Civilian casualties could soarpublished at 23:56 British Summer Time 9 October 2023
Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent
For all the unprecedented horror surrounding the start of this episode, events now may start to follow a pattern familiar from previous Gaza “wars”.
Israel knows that a wave of international sympathy and goodwill gives its military a window of opportunity to conduct extensive military operations inside Gaza.
One former government official told me Israel will have “at least two weeks” before calls for restraint from Washington (the only power that matters here) will become hard to resist.
If Israel is determined to deal a decisive blow to Hamas, this will inevitably involve a massive ground operation, at which point civilian casualties – already high – are likely to soar.
Complicating matters enormously is the fate of at least 100 Israeli hostages – soldiers and civilians - now being held in Gaza.
If Hamas starts killing the civilians, the former official told me, “we will do to Hamas what the world did with ISIS and al-Qaeda”.