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BBC Persian TV business correspondent Amir Paivar is told by an Iranian CEO that the tension accompanying the nuclear deal is like the TV drama Game of Thrones.

We leave it to readers to judge whether Trump is Jon Snow or the Night King, according to this scenario...

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President Trump’s European allies are expecting him to announce today he is pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, EU allies tell BBC News.

But they say they have no idea what 'Plan B' looks like or what the White House will do about reapplying sanctions on Iran, we're told.

On Monday, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson appeared on Fox & Friends - the president's favourite morning news programme - to appeal to Trump not to "throw the baby out with the bathwater".

"Plan B does not seem, to me, to be particularly well developed at this stage," said Johnson.

A senior White House official denied the New York Times report that said Trump told Macron he would withdraw from the Iran deal, according to Reuters.

"The president did not tell Macron those things," the unnamed official said.

According to the Pew Research Center, a pollster, more Americans say they disapprove (40%) of the accord than those that approve (32%).

Approval has slowly risen since the pact was signed in 2015, but relatively few Americans (27%) say they have heard "a lot" about the landmark agreement's details.

Republicans mostly disagree with the deal (53%), but some (22%) say they approve of it.

Democrats' opinions have changed very little since 2015, Pew notes, finding that 43% approve of the deal while 30% disapprove.

Oil prices dived as much as 3.5% as traders sold off after a CNN report that sparked doubts about whether Trump would impose sanctions on Iran as quickly as the market had expected.

That decision would reduce global crude supplies and feed tensions in the Middle East.

However, the New York Times then reported that Mr Trump had told French President Macron the US was going to pull out of the deal.

Oil prices then regained ground, with Brent trading 1.8% down at $74.79 per barrel.

Reuters later reported the French denying Trump had told Macron of his decision.

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The European Union released a statement that came just before it was reported that Trump had told France's Macron the US would withdraw.

"The EU takes note of today's statement of President of the United States Donald Trump concerning the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA)," says the EU.

"As a first step, we will coordinate with the E3 and the other EU Member States to jointly assess the statement and its implications.

"We remain committed to the continued full and effective implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action."

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Oil prices have already fallen ahead of a statement tonight by US President Donald Trump where he is expected to pull the US out of a multi-nation agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme.

But markets have for the most part already priced in Trump not renewing Iran sanctions waivers, says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob.

"It's something we've been focusing on for a couple of months now and today is decision day," he says.

And despite shorter term geopolitical instability, in the longer term the US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal could push oil prices up, Barclays research analysts said.

"The geopolitical consequences of a possible dismantling of the (Iran deal) would likely play a larger and long-lasting role in pushing oil prices higher than short-term policy uncertainty," the analysts said.

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Persian speakers can follow the BBC Persian service's live page here.

برجام؛ ترامپ تصمیم آمریکا را اعلام می‌کند

BBC Persian teams are in place in around the world, gathering reaction.

Obama foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes and other former Obama-era diplomats are already pronouncing last rites on the deal.

Jake Sullivan, who was chief foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton, and Kelly Magsamen, of the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, have also been weighing in.

The French presidency is saying Trump did not talk about his Iran decision with Emmanuel Macron during their phone call today, according to Reuters.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard deputy commander Hossein Salami issued a defiant statement on Tuesday, reports Fars news agency: "Our nation is not afraid of US sanctions or military attack.

"Our enemies including America, the Zionist regime and the allies in the region should know that Iran has prepared for the worst scenarios and threats."

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is due to speak after Trump on Tuesday. Rouhani has already emphasised his country continues to seek "engagement with the world".

"It is possible we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this," Rouhani said.

On Monday, Rouhani suggested Iran might stick with the deal if the European Union can offer some guarantees to the Islamic Republic.

European nations do far more business with Iran than the US, but it's far from clear that European banks and businesses would risk potential US financial punishment by continuing to deal with Tehran.

Image source, Reuters

European officials expect Trump to announce he is pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.

A senior UK diplomat tells the BBC the Foreign Office is "deeply pessimistic" about his announcement.

European Union policy chief Federica Mogherini, who helped to negotiate the deal, will hold a televised press conference after Trump's announcement.

One senior European official closely involved in Iranian diplomacy told Reuters news agency US officials had indicated late on Monday that Trump would withdraw from the agreement.

Russia, one of the accord's signatories, said on Tuesday a US withdrawal would have harmful consequences.

One senior Western diplomat said there was a call last week between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and European officials, at which America's top diplomat made clear the effort to save the deal "was over".

Image source, Reuters

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The New York Times, external has reported that Trump told Macron he will announce US withdrawal from the Iran deal on Tuesday.

The Times also reported that a source familiar with the negotiations said the deal fell through due to Trump's insistence that limits on Iran's nuclear fuel production remain even after 2030.

Currently, the 2015 deal limits Iran's nuclear production for 15 years and would end in 2030.

The story suggests Trump will go for a hard exit: "The United States is preparing to reinstate all sanctions it had waived as part of the nuclear accord - and impose additional economic penalties as well, the person said."

Frank Gardner
BBC Security Correspondent

Nowhere - apart from Israel - is more concerned about Iran than the Gulf Arab states, specifically Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

But while today's announcement by President Trump is closely monitored in those countries' capitals, these Sunni Gulf monarchies have fears that extend far beyond the remit of the 2015 JCPOA Iran nuclear deal.

Their most immediate worry is Iran's rapid advances in ballistic missile technology, prompting them to invest heavily in their own air defences.

The US has military facilities in all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, all of which are within missile range. But should a full-scale war ever erupt in the Gulf then petrochemical plants, oil export terminals and vital water desalination plants could all be on the target list.

The Arab states' longer-term concern is the strategic expansion of Iran's proxy militias and allies across much of the region. These include Hezbollah in Syria, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

That said, if the Iran deal were to collapse altogether, we could also see an accelerated and dangerous arms race across the Middle East.

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Here are two options that Trump could choose:

Soft exit: Instead of once again maintaining sanctions relief on Iran’s central bank (allowing oil exports), the president announces he will not sign the waiver by Saturday's deadline. His administration can give those doing business in Iran a six-month grace period to wind up their affairs in order to avoid violating the US sanctions. The administration could ease the blow of reimposing nuclear-related sanctions by creating exemptions for certain companies or countries.

Hard exit: Trump could slap back on additional sanctions that are due to resume in July unless he signs the waiver by 12 May. Those sanctions relate to more than 400 specific Iranian companies, individuals and business sectors. If the US signals it will reimpose both sets of sanctions on Tuesday, that would be the "nuclear option", say some experts.

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Despite shuttle diplomacy from America’s European allies, diplomats sound pessimistic that they have succeeded in persuading Trump to stick with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which curbs the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

The US president has long assailed the accord as "insane" and "the worst deal ever".

If he announces the US is to withdraw, as many expect, it may be his most consequential decision as president since coming into office 15 months ago.

Resuming US sanctions could well lead Iran to exit the deal between six world powers, and even restart its nuclear programme.

Its unclear how far Trump plans to go with his announcement today.

Stay tuned for his decision at 14:00 Washington time (18:00 GMT).