Image source, University of California Irvine

Americans will be familiar with Jim Crow - a system of laws and de facto regulations that arose after slavery was abolished, carefully crafted to ensure black people remained second-class citizens.

If the Supreme Court were to overturn Roe v Wade, the US would enter a new “Jane Crow” era that would see the continued erosion of women’s rights, Michele Goodwin, a constitutional law professor and reproductive rights advocate, tells the BBC.

"This is the new Jane Crow, where women are subjected to the same arcane types of social principles, conservative cultural standards, and laws that we saw before Roe," she says.

"This is the return of a playbook that’s really meant to render women as second-class citizens."

Image source, Reuters

Foreign officials and observers have expressed surprise at the news coming from the US Supreme Court.

A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters that while the issue should be decided by the US, the UK - where abortions are legal until the 24-week mark - "defends the productive rights of women globally".

Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, tweeted that "the right of women to decide what happens to our bodies is a human right".

In Spain - where abortions are broadly legal until 14 weeks of pregnancy - a senior government official said that the overturning of Roe v Wade would be "an alarming step back with terrible consequence for American women".

"We need to continue protecting sexual and reproductive rights, in the US and in all the world," said Yolanda Diaz, the country's second deputy prime minister.

In Canada, commentator and political consultant Warren Kinsella wrote in the Toronto Sun that the overturn of Roe v Wade would have "big Canadian political consequences".

"Abortion is the ultimate political wedge — one that mobilizes most Canadian women, of all stripes, to vote to maintain control over their bodies," he wrote.

Meanwhile, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has called the leak of the internal draft decision "a shocking new breach".

He argues it is a "pressure campaign" by liberals to "sway the outcome" of the controversial Mississippi abortion case.

He says it's a "Hail Mary attempt to cause a political firestorm".

Speaking on the Senate floor earlier, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer laid the "blame for this decision" - referring to the leaked draft ruling - at the feet of his Republican colleagues.

He also said the US Senate will vote on legislation to codify abortion rights into law - though he did not say when that vote may be held.

As we reported earlier, today's leak centres on a case involving an abortion law in Mississippi.

Now, the Mississippi chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) says the draft ruling "grossly tosses aside" long-standing legal protections against forced pregnancy.

In a statement, Jarvis Dortch, the executive director of the ACLU of Mississippi, said that the "the pending decision from this case has the power to be the exact roadmap to reverse decades of progress".

Dortch believes that other rights could be threatened in the future, including "the right to contraceptives, same-sex marriage, and the inherent right to privacy".

"However the decision comes down, the ACLU of Mississippi will never stop fighting for the right to choose when and if to have a child," Dortch added.

Image source, Reuters

We've just had this statement from US Vice-President Kamala Harris.

"The United States Supreme Court has now confirmed that the draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade is genuine.

"Roe ensures a woman’s right to choose to have an abortion. It also, at its root, protects the fundamental right to privacy.

"What is clear is that opponents of Roe want to punish women and take away their rights to make decisions about their own bodies. Republican legislators in states across the country are weaponizing the use of the law against women.

"The rights of all Americans are at risk. If the right to privacy is weakened, every person could face a future in which the government can potentially interfere in the personal decisions you make about your life.

"This is the time to fight for women and for our country with everything we have."

Could gay marriage be challenged?published at 17:22 British Summer Time 3 May 2022

17:22 BST 3 May 2022

Anthony Zurcher
BBC North America reporter

The decision enshrining a national right to gay marriage is not nearly as old or as established as Roe.

And Roe itself rested on a 1965 decision, Griswold v Connecticut, securing the nationwide right to birth control.

In his leaked draft opinion, Justice Samuel Alito drew a distinction between rights spelled out in the constitution – such as the Second Amendment right to bear arms – and the kind of “unenumerated rights” that the court in Roe said guaranteed access to abortion (and, although Alito did not mention it, also protect gay marriage and contraception).

The justice opined that the former were much more secure than the latter, which need to be strongly rooted in US history and tradition.

It may not be long before opponents of gay marriage, or in vitro fertilisation, or certain forms of contraception, cite Alito’s words to make the argument that there is nothing in the constitution that prohibits bans on those practices, either.

Image source, Getty Images

The Supreme Court has been asked to rule on a Mississippi law that challenges Roe v Wade.

Judging by the leak, it appears poised to accept the state's law that would bar abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, even in cases of rape or incest.

A final ruling, expected in June, may see millions of women lose abortion access. Why?

Lawyers defending the Mississippi law asked the court during arguments last December to overturn previous landmark decisions regarding abortion, including Roe v Wade.

The case marks the first time since that 1973 decision that the court will rule on the constitutionality of a pre-viability abortion ban, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights.

Addressing the court, anti-abortion activists urged the justices to "protect unborn children", but experts warn of an increase in maternal mortality if abortion is restricted.

Both sides of the debate regard this case, known as Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization, as an all-or-nothing fight over abortion rights.

As we reported earlier, the Supreme Court says its work will not be affected "in any way" by the leak.

But public anger may result in "on the fence" justices changing their views, according to Jessie Hill, a reproductive rights attorney professor at Case Western University in Ohio.

Hill tells the BBC the court could still "cut either way" and that the outcome is by no means certain.

"It [the draft opinion] was from February and votes could have already changed during the deliberation process," she says.

"It's also a distinct possibility that the reaction, and the political reaction, could move someone who's on the fence."

On the other hand, Hill said that justices may be concerned that switching votes could lead to them being seen as "too responsive" to pressure.

"They might look like they're betraying their principles," she said. "So [the leak] could actually work the other way towards keeping the vote count the way it is."

How Roe v Wade shaped US historypublished at 16:53 British Summer Time 3 May 2022

16:53 BST 3 May 2022

Anthony Zurcher
BBC North America reporter

It is difficult to overstate how much the 1973 Roe decision has shaped US history over the last half century.

It led to the rise of the evangelical movement within the Republican Party, as Christian conservatives formed a political identity around abortion – and other social and cultural issues - and worked to influence Republican policies through their activism.

Both parties shifted and became increasingly polarised as a result of Roe. In the first few decades after the decision, it was common to have pro-abortion-rights Republicans and anti-abortion Democrats.

Over the decades, both parties slowly purged themselves of these outliers, as they became increasingly aligned on cultural and (as a consequence) geographic boundaries.

The maps of where abortion will be banned or greatly limited that are circulating in the media bear a striking resemblance to the red-state, blue-state maps that are familiar to anyone who follows US presidential elections.

The nation, with a few exceptions, has divided into coastal and urban liberal enclaves and heartland and southern conservative strongholds.

The abortion debate – and the cultural wars that followed – help explain why.

Few probably predicted the course American politics would take after the Roe decision. And the shape of political landscape if the draft opinion striking down Roe becomes the law of the land is equally uncertain.

The abortion fight could simply shift from the courts to the state legislatures, keeping US politics much as they are today. The cultural wars driven by the debate could fade, as the nation settles into an uneasy balance of states with abortion guarantees or bans.

Or the battles could become hyper-charged by the prospective ruling and move to other hot-button social issues that, like abortion, rest on Supreme Court precedent.

President Joe Biden released a written statement earlier - now he is speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews as he prepares to leave for a visit to Alabama.

"If this decision holds, it's really quite a radical decision," he says. "It's a fundamental shift in American jurisprudence."

He adds "a whole range of rights" involving privacy, including equal marriage, could be in jeopardy if the court moves to overturn Roe v Wade.

Image source, Getty Images

US Supreme Court Justice John Roberts Jr has just released a statement, confirming the leaked document was authentic.

He has asked the Marshall of the Supreme Court to launch an investigation into the leak of a draft opinion, saying that the work of the court "will not be affected in any way".

In a statement, Roberts said that court employees "have an exemplary and important tradition of respecting the confidentiality of the judicial process and upholding the trust of the court".

"This was a singular and egregious breach of that trust that is an affront to the court and the community of public servants who work here," he added.

"I have directed the marshall of the court to launch an investigation into the source of the leak."

The coming congressional fightpublished at 16:25 British Summer Time 3 May 2022

16:25 BST 3 May 2022

Anthony Zurcher
BBC North America reporter

If Roe v Wade falls, the US Congress could pass a law that does essentially what the Supreme Court has mandated for the last 50 years – make abortion legal in every US state.

The path to getting there, however, would be a difficult one for abortion rights advocates.

Last year, the House of Representatives, controlled by the Democratic Party, voted to approve legislation that would secure – and, in some cases expand - the abortion rights afforded by the Roe decision.

The vote was 218 in favour and 211 against, with one Democrat joining every Republican in voting no.

The bill then moved to the evenly divided Senate, where one Democrat – Joe Manchin of West Virginia – joined the Republicans in voting it down.

Because of Senate rules that several Democrats (including Mr Manchin) are adamantly against altering, passage would have required 60 votes out of the 100 senators – a mark the abortion bill did not approach.

With the draft opinion leak, Democrats will renew their efforts to pass legal abortion protections that would stop the dozens of states poised to ban the procedure.

Leaders in the House could scale back the scope of their proposal in an attempt to woo Senate Republicans sympathetic to abortion rights, such as Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

They could again try to change Senate rules to allow a simple majority vote to approve legislation – an effort that was unsuccessful during a voting-rights fight last year.

They could also move forward with proposals to add new (presumably liberal) justices to an expanded Supreme Court or try to impeach and remove Donald Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices – like Brett Kavanaugh – who noted the significance of Roe’s 50-year precedent and now are at least entertaining the notion of striking the decision down.

The chances of success on such measures range from slim to remote in the extreme – which will put even more pressure on Democrats to win congressional elections in the autumn.

And, if seems quite possible at the moment, Republicans take back at least partial control of Congress instead, the door will firmly shut on Democratic hopes of a national legislative response to Roe’s demise.

The President and CEO of Americans United for Life, a Washington DC-based anti-abortion law firm and advocacy group, has applauded the contents of the leaked draft opinion, and called on the court to "maintain the moral high ground" amid public uproar.

In a statement posted to the organisation's website, CEO Catherine Glenn Foster said it was "outrageous" that the draft language was leaked, adding that it was "presumably by pro-abortion staffers within the court".

"It is a cynical and naked attempt to pressure justices to alter course...and to perpetuate abortion violence," she said.

"The court should maintain the moral high ground, stick to the clear and courageous language of this draft opinion, and not allow itself to be ruled by the expectations of pro-abortion activists or proxy media allies."

Image source, Getty Images

If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade this summer, there will no longer be a nationwide guarantee to abortion.

In many states, it's already very difficult to obtain one - particularly in the south and mid-west.

Without the protection of Roe, 22 states are set to immediately crack down on clinics providing abortions - making abortion illegal for roughly 36 million American women.

Studies predict the average driving distance to abortion providers would increase by up to 791 miles if Roe is overturned.

And so even though many states, like California and Illinois, will still provide abortions, the distance alone could put the procedure out of reach for millions of women.

Why? Women seeking abortions in the US are disproportionately young (in their mid-twenties), poor, and already have at least one child.

For these women, the cost of transport, time off work and time away from home may be too high a price to pay.

"Access to abortion will become a practical unreality for most people," said Katherine Franke, director of the center for gender and sexuality law at Columbia University.

"For lower-income pregnant people, it will be devastating."

The anti-abortion group Texas Right to Life has welcomed the Supreme Court leaked ruling - and said it believes that pro-choice advocates will attempt to "influence" the judges before a final opinion is issued.

In a blog post, Texas Right to Life said that if Roe V Wade was reversed, Texas would "immediately protect all pre-born children from elective abortion".

It added that while it was previously clear that the Supreme Court "intended to change something" in US abortion jurisprudence, "the degree of that change was unknown" until now.

The post called on anti-abortion advocates to "pray for the Supreme Court justices" before a final decision is made - likely by June or July.

"Pray they remain strong," it said. "We must overturn Roe v Wade."

Image source, EPA

Good morning from Washington DC. If you're just joining us, here's a quick round-up of the latest:

• On Monday night, a draft ruling from the US Supreme Court was published by Politico
• The document, called "1st draft", was written by Justice Samuel Alito
• It says the court is prepared to overturn Roe v Wade - the 1973 ruling that legalised abortion across the US
• If the ruling is overturned, states would be able to set their own abortion laws
• That would mean abortion would be illegal in 13 states immediately, as they have so-called "trigger laws"
• Other states would follow - meaning abortion could be illegal in half of American states
• President Biden reacted to the leak by saying a woman's right to choose is "fundamental", and that he would work to pass laws that protect abortion

Image source, Getty Images

Planned Parenthood, the largest single provider of reproductive health services in the US, has released a statement.

“Let's be clear: abortion is legal. It is still your right.

"This leaked opinion is horrifying and unprecedented, and it confirms our worst fears: that the Supreme Court is prepared to end the constitutional right to abortion by overturning Roe v Wade.

"Planned Parenthood health centres remain open, abortion is currently still legal, and we will continue to fight like hell to protect the right to access safe, legal abortion."

While public discourse on abortion has intensified in recent years, public opinion has remained relatively stable.

A majority of Americans (62%) told Pew Research in 2019 that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Only 38% said it should be illegal in all or most cases.

Similar figures were reflected by CBS News in 2021, when people were asked specifically about overturning Roe v Wade.

In that poll, 62% of those asked said they wanted it kept in place and only 38% said they wanted it struck down.