We are in uncharted waterspublished at 19:15 Greenwich Mean Time 8 March 2022
Faisal Islam
BBC Economics Editor
Two G7 nations cannot ban the world’s second largest oil producer without tangible consequences.
Some of this is already factored in to the global price for crude oil, record pump petrol and particularly diesel prices.
President Biden was candid with the American people that there was a “price” for freedom.
PM Johnson hopes that the price can be minimised by phasing in a ban over the course of this year.
Even without formal diplomatic bans, an unofficial embargo is occurring in the markets. Shell was pilloried by Ukraine’s foreign minister for buying a cheap tanker of unwanted Russian crude, and has since apologised. Another tanker was turned away from Tranmere docks by unions refusing to offload the crude, and is now waiting near Orkney for a purchaser.
Though there are no sanctions on Russian energy in the EU plan, if followed, it will have a bigger overall impact on the energy market. And most of the West is trying to do the same thing at the same time.
But this is the economic weapon that will most hit the Kremlin. Oil revenues are much more important than gas revenues. There are also other options for the world’s supply of crude oil, stretching from Venezuela to the Gulf.
This will come with a price, paid by everyone. It was a price President Putin assumed Western populations would not want to pay. It is now happening.