pupils and to allow schools to stay open.

Laura Doel of NAHT Cymru added: “For school leaders to break down when sharing their accounts of what it’s like in school at the moment is heart-breaking.

"Their fears, their concerns and their worries are real. Staff absence is crippling their ability to keep their schools open and they feel powerless to do anything about it."

Image source, Getty Images

Wales' first minister says people should still wear a face covering in indoor public places and work from home where possible.

Image source, Getty Images

It is estimated 56,900 people have Covid-19 in Wales, according to the latest weekly infection survey by the Office for National Statistics.

That is the equivalent of one in 55 people or 1.87% of the population.

Although this is a slight increase on the previous week's estimate that 53,300 people had Covid, ONS said the trend for Wales was uncertain.

It takes thousands of swab samples in Wales, so this can pick up people who may not know they have Covid.

Mr Drakeford says “we appear to be past the peak” of coronavirus cases in Wales.

He says modelling carried out by Swansea University has given “useful estimations throughout the course of the pandemic and will help inform us about the months ahead”.

“Although the modelling forecasts look positive, coronavirus has not gone away and the pandemic is not over," he adds.