Zelensky's 'complicated' warpublished at 08:12 Greenwich Mean Time 21 December 2023

08:12 GMT 21 December 2023

James Waterhouse
Ukraine correspondent

Image source, EPA

When asked by the BBC whether Ukraine would eventually lose this war, President Zelensky’s answer resembled a Facebook relationship status.

"No, but everyone understands it’s complicated," was his reply.

The point is, Ukraine’s leader is having to choose his words carefully as he faces a new reality with Russia’s invasion.

He has never said he’s "losing" - but for the first time his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has admitted Ukraine "could" if the West drops its support.

Last February, a year into the full-scale invasion, I asked President Zelensky what the reason could be if Ukraine was still fighting a year later.

He said: "I don’t even want to think about it, it’s drama."

As this year closes, his art is about to imitate life.

Senior US politicians have chosen to go on their Christmas break instead of unlock a £47bn military package for Ukraine.

Hungary has also blocked a £43bn offering from the European Union. All as Kyiv admits it’s downsizing military operations with waning support and dwindling ammunition.

Its military is also wanting to mobilise up to half a million extra people.

Ukraine will almost certainly still be fighting this war two years into the full-scale invasion.

Volodymyr Zelensky is warning his country could still lose. Vladimir Putin is simply waiting for the West to further lose interest.

These maps show how control of Ukraine has changed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

But since Ukraine made big gains late last year, there have not been large changes to the front lines - despite Ukraine attempting a major counter-offensive this summer.

Earlier this month, a top Ukrainian official told our correspondent in Kyiv, Jessica Parker, that the counter-offensive did not succeed.

But Oleksiy Danilov insisted: "That doesn't mean that victory won't be on our side."

Avdiivka is a town in eastern Ukraine, sometimes described as the gateway to the major city of Donetsk.

There's been fighting here since 2014, but since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion last February, the population has shrunk from more than 30,000 to around 1,000.

Russia launched a major attack on Avdiivka in October, and has made some advances - see the map below.

On Thursday morning, Ukraine insisted it "continues to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka".

The military update says , externalUkrainian soldiers:

• Are "standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders"
• Have "repelled 14 attacks in the vicinities of Novokalynove, east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka"
• And have repelled "22 more attacks near Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke, and Nevel’s’ke"

We'll bring you more on the battle for Avdiivka, including the Russian claims, later this morning.

Owen Amos
Live reporter

Image source, Getty Images

Good morning from London, and welcome to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine.

We'll bring you the major lines and analysis from our team of reporters around the world.

This afternoon, our correspondents in Kyiv, Moscow, London, and Washington DC will answer your questions - email them to yourquestions@bbc.co.uk, external. You can also WhatsApp +44 7756 165803.

Thanks for joining us.