Summary

  • UK chief medical officers say coronavirus alert level will move to level 4, meaning transmission is "high or rising exponentially"

  • The UK could be facing 50,000 new Covid-19 cases a day by mid-October, if the current infection rate is not halted

  • Health Secretary Matt Hancock warns that UK faces 'tipping point' on coronavirus cases

  • UK PM Boris Johnson will address Commons on Tuesday about pandemic

  • France changes rules around coronavirus cases in nurseries and primary schools to try to keep more open

  • Parts of the Spanish capital Madrid are going into a tough new lockdown - more than 800,000 residents have been asked to stay at home

  • There have been 31 million confirmed Covid-19 cases worldwide, with more than 960,000 deaths

  1. 'Difficult but necessary' decision on Welsh restrictionspublished at 12:49 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent and Newport will have the same restrictions as Rhondda Cynon Taf.

    People will not be able to enter or leave the areas concerned without a reasonable excuse, including to work if you cannot do so from home.

    Licensed premises like pubs will need to shut by 23:00 every night, with that rule also extended to Caerphilly.

    Health Minister Vaughan Gething said some of the outbreaks could be traced back to a large employer, pubs and a house party which had taken place in August in Newport.

    "Initially most cases were in younger age groups but we are now seeing infections in all age groups," he said.

    Mr Gething said the government had made the "difficult but necessary decision" to protect people's health.

    Wales local lockdowns
  2. Four more counties in Wales face lockdownpublished at 12:38 British Summer Time 21 September 2020
    Breaking

    Local lockdowns will be introduced in four counties in south Wales after a rise in Covid-19 cases.

    Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport and Blaenau Gwent will be placed under a local lockdown from 18:00 BST on Tuesday following an increase in coronavirus cases, the Welsh Government has announced.

    Read more details here.

  3. Sturgeon: Additional restrictions 'almost certain' within days in Scotlandpublished at 12:31 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Nicola SutrgeonImage source, PA Media

    Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that additional measures are "almost certain" to be introduced in Scotland in the next "couple of days".

    At her press conference she said she would be speaking to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson shortly and hoped the increased measures would be brought in with a "four nations approach".

    The First Minister said that "doing nothing in the face of this rapid spread is not an option" and said she backed the advice given by Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty at their Downing Street conference earlier.

    There were no new deaths confirmed in Scotland but cases increased by 255 in the past 24 hours, Ms Sturgeon said.

    Read more here.

  4. How close are we to having a vaccine?published at 12:19 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    BBC News Analysis

    Covid-19 tests being done in laboratoryImage source, University of Oxford

    The UK government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, ended the briefing with an update on the ‘’most exciting’’ bit of science - the coronavirus vaccine.

    ‘’Good progress’’ is being made, he said, with many vaccines now showing they trigger an immune response. Several are in the ‘’very late stage’’ of clinical testing designed to show they are effective and safe.

    Sir Patrick says the UK is in a good position, with access to several of them. It’s possible ‘’certain groups’’ could have limited access by the end of this year, although the first half of next year is far more probable.

    Most experts agree that a vaccine could become widely available by mid-2021, about 12-18 months after Covid-19 emerged.

    This could allow lockdowns to be lifted more safely, and social distancing to be relaxed. But it would be a huge scientific feat and there are no guarantees these vaccines will work.

    When will we get a coronavirus vaccine?

  5. We've heard from the advisers, what about those who decide?published at 12:06 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Chris Mason
    Political Correspondent

    We've had the briefing from Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance.

    But remember, they are advisers, not decision-makers.

    It is up to political leaders - in the government at Westminster and around the UK - to decide what to do next.

    Downing Street say that Boris Johnson will speak by phone to the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales later, and the First and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland.

    Political reporters at Westminster, me included, are about to dial into the daily briefing with the Prime Minister's official spokesman.

    When it's finished, I'll pop back up here with a digest of what we've learnt.

  6. Main points from Whitty and Vallance briefingpublished at 11:59 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    People walk through the Chinatown area, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in London, BritainImage source, Reuters
    Image caption,

    Daily cases as recorded by the government are now topping 3,000

    Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance gave a live TV address about the spread of the virus - and what could happen over the next few months.

    The key points:

    • The virus is now increasing across the majority of the country. "So this is not someone else's problem, this is all of our problem," said Prof Whitty
    • It's a "six-month problem that we have to deal with collectively," said Prof Whitty. He said the seasons are against us with autumn and winter benefiting viruses like Covid
    • The virus is not milder now than in April. Prof Whitty said some people have been saying this - but there's no evidence for it

    The key stats:

    • If the infection continues at its current rate, without any action being taken, then by mid-October there could be 50,000 cases a day. That would lead to more than 200 deaths a day by mid-November
    • Around 70,000 people in the UK are estimated to currently have the disease - and about 6,000 per day are catching it. That's an estimate based on a study from the Office for National Statistics
    • Fewer than 8% of people have got antibodies to the virus, which suggest they've had it already

    What about lockdown measures?

    • Prof Whitty acknowledged it's a "difficult balance" for ministers. If we do too little in terms of lockdown rules, the virus will go out of control, but if we go too far the other way we can damage the economy which will have its own long-term health effects, he said
    • He said one key way to control the virus is to "break unnecessary links between households because that is the way this virus is transmitted". But he said we have to do it "in the least damaging way", adding: "If we don't do enough the virus will take off, and that is the path we are clearly on, and if we don't change course, then we're going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem."

    Read our latest story here.

  7. Analysis: What measures will they bring in?published at 11:41 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Vicki Young
    Chief Political Correspondent

    Meetings have been going on all weekend with the prime minister, with some of his advisers and scientists - trying to work out what to do.

    Prof Whitty was very clear – that this situation requires speed and action.

    And clear too about what needs to be done – it needs to break that chain, to break the transmission of this virus.

    So the question is, if you're the prime minister sitting there looking at those graphs - what action do you take?

    Boris Johnson has made his reluctance to go for another national lockdown very clear.

    It seems very unlikely from everything we've heard privately and publicly from ministers, that that is going to be the road that they go down.

    The question is, what measures will they bring in, and how severe, will they be?

    The chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser talked about household transmission and social interaction - it seems very likely that it will be in that kind of area.

  8. More on where the virus is spreading in the UKpublished at 11:36 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Map showing virus rates across country

    Chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty earlier spoke about how there were "significant rates of transmission" of coronavirus in parts of the UK - as he said: "This is not someone else's problem, this is all of our problem."

    Here's the map that he showed alongside his comments, showing the presence of the virus.

    "What we've seen is a progression where, after the remarkable efforts which got the rates right down across the country, first we saw very small outbreaks, maybe associated with a workplace or another environment, then we've seen more localised outbreaks which have got larger over time, particularity in the cities.

    "And now what we're seeing is a rate of increase across the great majority of the country.

    "It is going at different rates but it is now increasing."

  9. Vallance: Good progress being made on vaccinespublished at 11:31 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Sir Patrick VallanceImage source, PA Media

    Sir Patrick Vallance said that there was good progress being made on vaccines.

    He said the UK was in a "good position" and that it was possible that a vaccine could be available by the end of the year in small amounts for certain groups.

    "In the meantime we have got to get in control of this," he said.

  10. How bad could it get?published at 11:30 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    James Gallagher
    Health and science correspondent, BBC News

    The briefing was a lesson in the threat posed by exponential growth.

    If you have ever been in credit card debt, and seen that debt spiral out of control, you’ll know how quickly a small problem can become a huge one.

    Around 3,000 cases a day may not sound that bad, but the government’s science advisers think the epidemic is doubling every seven days.

    They warn that if (and that is an if) that trend continues, there could be 50,000 cases every day by 13 October. That would, in turn, lead to more deaths from Covid-19.

    But it is easy to describe the problem.

    The far more difficult challenge is deciding what to do about it. Until we have a vaccine, stopping the spread of this virus will require putting restrictions on our lives.

    But who should pay that price and for how long?

    And remember we are in this for the long-haul. Spring, when the weather improves should make it harder for the virus to spread, is still a long way away.

  11. Whitty on households mixing: If we don't change course we'll be in difficult problempublished at 11:22 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Prof Whitty says the mortality rate will be slightly reduced this autumn and winter because treatment is better now - but there will still be many deaths.

    He also talks about the decisions that ministers will have to take - balancing the impact on the economy with the danger of the virus.

    "If we do too little, this virus will go out of control," he said.

    But if we go too far the other way we can cause damage to the economy, he says, which will have its own long-term health effects.

    Prof Whitty says it is important to have these two sides in mind when taking decisions.

    He talks about four things that can be done to combat the virus:

    • Reduce your individual risk by washing your hands
    • Self-isolate if you have symptoms
    • Break unnecessary links between households because that is the way the virus is transmitted. "We have to try and do this in the least damaging way," says Prof Whitty - but he acknowledges there are some "significant downsides"
    • The science - such as diagnostics and vaccines

    On the third point - which suggests limiting contact between households - Prof Whitty warns that if we do not change course we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.

  12. 'No doubt' numbers are increasing - Vallancepublished at 11:19 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Slide 2

    Sir Patrick Vallance said you could see an increase in cases across all age groups.

    "Could that increase be due to increased testing? The answer is no," he said, pointing to the ONS study and others which show similar patterns.

    "It is now estimated that roughly 70,000 people in the UK have Covid infection and around 6,000 per day are getting the infection."

    He said we are now in a situation where numbers are increasing.

  13. Whitty: Covid will be a 'six-month problem' which we all need to deal withpublished at 11:15 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    "The seasons are against us," says Prof Whitty. "We are now going into the seasons... that benefit respiratory viruses."

    It's very likely Covid will benefit from autumn and winter, he says.

    He says it will be a "six-month problem that we will have to deal with collectively".

    "This period of the next six months needs to be taken seriously," he says.

  14. Whitty: This is not someone else's problem, this is all of our problempublished at 11:13 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Prof Chris Whitty says the very high rates of transmission in the UK are concentrated in some areas - but there are high rates elsewhere.

    "We're seeing a rate of increase across the great majority of the country," says Prof Whitty.

    He says that anywhere that had falling numbers of cases is now beginning to see a rise.

    "This is not someone else's problem, this is all of our problem," says Prof Whitty.

  15. Eight per cent of population have antibodiespublished at 11:11 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Sir Patrick says about three million people - or 8% - in the UK have antibodies, meaning the vast majority of us are not protected and are susceptible to the disease.

    If someone has antibodies present it suggests they have already had the virus.

    The number of people with antibodies is a little higher in the cities - perhaps as high as 17% in London, he adds.

  16. 50,000 cases a day by mid-October if it continues at same ratepublished at 11:08 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Slide from the briefing

    At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days, says Sir Patrick, the UK's chief scientific adviser.

    If that continues unabated, then by mid-October we would end up with 50,000 cases per day, he said.

    That would be expected to lead to 200 plus deaths per day by the middle of November.

    He says this graph shows "how quickly this can move".

  17. Virus has 'not changed in propensity to cause deaths'published at 11:08 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Slide 1

    Sir Patrick Vallance starts by showing examples of what has happened in other countries.

    In France and Spain the chief scientific adviser says there has been an increase in younger age groups which has seen an increase in cases in the older population.

    "As the disease spreads across age groups we expect to see increase in hospitalisations and those unfortunately will lead to increase in deaths," he said.

    He added: "The message is simple, the virus has not changed in ability and propensity to cause disease and to cause deaths".

  18. Whitty and Vallance begin briefingpublished at 11:05 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Prof Chris WittyImage source, Reuters
    Image caption,

    Prof Chris Whitty previously said the UK was at a "critical point"

    England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty and the UK's scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance have started the briefing.

    There's no doubt we're in a situation where cases are increasing, Sir Patrick says.

  19. Full national lockdown 'not an option in No 10's view'published at 10:49 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    People sit at tables outside restaurants in Soho, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-20) outbreak, in London, Britain, September 20, 2020.Image source, Reuters
    Image caption,

    The number of daily confirmed cases has been rising by more than 3,000 in recent days

    The UK is poised to hear from the UK government's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty very shortly.

    It comes after the prime minister and senior ministers held meetings over the weekend to discuss whether to introduce further lockdown rules in England.

    (Remember - the UK government is just in charge of England's lockdown rules. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have the power to introduce their own restrictions.)

    According to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg,, external the view in No 10 is that doing nothing is not an option, but a full national lockdown is also not an option.

    She says that despite hours of meetings on Sunday, decisions about precise options are not finalised.

    She adds that whatever the exact plans end up being, it's possible that the measures "could be turned off and on over a period of months to get through the winter".

    Prof Whitty and the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance will give a speech at 11:00 BST. We'll bring you live updates on what they say.

  20. What's the latest with UK cases?published at 10:41 British Summer Time 21 September 2020

    Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick VallanceImage source, EPA
    Image caption,

    Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance advise the government

    It's not long now until Prof Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, will speak to the nation about the coronavirus - nearly six months on from the introduction of the first national lockdown in March.

    He'll be joined by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser who is another familiar face from the daily briefings during the peak of the pandemic.

    The prime minister spent Sunday in talks with ministers and advisers about possible lockdown measures.

    The latest official figures on Sunday recorded a further 3,899 confirmed cases of the disease.

    Recent days have seen cases over 3,000 and the highest since May.

    Graph showing seven day average of cases

    The government announced 18 new deaths on Sunday - all in England. No new deaths were reported in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

    Meanwhile, the number of people admitted to hospital is also slowly rising, but remains well below levels seen earlier this year.

    The government raised its estimate for the "R number" on Friday - the average number of people an infected person will pass the disease on to.

    The R number