Vitaly Shevchenko
BBC Monitoring

All this talk of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin going to Belarus is based on just one source - remarks by the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

We've not heard anything from Prigozhin since yesterday evening, when he said that he was stopping his advance towards Moscow.

His social media accounts, the usual channels that he uses to communicate, have been silent.

So what is in the deal for Prigozhin?

It's clear what Putin got out of it. The Wagner mercenaries did a U-turn and stopped their advance towards Moscow.

But for Prigozhin, it seems to be a pretty bad deal because - if what the Kremlin is saying is true - he's being sent into exile in Belarus.

And as for his Wagner mercenary group, the Kremlin and the Russian Defence Ministry want its mercenaries to sign official contracts with the military, which can be seen as the end of the Wagner.

Image source, Reuters

There are lots of unanswered questions about the deal that Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin struck to end the rebellion, and about what happens next.

One of things we don't know is where Prigozhin is right now.

He was last seen in a car leaving Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday - the city in southern Russian he had claimed to control for a day.

He smiled as he shook hands with some cheering local residents. as you can see from the photo above.

His next destination is now meant to be Belarus, following a reported deal brokered by that country's strongman leader Alexander Lukashenko, a key ally of President Vladimir Putin.

But Prigozhin has since been tight-lipped about his immediate itinerary.

A no-fly zone is currently in force in south-western Russia, meaning that the closest operating airports to Rostov are in Volgograd and Sochi - but each are about 400km (250 miles) away.

Prigozhin could theoretically travel by car or train - but it's a long way to Belarus, as he has to bypass Ukraine.

We can bring you more reaction now to the events in Russia, where the Wagner Group rebellion is over - but not without damage to Putin's image.

Polish MEP Radek Sikorski said Putin is both "weakened and strengthened" after Prigozhin's rebellion.

Speaking to BBC 5Live Breakfast, Sikorski said Putin's vulnerabilities were exposed when "a group of armed men were able to cross [thousands of] kilometres of Russia hardly challenged".

But, Sikorski said the Russian leader will now "probably purge those who he saw as wavering", meaning his regime will become "more authoritarian and more brutal at the same time".

We're waiting to see how the Kremlin reacts to what's happened this weekend. We'll bring you more news - and analysis - as it happens.

Chechen forces are now leaving Russia's southern Rostov region and returning to the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, Russia's state-run Tass news agency reports.

The Chechen forces were urgently deployed to the Rostov region on Saturday, tasked with squashing a mutiny by Wagner mercenaries who had seized the local capital Rostov-on-Don.

But a deal was reportedly reached late that day to resolve the crisis, and Wagner fighters left the city shortly afterwards.

Tass quotes Apty Alaudinov, deputy commander of the Akhmat special unit, as saying his fighters are going back to the area around the Ukrainian city of Mariinka - the scene of fierce fighting in recent months.

Despite Vladimir Putin’s strong words on national television yesterday, the Russian president “doesn’t come out of this looking very strong”, says the BBC’s Russia editor.

Speaking from Moscow, Steve Rosenberg says Putin began yesterday by saying Russia had been “stabbed in the back” by the Wagner Group’s attempted mutiny.

By the end of the day its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, whom Putin had labelled a traitor, had all the charges against him dropped.

“We don’t know all the details of the agreement that was reached between the Kremlin and Wagner,” he tells the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

Perhaps more details will emerge in the coming days - but Putin doesn’t look particularly strong after this, Rosenberg reiterates.

Andrew Harding
Reporting from the Donbas region

Here in the Donbas, we’re watching the extraordinary events in Russia very closely, as are Ukraine’s military, who are in the middle of their own counter-offensive.

The very long front line is only shifting by a few meters, a few villages here and there.

Everybody is waiting to see where and when the Ukrainians may commit the bulk of their newly trained forces, with their Western-supplies weapons.

There are potential new opportunities for the Ukrainians to exploit. There are questions about where the Wagner forces have withdrawn from.

Russian forces will no doubt have heard what’s been going on and will be demoralised. There might be in-fighting between rival units in the days to come, depending on what sort of aftershocks there are back in Russia following yesterday’s remarkable events.

Right now, as well as risks of an escalation from Russia, Ukraine will be searching for opportunities from the instability across the border.

Olga Ivshina
BBC News Russian

He will definitely react by showing force - he has always done so.

This could be further clamping down on internal freedoms and even stronger regulation of the media sphere, including influential Telegram channels.

Or Putin may conduct another set of military strikes on the territory of Ukraine.

Or maybe both.

One thing is clear - if Ukraine breaks Russian fortifications on the frontline next week, Moscow will definitely blame that on Wagner and its so-called betrayal.

Olga Ivshina
BBC News Russian

Image source, EPA

Prigozhin’s rebellion challenges the image of unity and stability that Putin and his state media were trying to project for years.

Some members of the political elites panicked. Flight radar services pinged dozens of private jets leaving Moscow.

But it wasn't a systemic crisis.

Regional governors were quick and unanimous in pledging public allegiance to Moscow.

These scenes were very different from 1991 - another attempted military coup. Back then, some of the regional leaders quickly aligned with the rebels. We saw nothing even close to that yesterday.

At the same time, Putin’s image was clearly ruptured.

As we've been reporting, Prigozhin called off his rebellion after talks with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, and, according to the Kremlin, he is heading to Belarus.

Hanna Liubakova, a Belarusian journalist and researcher, said the deal shows that "Lukashenko plays the role of Putin's puppet".

Liubakova said Lukashenko doesn't have "enough tools to stop Prigozhin from doing the same thing again".

"Let's remember that in just one day... Prigozhin was able to almost reach Moscow.

"So I don't really think that a man with such ambitions and inability to risk in this situation would really listen to Lukashenko," she said.

Prigozhin's rebellion will "definitely affect the moods inside Belarus" as it exposed Putin's weaknesses, Liubakova added.

Marina Litvinenko - whose husband Alexander Litvinenko was a critic of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, before being killed in 2006 - has said the attempted rebellion reveals Putin's weaknesses.

It shows Putin's "brutal" image is "just for frightening people", she tells the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg show.

It sends a "special message" about President Putin's power. "Putin is not a person who controls anything," she says.

She also warns against praising Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"Prigozhin is not a hero, he is a criminal, and he committed a lot of bad things in Ukraine," says Marina Litvinenko.

Read more about Alexander Litvinenko and his death here.

The movement of Wagner units through the Russian region of Voronezh is nearing its end, local governor Alexander Gusev says.

On Saturday, Wagner claimed to have taken control of all military facilities in the regional capital Voronezh, and also in Rostov-on-Don, further south. Later, its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to end its rebellion.

In a social media post, Gusev says the movement of Wagner troops is happening "without incidents", and all the earlier imposed restrictions - including on highways - would be lifted after the situation "is resolved".

The governor didn't specify whether this meant that Wagner fighters were fully leaving the region, which lies about 450km (280 miles) south of the capital Moscow.

Wagner fighters and the group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin were seen leaving Rostov late on Saturday.

You can see both Rostov and Voronezh on the map below.

Ukraine's forces are in a good position to exploit weaknesses in Russia's army caused by Prigozhin's attempted rebellion, the former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, has said.

Taylor said Ukraine was already preparing to commit its forces into its counteroffensive before the uprising, and is "pleased that their enemy is in disarray".

Ukrainian troops know they need to move now as Putin could regenerate his forces over the long term, Taylor added.

"They've been preparing their new brigades, newly equipped, newly trained, ready to go," he told BBC News.

Sarah Rainsford
BBC Eastern Europe Correspondent in Warsaw

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Putin does not like betrayal. He hates it. He absolutely loathes it.

So to have the Kremlin say criminal charges are being dropped against all the Wagner troops involved in the mutiny is frankly quite hard to believe. Let’s see how it works going forward.

We are also told that those who were not involved can go back to their positions, and return to the fight.

But there is a key difference.

The Wagner Group was being absorbed into the defence ministry. Its days as a mercenary group independently operating and financed were coming to an end.

Its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had a long-running feud with the ministry, and was resisting his troops being absorbed into it.

I think that is what pushed Prigozhin to such radial action.

Whether or not those Wagner fighters will sign contracts and join the Russian defence ministry is a question yet to be answered.

This is still not over for Putin. It is a crisis that has been averted, but I don’t think he’s completely overcome it yet.

We've been bringing you reports from US media that the White House knew about the Wagner rebellion ahead of time. Well, the US may have picked up that Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning something as early as mid-June, according to US officials speaking to the Washington Post.

A key trigger was a decree on 10 June by Russia's defence ministry ordering all volunteer detachments - like the Wagner Group - to sign contracts with the government, which would effectively be a takeover of Prigozhin's mercenary troops.

Officials told the paper “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up” - but the exact nature of Prigozhin's plans weren't clear until shortly before the mutiny began.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was also told by his own intelligence that Prigozhin was plotting something, the paper reported.

It is not clear precisely when he was told, but it was “definitely more than 24 hours ago”, the paper quoted a US official as saying on Saturday.

While Prigozhin's mutiny appeared to catch the Kremlin off guard, US spy agencies had already picked up signs he was planning to act and had briefed President Biden along with key congressional leaders earlier this week, US media report.

US intelligence spotted that the mercenary group leader was massing weapons, ammunition and other equipment near the border with Russia, CNN reported.

The New York Times reports that President Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany and Britain because of concerns that Putin's control of Russia's vast nuclear weapons arsenal could slip amid the chaos.

US spy chiefs had been tracking the deteriorating relationship between Prigozhin and Russian defence officials for months and intelligence had concluded it was a sign the war in Ukraine was going badly for both Wagner and the regular military, the paper says.

Jaroslav Lukiv

Image source, Reuters

After 24 hours of mutiny mayhem in Russia, the crisis seems to have fizzled out. Wagner group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's next destination is reported to be Belarus after a deal was reached with that country's strongman leader, Alexander Lukashenko.

As for Russian President Vladimir Putin: Well, he seems to have survived one of the most serious challenges to his authoritarian rule in recent years.

But a number of Kremlin watchers - both in Russia and abroad - say Putin has been badly bruised by such a public stand-off with Prigozhin, who once was a very loyal supporter and even nicknamed "Putin's chef" for catering contracts given to him by Moscow.

And Putin has now also lost his monopoly to use force: This was shown quite spectacularly by Prigozhin when he took control of military sites in two major Russian cities.

On Saturday morning, a stern-looking Putin delivered a nationwide TV address, accusing Prigozhin of a "stab in the back" and treason.

Putin has not been seen in public since then, and late on Saturday his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said no new presidential address was being planned in the near future.

Sarah Rainsford
BBC Eastern Europe Correspondent in Warsaw

Money? Possibly, although I think he has quite a lot of that. Certainly a lot was found at his premises during searches yesterday.

And what guarantee was he given for his security, and his role going forward?

The Wagner leader has been an important figure for President Putin, operating in the shadows for a long time.

Prigozhin has been doing dirty work for the Kremlin, from fighting in Syria to fighting in Ukraine in 2014, when it annexed Crimea. He’s also been involved in spreading disinformation with the so-called "troll farms".

It will be interesting to know exactly what deal was done with him to allow him to head to Belarus, and what he’s going to do going forward.

I don’t expect him to retire quietly, and it’s not clear what exactly he’ll be doing next.

He is not a man who’s going to disappear quietly into the night.

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin likely gambled on securing defections in the Russian military, but overestimated his own prospects, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says.

Analysts believe Prigozhin's failed rebellion was a bid to retain his mercenary force's independence, external, espcially given the Russian military chiefs' 1 July deadline to bring Wagner under their command structure.

The truce brokered by Belarus' leader Alexander Lukashenko effectively strips Prigozhin of control of the Wagner Group in its current form in exchange for dropping criminal charges against him.

"However, it is unclear if Wagner forces will willingly cooperate in their integration under the Russian Ministry of Defense, or if the Russian military will willingly serve alongside Wagner Group personnel in the future," they write.

Wagner troops left Rostov-on-Don to sound of applause and gunshotspublished at 08:03 British Summer Time 25 June 2023

08:03 BST 25 June 2023

One of the key moments overnight was when Wagner mercenaries left Rostov-on-Don, an important Russian city that they had effectively taken control of during their rebellion.

They left after their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to end the mutiny and go to Belarus. Neither he nor his troops will face charges, the Kremlin said.

As Wagner troops left the city, they were greeted by an apparently supportive crowd who cheered, clapped and took photos (although it's worth noting that some residents had seemingly rushed to leave the city by train on Saturday after Wagner arrived).

In the video below - verified by the BBC Verify team - you can also hear gunshots as some of the fighters fire their weapons into the air.

Samuel Horti
Live reporter

Good morning from London.

I'm joined by my colleagues Jaroslav Lukiv, James Harness and Aoife Walsh. Along with our correspondents and regional experts, we'll try to explain what exactly happened in Russia over the past few tumultuous days - and why.

We'll also bring you the latest updates as they happen.