Huge development as path cleared for Sweden and Finland's Nato membershippublished at 10:48 British Summer Time 29 June 2022

10:48 BST 29 June 2022

Frank Gardner
BBC security correspondent reporting from Madrid

After four months of dire news from Ukraine, Nato officials finally have something to celebrate this morning.

Ankara had objected to Nato applicants Finland and Sweden hosting Kurdish activists, whom it viewed as terrorists.

But overnight, in an early and significant boost to the Madrid summit, Turkey dropped its opposition to their impending membership of the alliance.

Facilitated by Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, foreign ministers from all three countries came up with a formula that satisfied all parties, signing a memorandum of understanding which guarantees to protect each other's security.

For Nato, struggling to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to hold back the slowly advancing Russians, it's a huge development.

Finland and Sweden bring with them sophisticated armies, cutting-edge technology and lengthy Baltic coastlines.

But it's not all good news.

Today, Boris Johnson will warn fellow Nato delegates at the summit they will have to "dig deep" to prepare for a more dangerous decade ahead.

The British PM is expected to announce a number of commitments to Nato, including the expansion of the UK's base in Estonia.

Image source, .

Turkey has dropped its opposition to Sweden and Finland being admitted as members of the alliance, ending decades of military neutrality for the two Nordic nations.

Now Nato has released a memo detailing what the three countries have agreed to, to allow the membership for Sweden and Finland to proceed.

We'll bring you more analysis soon but for now you can read the details for yourself here, external.

Image source, Reuters

Over in Madrid, some of the world leaders attending a Nato summit have been speaking about the war and the West's intention to keep supporting Ukraine.

Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez, the summit's host, says Russia will be identified as the military alliance's "main threat" in its new strategic concept, as opposed to a strategic partner previously.

"We are sending a strong message to Putin," he adds, "'You will not win'."

Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, says Nato will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons "for as long as it is necessary".

“It is good that the countries gathered here - [and] many others, too - make their contributions so Ukraine can defend itself - by providing financial means, humanitarian aid but also by providing the weapons that Ukraine urgently needs,” Scholz is quoted by Reuters as saying on the summit's second day.

David Brown
Visual Journalism Team

Image source, .

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has been calling for an increase in spending on Britain’s armed forces, in response to the threat from Russia.

Figures published by Nato this week suggest UK defence spending as a proportion of economic output (GDP) has actually fallen for a second year.

The UK is projected to spend 2.12% of GDP on defence this year.

That estimate is above the Nato target of 2%, but down from 2.26% in 2021 and 2.3 in 2020.

In absolute terms, the UK is still the second largest spender on defence, after the US, which spends by far the most.

Nato says that nine alliance members: Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, the UK and the US have reached or exceeded the 2% of GDP target.

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Image source, Reuters

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says military spending needs to increase in the coming years in light of the heightened threat to security from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He is attending the Nato summit in Madrid today alongside Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who will call on other leaders to increase their military spending.

Speaking to the BBC, Wallace said the UK needs to have "a grown-up discussion" by the middle of the decade about defence spending.

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Nato member states pledged to spend at least 2% of their gross domestic product on defence to ensure the readiness of the alliance by 2024.

But Wallace said the "threat has changed" again and therefore defence spending should be reviewed.

He added that a lesson from the last ten to 15 years is that people have "underestimated" Russian President Putin, and ignored what he's said publicly "at their peril".

The leaders of Nato member countries are now at its summit in Madrid.

Speaking to the media outside the venue, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says if Russia's President Putin is hoping for "less Nato" then he is wrong.

"He's getting more Nato", says Johnson: "We've got two new members coming in, Finland and Sweden, a huge step forward for our alliance."

Johnson says the summit today will discuss what more can be done to support Ukraine and what lessons can be learnt from the last few months.

The discussions will also focus on Nato "revising its posture on its Eastern flank", he adds.

What do we know about the missile attack?published at 09:22 British Summer Time 29 June 2022

09:22 BST 29 June 2022

Chris Partridge
BBC News

Image source, @zelenskiy_official

The overnight footage, released by President Zelensky, of the missile strike on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk, certainly points to previous Ukrainian assessments that it was an air-launched Kh–22 weapon.

Key characteristics of the Kh-22

This is a medium-range cruise missile developed in the 1960s Cold War era, originally to attack large warships.

There was also a land-attack variant, but in those days that would have been equipped with a nuclear warhead. Such missiles can now be fitted with conventional warheads.

The weapon is large, liquid-fuelled, supersonic - but, notably, inaccurate by today’s standards.

It’s possible the strike was carried out using an upgraded unit with improved Inertial Navigation System, or even - but less likely - satellite-aided navigation.

Any target location data would be inputted before launch, rather than “on the fly”. The relatively shallow nature of the angle of impact of this missile further points to its cruise nature, rather than a ballistic missile, which follows a parabolic path.

How was it launched?

Just hours after Monday's attack, Ukraine’s Air Force Command gave details of how the strike began.

Kh-22s were launched from Tupolev bombers in the Kursk region of western Russia, roughly 300km (185 miles) away.

This is part of a familiar pattern in this war, where Russian aircraft launch missiles within the protective area of Russian territory, using the range of the cruise missiles to reach targets hundreds of miles away.

At the weekend, Russian bombers also launched cruise missiles at Kyiv from the Caspian Sea - a distance of 900 miles. Similar attacks were launched from the same area against Odesa in April.

Image source, EPA

In his late night address to his people on Tuesday night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released footage of the Russian missile strike hitting a shopping mall in Kremenchuk.

The death toll from Monday's strike has risen to 20 while dozens of people have been injured.

Zelensky said Russia "purposefully" hit the busy shopping centre and "wanted to kill as many people as possible in a peaceful city".

The Russian Defence Ministry continues to deny blame for the deadly blaze, claiming the target was a factory with a stockpile of Western weapons and ammunition.

Zelensky also called out Russian propagandists "who lie about this terror" in Ukraine, saying that these individuals will be punished alongside Russian troops involved in war crimes.

He said: "Ukraine's law enforcement and intelligence agencies are doing their best to identify all Russian servicemen responsible for the terror against our cities.

"The names, faces and all information about each of these terrorists will be known to the world."

Image source, EPA

In some ways, not much. The Nordic nations became official partners of Nato in 1994 and have since become major contributors to the alliance. They have taken part in several Nato missions since the end of the Cold War.

One key change, however, is the fact that both countries will for the first time have security guarantees from nuclear states under Nato's Article 5, which views an attack on one member state as an attack on all.

Historian Henrik Meinander previously said Finns were mentally prepared for membership, following a succession of small steps towards Nato since the fall of the Soviet Union.

In short, angering Russia. President Vladimir Putin believes Nato expansion is a direct threat to his country's security, so Sweden and Finland joining the alliance will likely be perceived as a provocation.

Russia's foreign ministry says both countries have been warned of the “consequences” of such a move. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of the Russian leader, has warned that Nato accession may prompt Moscow to deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania.

While not dismissing these threats, Finnish ex-Prime Minister Alexander Stubb suggested a more realistic risk was of Russian cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns and occasional airspace violations.

Image source, .

Image source, Swedish Armed Forces

Sweden and Finland are both joining Nato – a monumental shift for two nations with a long history of wartime neutrality. During a Nato summit in Madrid, they overcame what is likely to be the final obstacle – objections by Turkey. But why now?

Finland

For many Finns, events in Ukraine bring a haunting sense of familiarity. The Soviets invaded Finland in late 1939. For more than three months the Finnish army put up fierce resistance, despite being heavily outnumbered. They avoided occupation, but ended up losing 10% of their territory.

Watching the war in Ukraine unfold was like reliving this history, said Iro Sarkka, a political scientist at the University of Helsinki. Finns were looking at their 1,340km (830 mile) border with Russia, she said, and thinking: “Could this happen to us?”

Sweden

Sweden has also felt endangered in recent years, with several reported airspace violations by Russian military aircraft. In 2014, Swedes were transfixed by reports that a Russian submarine was lurking in the shallow waters of the Stockholm archipelago.

Two years later Sweden's army returned to the small but strategically important Baltic Sea island of Gotland, after abandoning it for two decades.

Image source, Reuters

World leaders are gathering in Madrid again today for a Nato summit, where the war in Ukraine will dominate proceedings.

Here's what we can expect from the summit in light of yesterday's developments:

• Nato leaders will hold talks in Spain's capital city again today on the future direction of the military alliance after Russia's invasion of Ukraine
• In a significant development last night, Turkey agreed to drop its opposition to Finland and Sweden joining the organisation
• The two countries will be formally invited to join the military alliance today, according to Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg
• He said current Nato members will agree to a "comprehensive assistance package to Ukraine, to help them uphold the right for self-defence" at the summit
• Today's talks are also expected to feature calls from Prime Minister Boris Johnson for allies to boost their defence spending in response to Russia's invasion "to restore deterrence and ensure defence in the decade ahead"
• The summit comes as heavy fighting in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region continues.
• It follows a missile strike on a shopping mall in the central city of Kremenchuk on Monday that killed 18 people

Hello, and welcome back to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine.

It’s set to be another busy day, with Finland and Sweden due to be formally invited to join the Nato military alliance after Turkey lifted its objections.

Stay tuned as we bring you live updates from the Nato summit in Madrid, as well as the situation on the ground in Ukraine.

Image source, PA Media

We're pausing our live coverage for now, and will leave you with a quick recap of what happened today.

Nato summit in Madrid

• Turkey has dropped its objection to Finland and Sweden joining Nato after the three countries reached an agreement on security issues
• Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg says the two Nordic nations will be formally invited to join the military alliance on Wednesday
• He acknowledged that sanctions against Russia have led to higher energy prices for Western countries - but says these are a price worth paying for "freedom"
• Meanwhile, leaders of the G7 group of wealthy nations have agreed to work on a price cap for Russian oil, as part of efforts to cut the Kremlin's revenues

Latest from Ukraine itself

• Rescuers have stopped searching for survivors after Monday's Russian missile strike on a shopping mall in the city of Kremenchuk
• President Zelensky has invited the UN to visit the site of the attack - which killed at least 18 people
• The elected mayor of the Russian-occupied southern city of Kherson has been arrested, according to Russian media

Today's updates were brought to you by Claire Heald, Holly Wallis, Claudia Allen, Alex Therrien, Aoife Walsh, Tori Lindrea, Sam Hancock, Jeremy Gahagan, Andrew Humphrey, Alex Fouché, Chris Giles, Leo Sands, Tiffany Wertheimer and James FitzGerald.

Image source, EPA

Nato's planned enlargement to include Sweden and Finland means Putin is getting the opposite of what he had bargained for, the military alliance's chief Jens Stoltenberg has said.

Speaking at a conference in Madrid ahead of a summit he said Nato's doors were open to new members - meaning Russian attempts to stop it expanding had backfired.

"He wanted less Nato - now President Putin is getting more Nato on its borders. So what he gets is actually the opposite of what he demanded, and that was for Nato close its doors."

Image source, Reuters

Stepping away from the Nato announcement for a moment - actor and director Sean Penn has met President Zelensky on his return to Kyiv, where he is making a documentary on the Russian invasion.

Penn first travelled to Ukraine for the project in November last year, and was there on 24 February when the invasion began, days later joining thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the country to Poland.

During the meeting today, Zelensky thanked Penn for his support for Ukraine, and was offered the opportunity to visit towns and cities affected by the war, the president's office said.

Penn has been a vocal supporter of Zelensky and Ukraine, unsuccessfully calling for the president to address the Oscars back in March.

He previously declared: "We don't know how much horrible loss, meaningless loss, and heartbreak there will be. But we do know that the Ukrainians will prevail."

Image source, Reuters

Some more responses now - this time from the Swedish prime minister.

Magdalena Andersson welcomed the decision as an "important step" and, in an interview with AFP news agency, rejected claims her officials had conceded too much to Turkish President Recep Erdogan.

"We will continue our fight against terrorism and as Nato members, also do so with closer cooperation with Turkey," Ms Andersson said.

She also said that Swedish authorities were working on extradition requests from Turkey in accordance with domestic and European law.

Turkey had originally objected to Sweden's membership, along with Finland's - on the grounds that they sheltered Kurdish activists considered by Ankara to be terrorists.

As we've been reporting, Turkey says it will no longer block efforts by Finland and Sweden to join the Nato military alliance - after the three nations announced they'd reached an agreement.

So what's involved in that deal?

• Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg says Sweden has agreed to step up its work on Turkish extradition requests of suspected militants
• Stockholm has been accused by Turkey of harbouring what it calls militants from the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - but denies the allegation
• Militants will also face a crackdown under amendments to Swedish and Finnish law
• Stoltenberg also says the two Nordic nations will lift their restrictions on selling weapons to Turkey

Western nations are welcoming the news that Turkey has dropped its objections to Finland and Sweden joining the Nato military alliance.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tweeted his support, external for the agreement between Turkey and the Nordic countries.

"Fantastic news as we kick off the Nato summit," he wrote. "Sweden and Finland's membership will make our brilliant alliance stronger and safer."

US President Joe Biden is also supportive of the deal, according to remarks from a White House official quoted by Reuters.

The move marks "a significant sea change in the security posture," the official adds.

Biggest stumbling block removed to admit two new Nato memberspublished at 21:08 British Summer Time 28 June 2022

21:08 BST 28 June 2022

Frank Gardner
BBC security correspondent reporting from Madrid

The metaphoric champagne corks will be popping in Nato’s senior ranks tonight as the biggest stumbling block is removed to admit two major new members.

Finland and Sweden are already modern, Western-leaning democracies with well trained and well equipped militaries used to operating in the often challenging conditions of Europe’s far north.

Their accession, once it is complete, will bring the number of Nato countries bordering the Baltic Sea to seven, effectively turning it into a Nato lake.

Russia’s two outlets, at St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, will be increasingly isolated, only increasing the Kremlin’s paranoia.

Finland and Sweden are joining Nato because Russia invaded Ukraine. That invasion was intended to push Nato further from Russia’s borders.

Instead, it has achieved the exact opposite.

Image source, .