Studying Putin's mind - US spymasterpublished at 09:06 Greenwich Mean Time 22 March 2022
US spymaster Gen James Clapper who oversaw the CIA, FBI, NSA and served as one of President Barack Obama's principal advisers has offered some insights into what intelligence work might be going on to establish what Russian President Vladimir Putin's state of mind is.
"Putin has been largely isolated, particularly so in the last two years with the pandemic, and compounding that is the fact that he has very few people that really have access to him - that makes gathering intelligence you have faith and trust in very difficult, so a lot is read into what he does and says publicly," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
Intelligence officers will be poring over images and speeches both in content and manner of delivery, he says.
Putin has done a lot of things that don't conform "with his traditional buttoned down, cold, pragmatic, machine-like demeanour", he says.
Asked whether he is rational, "one hopes that if you're dealing with a head of state who has his finger on the button for the largest nuclear arsenal on the globe, that he is thinking rationally. I think from many perspectives, he is very rational... But I do know his behaviour and his demeanour have changed recently over what it was."
Are we paying the price for mistakes made in the past, not acting when lines have been crossed like when Crimea was annexed or when chemical weapons were used in Syria?
The now US President Biden was vice-president at the time of those developments, and will have lived through all this, which would have led to him tempering his public statements and being very measured, Clapper says.