Ukraine and Russia agree deal to resume grain exports through Ukraine's Black Sea ports
Russia's blockade of the ports reduced global grain supplies and increased prices
Food prices on commodity markets fell after news of the deal emerged
The deal was signed in Turkey, whose government brokered the deal alongside the UN
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres calls it an "agreement for the world" and a "beacon of hope"
He also tells the BBC it's probably the most important thing he's done as head of UN
Ukraine ruled out signing a direct deal with Russia - both sides signed "mirror" deals
Anna Foster
Reporting from Istanbul
The final preparations are being made to officially complete the deal.
Both Ukraine and Russia’s delegations have now arrived in Istanbul - and Turkey’s President Erdogan just said he would soon give the world "good news".
The papers will be signed at the Dolmabahce bureau, part of a former Ottoman palace overlooking the Bosphorus.
We reported earlier that Russia's defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, had arrived in Istanbul to agree the grain deal.
Now, the delegation from Ukraine has arrived in Istanbul, says Ukraine's infrastructure ministry.
Kyiv and Moscow are expected to sign deals later that would allow grain exports to resume from the Black Sea, having been largely blocked since the Russian invasion.
"The country's delegation led by Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov arrived in Istanbul for negotiations on the resolution of the grain issue," the ministry says on Telegram.
It adds that delegates also met UN chief Antonio Guterres.
Russia’s naval blockade has effectively cut off Ukraine’s major ports, forcing the country to rely on smaller ports to get goods out, say maritime analysts.
Outbound sailings of bulk carriers and general cargo vessels plummeted 95% in the immediate aftermath of the invasion on 24 February, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
Ukraine has been relying on its Danube ports to help keep trade flowing. The ports have boosted capacity to record levels, leading to severe congestion outside the Sulina Canal.
Still, it’s not enough to make up for the country’s grain shortfall, says data reporter Bridget Diakun.
"The reopening of ports like Odesa would be the most effective way to boost grain exports and has the potential to ease pressure on the Danube ports,” she says.
Image source, Lloyd's List
Image source, Daniel BayerNow a line on the wider war in Ukraine - the head of Britain's foreign intelligence service has said Russia will struggle to maintain its invasion, and Ukraine may be able to hit back.
MI6 chief Richard Moore said Russia had seen "epic fails" in its initial goals: namely, removing Ukraine's president, capturing Kyiv and sowing disunity in the West.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday, he called the invasion "the most egregious naked act of aggression... in Europe since the Second World War".
But he said recent Russian gains were "tiny" and that Russia was "about to run out of steam".
"Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks," Moore told the conference in Colorado.
"They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians the opportunity to strike back."
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent blockade of Black Sea ports, led to a reduction in wheat supply - and therefore a spike in prices.
The prospect of a deal to end the blockade has been followed by a noticeable dip in prices.
The price of Chicago wheat futures - a key benchmark for the global market - was down by more than 3% on Friday morning, while milling wheat was down more than 4%.
The price of UK feed wheat futures - a European benchmark for feed wheat (used for animals) - was down by almost 3%.
Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent
In theory, there's plenty in this deal for everyone.
For Ukraine, the first opportunity in almost five months to export anything from its Black Sea ports.
For Russia, arrangements to ease its own export difficulties - and challenge the notion that it's using food as a weapon.
And for the UN, a chance to address mounting concerns about global hunger.
But there's also plenty that could go wrong.
Ukraine fears that Russia could exploit any safe channels in the waters off Odesa for future military operations.
In a statement last night, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it would only support a deal which would guarantee “the security of the southern regions of Ukraine” and “the strong positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Black Sea".
For its part, Russia wants to be sure that Ukraine doesn’t try to use the deal to smuggle weapons and other supplies in.
And for shipping companies, it's also fraught with risk. A single explosion at sea could wreck the whole agreement.
Image source, Getty ImagesAnna Foster
Reporting from Istanbul
Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has arrived in Istanbul to sign the grain deal papers.
The Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov will lead its delegation.
If you're just joining us, here’s a rundown of what’s going on in Ukraine at the moment - both the grain deal, and the wider war.
Russia and Ukraine to sign deal to restart grain exports in Black Sea
Lavrov says Russia ready to expand war aims
Moscow abandons peace talks
Fighting continues in the east
Image source, .Anna Foster
Reporting from Istanbul
It's a deal that’s been months in the making.
And there's a lot at stake - 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain stuck in silos since the war began, and which is badly needed to feed some of the world’s poorest people across the Middle East and Africa.
Turkey says it's brokered an agreement that would allow Ukrainian and Russian cargo ships to start moving again. But there are crucial details that we’ll be watching out for.
The plan needs to include a safe way to avoid mines laid by the Ukrainians to secure their coastline, and also checks to guarantee that grain ships aren’t used as a cover to smuggle weapons.
Until the documents are officially signed there’s still some nervousness about whether the deal will really happen. But officials in Istanbul are confident, and say all parties are expected to come together and approve it in the next few hours.
Image source, Getty ImagesIf the deal is signed later, 20 million tonnes of grain that has been stuck in Ukraine will be exported to the wider world.
But after five months of war, there are concerns about deadly mines in the waters around the Black Sea ports.
For crews on cargo ships, they would have to move through these waters.
But with a lack of trust between the two warring sides, Ukraine is nervous about Russia’s promises of a ceasefire at sea.
Ukrainian officials have warned Moscow may seek "last minute changes" as a deal with Russia to allow Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea is set to be signed on Friday.
"A document may be signed that will contain the obligations of the parties regarding the safe operation of export routes in the Black Sea," Oleh Nikolenko, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman, says.
"The Ukrainian delegation will support only those decisions that will guarantee the security of the southern regions of Ukraine, the strong positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Black Sea, and the safe export of Ukrainian agricultural products to world markets," he adds.
Oleksiy Honcharenko, a Ukrainian MP close to the talks, voiced caution over the deal, telling BBC Radio 4’s World Tonight programme: "We don't have [an] agreement yet."
He continued:
Quote Message"We don't trust Russians at all. So let us wait till tomorrow for a final decision and that there will not be some pushbacks from Russians and last-minute changes. I keep fingers crossed tomorrow we'll have a deal and Russia will really respect it."
Image source, EPAAs we've been reporting, Turkey says a deal has been reached with Russia to allow Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea.
Ukraine is one of the world's leading grain producers - but Kyiv says the Russian navy currently prevents it shipping grain and other exports.
Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain producers and Russia has been blockading its major Black Sea ports. Russia has denied this - saying Ukraine has to de-mine waters.
The world shortage of Ukrainian grain since Russia's 24 February invasion has left millions at risk of hunger.
Image source, .Some countries in the Middle East and Africa in particular have been hit by the shortages. Libya and Eritrea get more than 40% of their wheat from Ukraine, and Lebanon 81%.
If the signing goes ahead as planned it will be the first significant deal between Russia and Ukraine since the invasion began.
The news that a deal could be struck to move millions of tonnes of grain out of Ukraine has led to a 2% fall in wheat prices.
Quote MessageThere's a sense of urgency right now which I think might be partly what is propelling this along. Ukraine was, prior to the war, the world's fifth largest wheat supplier. It's fallen down the rankings because of the blockade of its ports, but just today wheat prices globally are down 2% on the expectation of this deal being signed, which gives an indication of the impact it could have."
Laura Pitel, Financial Times Turkey correspondent in Ankara
Orla Guerin
Reporting from Istanbul
Grain that's badly needed around the world is stuck in silos in the Ukrainian port of Odessa, millions of tonnes of it.
It's understood the agreement to resume exports requires a sort of ceasefire at sea – Russia won't target ports while shipments are in transit and Ukrainian vessels will guide cargo ships through waters that have been mined. It will all be co-ordinated by Turkey, which has mediated between the two sides.
There are a lot of moving parts to this deal. But if it works, it will be a rare victory for diplomacy in a brutal war now in its fifth month.
The UN’s World Food Programme has warned that failing to open Ukraine's ports would result in famine.
Image source, Getty ImagesUkraine, Russia, Turkey and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres are expected to sign a deal later today allowing Ukraine to resume exports of grain through the Black Sea.
Officials say the plan includes:
The UN and Turkey have been working for two months to broker a grain deal, as Russia’s invasion caused a world shortage of Ukrainian grain and sent food prices soaring.
It's nearly 09:30 in London and 11:30 in Kyiv and Istanbul - welcome to our live coverage.
We're expecting a deal over Ukrainian grain exports to be signed this afternoon. The crucial deal, brokered by Turkey, would end a Russian blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports, hopefully unleashing grain supplies onto global markets and easing a food crisis that has seen skyrocketing prices since the Russian invasion.
That's the hope - but some are sceptical about it really happening.
Here’s what you need to know: