Won't viruses always mutate?published at 16:22 Greenwich Mean Time 26 November 2021

16:22 GMT 26 November 2021

Joseph asks...

James points out that what's important to note is not only that viruses do mutate, but what they are mutating into and how they are changing.

He says we see viruses mutating in pretty much everything - giving the example of a new flu vaccine being developed each year because influenza mutates.

It is the changes to this new Covid variant that are causing particular concern among scientists, he adds, because it could change the behaviour of the virus.

What will the variant's impact be on vaccines?published at 16:19 Greenwich Mean Time 26 November 2021

16:19 GMT 26 November 2021

Natalie, George and others ask...

The BBC's James Gallagher says the honest answer is we don't yet know what implications this new variant will have for Covid vaccines, including boosters.

He explains that lots of tests will be carried out on people over the next few weeks, with blood samples taken to check their immune response, antibody levels and other things.

James adds we will learn more from the impact that it has on South Africa, with data being gathered from people who catch the variant there in the near future.

The biggest concern with this new variant is the virus is now significantly mutated from the original strain that emerged in China - and the further we drift away from it, the less effective the current vaccines could be.

However, he emphasises the most important thing about boosters is it massively ramps up the body's immune response - which could help overwhelm the variant even if it proves to be a problem.

Why is this new variant from southern Africa so worrying?published at 16:11 Greenwich Mean Time 26 November 2021

16:11 GMT 26 November 2021

Antonio asks...

James Gallagher, BBC News health and science correspondent, takes on the first question of the session.

He says 100 samples of the new variant have been genetically analysed, and when you look at them, there are mutations in the genetic code which experts think make the virus more likely to spread more quickly.

The mutations also might make it better at evading immunity you may have built up - either through being vaccinated against Covid-19 or having had the virus, James adds.

He says the huge number of mutations in this new variant - far more than in previous variants - is causing concern.

Scientists are now rushing to figure out what this virus is doing in the real world - as on paper there is concern.

A further 50,091 Covid cases have been recorded in the UK, the latest government figures show.

In addition, there have been another 160 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Image source, Getty Images

US infectious disease chief Dr Anthony Fauci says a ban on flights from countries that have detected the new variant is a possibility, but that more needs to be known before strict measures are imposed.

"We need to get the facts," he tells CNN, adding that there is "no indication" that it has yet reached the US.

He warns, however, that "there's a lot of travel", and says the US is working with scientists in South Africa to discover more.

He goes on to say that while the reports on the new variant throw up a "red flag", it's possible that vaccines might still work to prevent serious illness.

"Until it's properly tested... we don't know whether or not it evades the antibodies that protect you against the virus."

Angelique Coetzee, chairperson of the South African Medical Association, has been telling the BBC that new travel restrictions on her country are premature.

"For now, it is a storm in a tea cup," she says.

Image source, EPA

The new coronavirus variant has "many red flags - more than we would've expected or ever planned for", says Sir Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford.

He says the European Commission's recommendation that EU countries stop travel to and from nations where the variant has been found is a "reasonable precautionary measure" while scientists investigate.

However, he adds it's important that we demonstrate "solidarity" with affected countries as they have been "admirably transparent about this problem".

"We shouldn't overly penalise them, we should really put in place as strong measures as we can to help them support them to control the spread of this virus," he says.

Image source, Getty Images

A handful of local Covid cases in eastern parts of China have led to Shanghai city curbing tourism activities.

China - which is where the first known outbreak of Covid-19 was reported - is insisting on a zero tolerance policy against letting clusters spread.

Shanghai detected three domestically transmitted cases with confirmed symptoms on Thursday, according to data from the National Health Commission.

It is the first reported symptomatic case since August.

The city of 24.9 million has suspended travel agencies from organising tourism that involves trips between the city and other regions.

Some areas deemed at higher infection risk have been closed off.

Elsewhere in China, Beijing's annual marathon has been cancelled over concerns of virus transmission risk.

And Xuzhou - a city of 9.1 million - has suspended its three subway lines after one locally transmitted case was reported.

James Gallagher, BBC News health and science correspondent, and Caroline Davies, BBC News business correspondent, will be answering readers' Covid-related questions from 16:00 GMT.

You can ask them questions via the BBC News Facebook page and their responses will be streamed live at the top of this page.

Image source, Getty Images

A woman due to go to her niece's wedding and visit her 87-year-old mother in law in South Africa tells the BBC about her "shock" at the snap announcement on the changing travel rules.

Catherine Scholfield, 60, in Hampshire says the wedding had already been delayed so they could come and she was packed and ready to go in advance of setting off for the wedding and family reunion

She adds it’s also now been years since they last saw family in South Africa.

Catherine says: "It’s heartbreaking. My husband’s mother right now is OK, but she’s going to be 88 in July and she’s aging as this is happening.

“He’s trying to keep a brave face for our daughters who have been nowhere, one had no graduation, it’s horrible.

“I didn’t even consider the red list, which we haven’t thought about for a long time. It seems like a long time ago."

As we've been reporting today, countries are tightening their travel restrictions after a new coronavirus variant was identified in southern Africa earlier this week.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned against countries hastily imposing travel restrictions, saying they should look to a "risk-based and scientific approach".

Nevertheless, an increasing number of nations including the UK and the Netherlands have temporarily halted flights from these southern African nations:

• South Africa
• Botswana
• Namibia
• Zimbabwe
• Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)
• Lesotho

Singapore, Italy, France and Israel are among those who have also placed Mozambique, on their red lists.

Japan has announced that from Saturday, travellers from southern Africa will need to quarantine for 10 days and take a total of four tests during that time.

The Head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has called for all EU nations to put on the "emergency brake" and suspend air travel from southern African countries affected by the new variant.

The Czech Republic will ban anyone has has spent more than 12 hours in those nations from entering as of Saturday.

Germany, which is currently going through a fourth wave of infections because of the Delta variant, will allow only Germans to fly into Germany from South Africa as of Friday night, Reuters is reporting.

Even if travellers are fully vaccinated, they will still have to spend 14 days in quarantine.

India has ordered more rigorous screening and testing for travellers arriving from South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong, local media is reporting.

Michelle Roberts
Health editor, BBC News online

Viruses make carbon copies of themselves to reproduce but they aren’t perfect at it. Errors can creep in that change the genetic blueprint, resulting in a new version or variant.

If this gives the virus a survival advantage, the new version will thrive.

The more chances coronavirus has to make copies of itself in us - the host - the more opportunities there are for mutations to occur.

That’s why keeping infections down is important. Vaccines help by cutting transmission as well as protecting against serious Covid illness.

Experts say it is possible that the new highly altered variant B.1.1.529 may have originated in a patient whose immune system was unable to get rid of a Covid infection quickly, giving the virus more time to morph.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says it is not time to "press the panic button" over the new coronavirus variant that has emerged in South Africa.

She insists it is the "most serious and most worrying development" in battling Covid so far, but Scotland has, in common with the rest of the UK, taken a "highly precautionary" approach, including restrictions on travel and quarantine on arrival.

The situation in Scotland is "precarious" but the nation appears to be in a "stronger position" than she thought it would be at this stage, with cases broadly stable and declining significantly in the older population - indicating the effectiveness of Covid vaccines.

Imogen Foulkes
BBC News, Geneva

Image source, Getty Images

Many countries are already scrambling to put travel restrictions in place in a bid to stop the new variant spreading.

But the discovery of a case in Belgium could mean they are too late.

Today, World Health Organization (WHO) experts will decide whether B.1.1.529 is a variant of concern: is it more infectious? Does it cause more severe illness? Could it evade the vaccines?

It may take weeks to get detailed answers, but initial evidence shows this variant has substantial differences to the original Covid-19 virus - that could make it more dangerous.

Despite the new variant, the WHO continues to advise against travel restrictions, but warns that the measures we took before we ever had a vaccine - masks, distancing, and hand hygiene - are more important than ever.

The European Commission has recommended that EU countries introduce an "emergency brake" on travel from southern Africa in response to the new coronavirus variant which was first detected there.

EC President Ursula von der Leyen says the move will help "limit the spread" of the variant, recommending all air travel to affected countries be suspended.

Returning travellers from the region should "respect strict quarantine rules", she adds.

Image source, AFP

The joint makers of the widely used Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are assessing how effective their jab is against the new Covid-19 variant recently discovered in South Africa, according to the Reuters news agency.

"We understand the concern of experts and have immediately initiated investigations on variant B.1.1.529," Reuters quotes BioNTech as saying.

The German company will have more insight in two weeks time at the latest, when it receives further data from laboratory tests, according to Reuters.

The firm said the variant "may require an adjustment of our vaccine" if it spreads globally and is found to be capable of escaping immunity.

On assessment of the B.1.1.529 variant, scientists have found it to be the most heavily mutated version of Covid-19 discovered so far.

World leaders have reacted with concern, with several limiting travel from the southern African region.

A South African vaccine expert has argued countries introducing travel restrictions are over-reacting,

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's World at One programme, Prof Shabir Madhi said it was "too early to determine" if the new variant was more transmissible or could evade vaccines , which will become clear over the next few weeks.

Prof Shabir, professor of vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said the vast majority of countries which think they can introduce travel bans and prevent the arrival of a new variant are "quite naive and completely blind" to how the virus has spread internationally over the course of the pandemic.

"There has been an exaggerated response, it's been a knee-jerk response and part of it unfortunately is because of unmeasured communication strategy around the variant," he adds.

However, Dr David Nabarro, the World Health Organization's special envoy on Covid-19, tells the programme it is a "reasonable worry" to have that the new variant, could "evade the protection of the vaccines" - but agreed with Dr Madhi that it was still too early too tell.

He adds: "So we need to be incredibly careful now to do the right thing but to also recognise that it is going to be some weeks before we can say for certain whether our fears have any basis."

Image source, Supplied

We've heard from another traveller affected by the UK travel restrictions on the six south African countries.

Tom Mellor, 30, from Cheshire, has been in Cape Town for work and had been due to return to the UK tonight.

But he says he and a colleague are now stranded there after their British Airways flight was cancelled at 04:00 this morning.

The situation is "pretty shocking" he says, adding that he's had no contact from the airline. Its office is closed and there is just a sign-up with a helpline number on it.

Tom says they have managed to book an apartment for tonight, and have been lucky to have colleagues driving them around for things like Covid tests.

Image source, Supplied

But the pair are desperately looking to see if they can fly back via Dubai in order to meet the Sunday deadline.

Tom says: “I have a one-year-old and a partner at home on her own that I'd like to get back to, and my colleague also has three children.

“We just don’t understand if they want us to arrive home before the Sunday deadline why the flights are cancelled.”

Andrew Harding
BBC News, Johannesburg

South Africans have responded sharply to the news that the UK, and a growing list of other countries, have reacted to the emergence of a new Covid variant with red-listings and travel bans.

While there is genuine pride here in the country's scientific expertise, and the speed with which South Africa has been able to identify and share information about new variants, there is also a strong sense that the nation is being unfairly punished for its successes.

"The world should provide support to South Africa and Africa and not discriminate or isolate it," said Prof Tulio de Oliveira, the Durban-based scientist leading efforts to understand the new variant.

South Africa has a sophisticated monitoring infrastructure that allows it to do the sequencing work effectively.

The variant was first sequenced in neighbouring Botswana, and then in South Africa's capital, Pretoria. That was where a group of students, exactly how many is not known, took PCR tests which all contained an anomaly that prompted experts to send their samples to Prof de Oliviera's Durban laboratory for genome sequencing.

South Africa's vaccination programme has slowed in recent months - not because of a lack of supplies, but due to public indifference.

An estimated 42% of the population has had at least one jab. But roughly two-thirds of those aged over 60 have been vaccinated.

The bigger concern is the potential impact of the variant if it spreads to other parts of the continent where, on average, roughly 3% of the population has been vaccinated.

Read more

James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent, BBC News

The new variant of coronavirus has more than 50 mutations overall.

Some 32 of those are on the spike protein - that's the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells, and the target of most vaccines.

Zooming in even further to the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells - called the receptor binding domain - scientists found that has 10 mutations.

That compares to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world.

A lot of mutation doesn't automatically mean: bad.

It's important to know what those mutations are actually doing, but the concern is this virus is now radically different to the original that emerged in Wuhan, China, on which the vaccines are based.

Read James' full analysis here.