New analysis has just been published showing the world is still on course for disastrous warming.

What makes this news so significant is the reputation of the group behind the report - Climate Action Tracker, external.

The independent organisation has been making these predictions since 2009 and releases a new report every year.

By looking at government policies and pledges, it tracks if the world is getting closer to the agreed aim of limiting global warming to 1.5C degrees.

It's made up of scientists and policy experts from two scientific institutes - Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute.

One of the reasons the group is renowned is because it's very open about its methods - meaning we can all see how the numbers are added up.

Image source, EPA

Chinese state media have ramped up their efforts to show the country in a good light around COP26, despite the country's leader not attending the conference.

We’ve noticed two main narratives emerging: that China is a “climate champion” and that China is a developing nation – and thus an argument that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should fall on more highly developed countries, particularly the US.

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Chinese state newspaper Global Times, tweeted that the US cares about appearing to lead on climate, but not about climate change itself.

Meanwhile, China Daily tweeted a cartoon suggesting developed nations had delivered only empty promises.

Earlier this month, CGTN – China’s international English-language TV network – pointed out in an article that China is the world’s largest producer of renewable energy.

But more than half of the country’s energy still comes from coal – and recent shortages have resulted in rationing and power cuts.

Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. Read more here

How did we get to this confusing situation?published at 14:13 Greenwich Mean Time 9 November 2021

14:13 GMT 9 November 2021

Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent

It seemed like we were making huge progress until this report from Climate Action Tracker was released. So how has the confusion come about?

The problem comes from the inclusion of long-term pledges to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

More than 140 countries, covering 90% of global emissions, have announced a mid-century-ish carbon neutrality target – China’s is 2060, India’s 2070.

According to the CAT, these goals are giving “false hope”.

Based on what countries have put on the table for 2030, the world is set to warm by 2.4C by 2100.

That picture gets a bit better if you include the US and China long-term targets, dropping to 2.1C.

If every country implemented their long-term net zeros, then 1.8C could indeed be possible.

But the reality is that without a serious plan for 2030, most of these longer-term goals will not be realised.

That’s why the real focus for the negotiators here must be on the actions countries take over the next nine years.

Any deal agreed here will need to have a strong and credible pathway for the next decade.

Otherwise Glasgow will be judged a failure.

Matt McGrath has been covering climate change for the past 15 years, reporting from 10 COPs along the way.

A false dawnpublished at 14:09 Greenwich Mean Time 9 November 2021

14:09 GMT 9 November 2021

Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

With one sharp jab, this Climate Action Tracker report has punctured the balloon of optimism that’s been swelling since the start of this conference.

The study shows that even with all the pledges made here over the past 10 days, global emissions of warming gases in 2030 will still be double the level needed to keep the 1.5C temperature threshold alive.

For days now, a number of observers, including the formerly conservative International Energy Agency, have been pushing a narrative that the new net zero goals from countries such as India, plus the long list of announcements made here in Glasgow, had pushed the prospective temperature rise this century down to 1.8C.

That seemed like huge progress from the 2.7C the UN Environment Programme had announced at the start of the conference.

Matt McGrath has been covering climate change for the past 15 years, reporting from 10 COPs along the way.

Image source, Getty Images

The world is miles away from its goals on limiting global temperature rise, despite pledges made at COP26, new analysis reveals.

It calculates the planet is headed towards 2.4C of warming by the end of the century - far past the 1.5C limit leaders committed to.

These temperature changes might sound small, but we're talking about average global temperatures, where even seemingly tiny rises can have a massive impact.

Scientists say limiting warming to 1.5C will prevent the most dangerous impacts of climate change.

Climate Action Tracker - which has been analysing promises made by governments before and during COP26 - says the summit "has a massive credibility, action and commitment gap".

Its prediction contrasts with optimism last week following a series of big announcements, including a vow to stop deforestation.

Read more here.

Megha Mohan
BBC Gender & Identity Correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Women have told the BBC that gender-based violence crisis centres annually report an increase in cases because of climate change-induced disasters – particularly tropical cyclones in the Pacific.

“In 2019 some countries faced the dual impact of both Covid-19 and a tropical cyclone," says UN Women Fiji Representative, Sandra Bernklau.

"In Fiji, for example, the national domestic violence helpline recorded a significant increase in calls in the month of April 2019 (around 527), compared to 87 in February and 187 in March of the same year.”

In the Pacific Island country of Samoa, the term "Nofotane women" refers to women who marry outside their home village and live with the husband’s family. They are at the bottom of the village hierarchy, with little to no access to support from village elders.

According to the Samoan Victim Support Group (SVSG), Nofotane women are particularly vulnerable to domestic violence.

In June of this year, SVSG opened Samoa’s first and only women’s refuge in the country, which houses Nofotane women among others. Many say they have experienced violence at home as a direct result of frustrations felt when family income is reduced because of the effects of climate change, SVSG president Lina Chang tells the BBC.

Farming families especially lose fertile soil due to rising sea levels.

"In crisis situations, a woman’s carer role is relied upon to hold the family together and safe, not to be the subject of anger and distress,” says Chang.

Image source, PA Media

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been promoting gender equality in climate action in her first major speech at COP26.

After being introduced by Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker in the US Congress, Sturgeon called on delegates to "ensure that climate change is a feminist issue".

"We must make sure that the experiences of women and girls across the world, so often disproportionately impacted by climate change, are understood as we devise the solutions," she says.

"And we must make sure that the voices of women are at the centre of creating and implementing the solutions to climate change."

Women and girls make up the majority of the world's poor, external, who are most affected by climate change.

Image source, Reuters

Events at the climate conference today have a special focus on gender, science and innovation.

So far:

• The UN's climate chief, Patricia Espinosa, has told the BBC that there are still gaps between what the world needs and what has been agreed so far in Glasgow. “Of course, this week we will not be able to solve it,” she said

• About one billion people face life-threatening heat and humidity from a 2C rise in global temperatures, the UK's Met Office has predicted. The number of people affected by a potentially fatal combination of heat and humidity could increase nearly 15-fold
• The UK government has announced it will invest £165m to progress gender equality while fighting climate change
• A delegation of Democratic US lawmakers has arrived at the conference, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
• Pelosi told an event on gender equality and climate action that "America is back - together for the planet, for the women, for our children"

Next up the independent group Climate Action Tracker will release its updated predictions on global temperature rises.

That's expected at about 14:00 GMT.

You can stick with our live page to get that and other updates from the conference.

Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent

How times change!

Speaking this morning at a presidency event, Nick Bridge, the UK Foreign Office climate envoy repeated an analogy he first used several years ago.

“If your car had a one or 2% chance of brake failure, would you get in the car? Well, nobody would get in that car.

“One or 2% chance of brake failure. No one would get in the car. And yet we're here talking about a 50% chance or a 66% chance of retaining temperatures below a level that is catastrophic. For humans, for coral, for life on earth.”

Mr Bridge said that when he first used the line he was criticised for it – not too many criticising him now.

Matt McGrath has been covering climate change for the past 15 years, reporting from 10 COPs along the way.

Georgina Rannard
BBC News

Image source, Getty Images

This boils down to the fact that climate change is making existing problems worse.

Women and girls do not have the same power, wealth or opportunity as men globally. So as climate change makes our lives more challenging, the burden falls even harder on women and girls. They make up the majority of the world's poor, external, who are most affected by climate change.

Think about a rural community in a developing country. It's usually women and girls who walk the miles to a water source or a market to buy food or collect fuel. As drought dries up water or reduces harvests, they must walk further through more extreme conditions. That takes time away from education or work, and negatively affects their health and wellbeing.

There are reports too that violence against women is increasing , externalas they are forced to make more dangerous journeys to find resources, or must barter with men when food or fuel becomes more expensive due to climate change.

But there is also a huge opportunity in how we change our societies to adapt to a warming world. New forms of clean energy, less pollution, more sustainable food, and a protected natural world all have huge potential to transform women and girls' lives globally.

Image source, Reuters

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi just appeared at an event on improving gender equality in climate action.

The Democrat described the climate crisis as an "existential threat of our time" and discussed how women and indigenous communities faced particular hardship on climate front lines.

She said the US delegation she was leading had come to the conference to listen and learn from others.

But she also used the opportunity to champion legislation being passed under the current administration.

Pelosi said advancing President Biden's infrastructure bill would help the US economy become "cleaner and greener".

At the close of her speech, Pelosi also thanked young climate activists for protesting alongside the conference, pointing to the mantra: "We don't agonise - we organise"

"America is back - together for the planet, for the women, for our children," she said.

Geeta Pandey
Editor, women and social affairs India

For Garvita Gulhati, the glass should only ever be half full.

The 22-year-old youth climate leader from the southern Indian city of Bengaluru (formerly Bangalore) is part of the United Nation’s We The Change campaign and is better known as the “water girl of India” for her efforts in minimising water waste.

In 2015, Garvita was on holiday with her parents when she was accosted by a child beggar who wanted her water bottle.

“Her eyes lit up when I gave it to her. That made me realise that there are people who do not have easy access to drinking water so I started thinking about ways in which I can help,” she tells us.

“When I learnt that globally every year 14 million litres of water is left in glasses in restaurants, that gave me a tangible place to start this campaign.”

Her idea was simple – ask customers if they want water, pour only half a glass if they say yes, and refill only if they ask for more. And if there’s still leftover water, use it for watering plants and cleaning the floor.

Initially, restaurants “weren’t keen to take advice from a teenager” but she persisted and in early 2016, some restaurants adopted the campaign.

Her big breakthrough came in March 2019 when the National Restaurant Association of India – which represents over half a million restaurants – came on board for the “glass half full” campaign. Since then, state governments, schools and charities have signed up.

Her efforts have helped save 10 million litres of water – enough to fill up four Olympic-size swimming pools or meet the daily drinking water needs of 250,000 people.

As we have been reporting, science and innovation are two of the themes of the day at COP26.

There have already been major announcements on moves to tackle methane emissions and deforestation.

Ani Dasgupta, CEO of the World Resources Institute, has told the BBC negotiators are "grinding their way" towards more significant deals before the end of the summit.

"The main agreement on how we collectively as countries decarbonise our world is still be agreed.

"But I am cautiously optimistic that something good will come out."

He says that sense of positivity comes from COP26 being like no other before it, in that not one country represented in Glasgow is debating whether they need to do something about climate change or not.

Navin Singh Khadka
Environment correspondent, BBC World Service

There are still gaps between what the world needs and what has been so far secured on carbon emission reduction and climate finance at the COP26 global climate summit - and they will not be solved during these talks, the head of the UN climate change has told the BBC.

“Of course, this week we will not be able to solve it, ” says Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

“For some countries, the goal of 1.5 degrees seems to be very difficult to achieve but for others it is the only way for survival.

“So, we need to work on a good path on how are we going to overcome those gaps.”

Espinosa said last week’s big announcements such as finance and ending deforestation were good but how they figure during negotiations and whether they are aligned to the Paris goal of 1.5C were key questions.

These are indications that climate negotiations may still have a long way to go.

The puppet of a Syrian girl that has made an 8,000km trip through Europe as part of a campaign highlighting the plight of refugees has arrived at the COP26 summit in Glasgow.

"Little Amal", which is 3.5m tall, opened a session on advancing gender equality in climate action.

The figure's journey has been described as an "international arts festival meets endurance event" by organisers, who want more support from European countries for young refugees.

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

BBC Media Action

All around the world, women are among those bearing the brunt of climate change. Nasieku Lesiamito is a 25-year-old pastoralist from Louwabene in Kenya who is part of a community that has had their lives upended due to drought conditions. She told her story to the BBC's international charity.

I have been affected by climate change because I had to move here since where I live was affected. I come from a place called Louwabene and I have come here, Maralal Kuroto, in search of grass and water for my goats and cows.

As women, we have really suffered because of the lack of water. We wake up in the morning at 07:00 to look for water and we come back in the evening. At times when you get back, you find that the goats and calves have strayed.

As the Lowabene community, we came together and the elders encouraged us to contribute some money towards drilling a borehole. But in the midst of raising the money for the borehole, the drought became worse and everyone left to different places to look for water.

There are some children who dropped out of school since the drought struck. The parents had left so the children could not be left behind alone.

If we were to get water and pasture, we would be settled and our children would go back to school. As women we will start doing business, we have a small centre called Lekuru where we can go and start doing trading.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a young, progressive Democrat who has become one of the most vocal voices in US politics advocating for radical action on climate change.

The BBC caught up with her as she arrived at the conference on Tuesday.

She's part of a delegation of US lawmakers who have travelled to Glasgow to attend the summit.

Team GB snowboarder Zoe Atkin tells BBC Sport she has "seen a lot of the impacts of climate change" and that if global warming continues, her sport is "at risk".

She says things hit close to home when a heatwave on Mount Hood in the US melted a glacier, meaning she couldn't ski for three days.

Now she wants "to start the fight for global change".

Glenn Campbell
BBC Scotland Political Editor

Image source, Getty Images

Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon has, perhaps, not been afforded the high profile she would have liked with COP26 being hosted in her home city of Glasgow. But as discussions switch to today's themes of gender, science and innovation, Sturgeon is moving into the spotlight.

There was a time when Boris Johnson seemed determined to exclude Nicola Sturgeon from COP26.

At his party's 2019 conference he told Scottish Conservatives that he did not want Scotland's first minister "anywhere near it", external.

That would have been hard to achieve given the UK is hosting the UN climate summit in Sturgeon's home city.

In any event the prime minister relented, telling the BBC in August that all devolved leaders would have a big role to play.

Image source, Getty Images

Exactly what their role is has never been formally spelled out by Johnson.

Sturgeon was not afforded a speaking slot on the main conference platform during the first week.

That changes this week, with the first minister speaking on gender and climate change and chairing a panel discussion on the same topic.

But she has managed to carve out roles for herself and achieve prominence without top billing.

Read more on this from Glenn here

Image source, Reuters

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has arrived at COP26 with 20 other Democrats from the US Congress.

No Republicans have traveled on the official delegation trip.

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez - one of the traveling Democrats - said on Instagram, external that some had been originally scheduled to join them but pulled out.

"I believe some decided to come on their own with private sponsors instead of as part of the official US delegation - some suspect with companies/fossil fuel interests," she wrote.

Former US President Barack Obama addressed the conference yesterday and took aim at US Republicans for expressing what he said was "active hostility toward climate science" to "make climate change a partisan issue".

He also called out his successor Donald Trump for rolling back on climate commitments.