Sarah Smith
North America editor in Des Moines

Eric Trump just did a quick tour of the venue where Donald Trump is planning to hold a watch party later tonight.

I asked him how quickly his father can wrap up this nomination and become the presumptive Republican nominee.

He says he is certain the contest will be over by Super Tuesday (5 March) but hopes an “unbelievable showing tonight” could wrap it all up sooner.

He says “we are running not against each other, but we are running against Joe Biden and everybody wants him out of the White House".

"The entire country wants him out of the White House. Frankly the entire world wants him out of the White House. We’ve become a laughing stock and it's got to stop. Hopefully it stops in Iowa.”

Some polls suggest the former president could get more support than all of his rivals combined. Eric defines an “absolutely massive win” as anything more than 12 points ahead of their closest rival, as that’s the previous Iowa record.

Why is Iowa the centre of attention?published at 22:57 Greenwich Mean Time 15 January

22:57 GMT 15 January

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from Des Moines, Iowa

Generoso Diaz, 75, from the US asks: Kindly tell me why the small state of Iowa becomes the centre of attention before the country holds its national election?

That’s a great question that will be on the minds of many today.

The answer is purely a function of the calendar - the date of tonight’s caucuses make it the first real-world test for the Republican candidates in this election cycle, and offers them a sort of litmus test going forward.

“It’s entirely about the calendar. It’s important because it's the first,” Drake University professor Rachel Caufield told me recently. “It’s not first because it’s important.”

State officials are quick to point out the caucuses are not necessarily good at predicting the eventual nominee, but instead allow candidates to gauge public reaction to them.

“In Iowa we don’t pick the next candidate,” State Republican Chairman Jeff Kaufmann told me in November on the sidelines of a Vivek Ramaswamy event. “We are the state that creates a neutral playing field where we can vet the next candidate.”

“Regardless of who wins and regardless of the lead that person has, as long as every single candidate has gotten to say their piece and at least provided themselves for other people to hear, we’ve done our job here,” he added.

“Individuals with a dream can come here and make their case.”

How many delegates are up for grabs?published at 22:45 Greenwich Mean Time 15 January

22:45 GMT 15 January

Kayla Epstein
US reporter

Peter, 24, from California asks: How many delegates are up for grabs? Do caucuses have a winner-take-all delegate format?

To win the Republican nomination, you need a majority of national party delegates who will vote for you at the Republican National Convention this fall.

Winning a state in a primary awards you all or most of their delegates.

There are a total of 2,429 delegates up for grabs in the Republican primary season. A candidate needs least 1,215 to win the nomination.

Iowa only has 40 delegates, and they are awarded proportionally. The winner of the Iowa caucus is the candidate whose vote share earns them the highest proportion of state delegates.

Brandon Livesay
Reporting from Des Moines, Iowa

I'm here in the enormous events centre in Des Moines where we are preparing for caucuses to begin across the state.

I just took a stroll around and saw mainly journalists and event staff, but tucked away in one corner of the building is the hall where Donald Trump will hold a watch party.

In the distance I spotted four ladies wearing sequined red jackets that said Trump in giant letters across the backs.

And outside the hall there are security guards and metal detectors, as well as a few police officers. Trump's not here yet, but the former president's presence is already being felt.

It's still a couple of hours away from the main event, so in the meantime let's take a look at a few questions readers have sent in.

I've lined up some of the political experts on our team to answer them, so stay tuned.

Kayla Epstein
US reporter

Image source, Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

A parade of conservative politicians have arrived at one of Trump's final events before the caucuses, NBC News reports., external

Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Byron Donalds, Ronny Jackson, Andrew Clyde, and more strode into a venue in Fort Dodge, Iowa to fire up voters.

Kari Lake, who lost her race for Arizona governor in 2022 after boosting Trump's election conspiracy theories and is now running for the US Senate, was also on hand to speak.

"This is our time to speak out, and you guys get to speak out tonight, literally, when you guys go and caucus," she said.

It's just past 16:00 CT (22:00 GMT) in Iowa, which means only three hours to go before the start of the highly anticipated caucuses.

Even though the streets in Des Moines were quieter than usual this morning as temperatures hovered around -24C (-11F), Iowans speaking to our correspondents were steadfast that the icy conditions would not deter Republicans from attending the caucuses.

• "Slow and steady for Haley": As the day progresses, Haley's camp has kept expectations low by saying they only anticipated a "strong" result
• Donald Trump on the other hand, is counting on a big win and urges his supporters to make it happen, no matter the cost: “You can’t sit home,” Trump said. "If you’re sick as a dog, you say 'darling, I gotta make it'. Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it"
• At the same time Ron DeSantis thinks he can come out of this as the clear alternative to Trump. “We’re the only ones that have strong support amongst bed-rock Republican conservative voters," DeSantis said earlier today
• Vivek Ramaswamy, who's polling fourth, took selfies with supporters on Monday morning, telling them that if he won Iowa he would be the next president

So when will we know who was right? Well that's a bit of a tricky question. It might be later tonight local time or it could stretch into the early hours of tomorrow morning.

Mike Wendling
Reporting from Davenport

Despite the weather the show must go on – the gun show that is.

Over the weekend I visited the Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds here in Davenport, where one of the exhibition halls was given over to weaponry of all shapes and calibres.

But guns were not the only things on sale. One table was staffed by a man wearing a Vivek Ramaswamy T-shirt – but he said one of his best-selling items was a $7 Trump 2024 flag.

“I’m a Trump fan,” he told me, “but I’d like Vivek to be vice president.”

Another voter quietly told me had been supporter of Chris Christie, who dropped out of the race, and while he was still undecided, he’d definitely be caucusing – but just as definitely would not be backing Donald Trump.

“It’s an unpopular opinion so I don’t want to be too loud about it around here,” he told me – and declined to give his name.

Karl Leslein, who was selling raffle tickets on behalf of the Iowa Wild Turkey Federation, said he trusts Donald Trump more than any other candidate.

“As Republicans we’re used to people saying things to get elected. Then they get to Washington and they change. Trump’s not like that,” he said.

But others weren’t so chatty – and some professed no interest in caucuses at all. One growled: “I came here for guns, not politics.”

Brandon Livesay
Reporting from Des Moines, Iowa

I'm here at the Iowa caucuses events centre in Des Moines, and we've found what appears to be a Diet Coke stash for Donald Trump's watch party.

His love for Diet Coke was first reported by US media during the start of his presidency, with claims he would throw back up to 12 cans a day.

A colleague of mine spotted a sign on a crate, saying these 150 cans are for the Trump rally later tonight. So keep your hands off.

Trump's results watch party will be held about 50m away from where we've set up for the day.

The actual centre is a massive space with multiple halls and ballrooms. It usually hosts ice hockey and basketball games. And there's also some signs up for upcoming shows by comedians Katt Williams and Tom Segura.

But today, it's a buzzing hive of journalists, who occasionally bundle themselves up in giant coats and head outside to film a quick TV segment surrounded by snow and ice.

Kayla Epstein
Senior reporter

The honest answer is, we don't have an exact estimate for what time a winner will be declared in the Iowa caucuses.

We know when they officially start: 19:00 CT, or 20:00 ET/01:00 GMT.

There will be over 1,600 caucus sites across Iowa's 99 counties, and all will be reporting the results of their vote to the state's Republican Party officials as quickly as possible. But the count will still take time.

It's entirely possible we could know the winner by tonight, but it's also possible we may have to wait a bit.

The Iowa Republican Party has created a results website, external, and you're welcome to join us in obsessively refreshing it all night.

Brandon Livesay
Reporting from Des Moines, Iowa

Image source, Supplied

I spoke to Joe Van Ginkel while he was ploughing snow from his car park. It was the second blizzard of the week to hit Madison County, which lies to the southwest of the capitol of Des Moines.

Joe is the chair of the county's Republican party and has been since 2001, and he said his vote will be for Donald Trump.

"I'm pretty sure Trump's going to win 'cause everybody, most of the people, I talk to are for him," he says.

"I think there's a lot of reasons. He did a good job when he was in there as president."

Joe said he watched most of the Republican debates but "none of them swayed me".

But he did say his wife would probably vote for Nikki Haley, saying she hasn't agreed with some of Trump's "remarks".

Holly Honderich
Reporting from Des Moines

Image source, Reuters

The Haley campaign has seemed to hedge their bets in Iowa from the start, even after a promising weekend poll showing her in second place.

But on Monday, Haley's campaign kept expectations low by saying they only anticipated a "strong" result. And hours before voting begins, her team is doubling down on that rhetoric.

“For Nikki, it’s slow and steady,” her campaign says - far from promising a knock-out result.

But they're also quick to note how far she has come, from a seriously underestimated underdog to a real contender.

"She’s very used to being underestimated and being counted out and here we are, no one thought we’d be here," campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas told me. "Just watch her."

UK political figure and GB News presenter Nigel Farage has stopped by Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign this morning.

The former Brexit Party leader interviewed Ramaswamy during a campaign visit to Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, Iowa.

Ramaswamy has been courting media appearances since the start of his presidential bid and also has his own campaign podcast.

Asked by Farage, who has long been an outspoken supporter of Donald Trump, about an argument with the former president over the last few days, Ramaswamy said he loved Trump and thought he was an excellent president.

He emphasised, however, that there were two "America First" candidates in this race.

Image source, Reuters

Gary O'Donoghue
Washington Correspondent reporting from Iowa

"I think he’d be a little bemused by what's going on right now," Liz Hanson tells me as we trudge through the snow outside John Wayne's birth place in Winterset, Iowa.

Hanson is the general manager of the John Wayne Birthplace Museum, which contains the childhood home of America's best-known cowboy.

Wayne, real name Marion Robert Morrison, was a lifelong Republican with some troubling views on race. He was also a close friend of Ronald Reagan, who came here during his re-election campaign in 1984.

Wayne may have been used to the blistering heat of the Arizona desert, but Iowans tonight will be battling temperatures of up to -30C (-22F).

"if you can get dug out, you'll get out," says Hanson of her state's voters. "Iowans are a hardy bunch.”

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from Des Moines

The Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis campaigns and their political action committees (which raise and spend money to elect and defeat candidates) have altogether spent nearly $90m (£70m) on ads in Iowa.

Of these, Haley’s campaign and the pro-Haley Stand 4 America Fund PAC have spent the most, totalling about $36m. The DeSantis campaign and various affiliated PACs follow closely behind with about $35m spent.

Donald Trump - the distant front-runner in the race - his campaign and the MAGA Inc PAC have spent far less, totalling about $18m.

The ads have varied in tone, ranging from discussions of high-profile endorsements and quotes from supporters to ferocious - and colourfully worded - attack ads.

A recent wave of pro-Haley campaign ads, for example, refers to the DeSantis campaign as a “dumpster fire”. Another referred to him as a Trump “suck up”.

In recent weeks, the Trump campaign and its allies have taken aim at Haley, with one ad attacking her tax record and another comparing her border policies to Biden's.

On Sunday, the candidates and their supporters began wrapping up their final pitches in the race to become the presidential nominee. Here are some of the highlights from those final bids:

Holly Honderich
Reporting from Des Moines

Image source, Getty Images

I spent this past week following Nikki Haley’s campaign across the state as she made her final sprint into voting.

At every single speech, her final pitch was the same “I defeat Biden” - something, she says, no other Republican candidate can do.

And according to some early polls, she’s not wrong.

A Wall Street Journal survey from late last year showed her 17 points up from the Democrat. Trump and Biden were neck-and-neck.

“We don’t want to go through another nail-biter of an election,” Haley told voters this week.

But to take on Biden, Haley has to get through Trump first. How well she does later today will give us our first clue whether that's possible. More here.

Nomia Iqbal
North America Correspondent, in Des Moines

You'd be forgiven for thinking - are the Democrats caucusing too? Technically they are, but they won't be voting.

Instead the party will have a mail-in ballot. It will list incumbent President Joe Biden and his challengers, though they aren't the most competitive opponents.

John Frippman is a local teacher and Democrat, which means he's skipping the caucuses. He maintains, however, it's a great moment in the cycle that shows off middle America and "gives a good representation of what we are".

Even though his party isn't in focus today, Frippman said he's watching the Republican results and is privvy to some unofficial polling.

“We do a straw poll amongst students and that’s a good indicator of where the parents will go," he said. "So when it comes to Republicans they are leaning towards Trump. Now whether I want to see that happen that’s a totally different thing!”

Matt Murphy
US reporter

Image source, Reuters

Donald Trump has consistently posted big leads over his nearest rivals in Iowa.

The most recent poll of Iowans who were likely to caucus had Trump at 48%, ahead of Nikki Haley with 20% and Ron DeSantis with 16%.

But Trump's lead in Iowa is smaller than it is nationally, a national Sunday poll by CBS News, external had Trump at 69%.

It suggests at least some voters in Iowa could be looking for an alternative to the controversial former president.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former adviser to the Iowa Republican Party, told BBC News that while Trump is virtually guaranteed to come in first place, even a narrower than expected loss to Trump would help the other candidates "stay alive".

It could indicate to other US states whether or not there is an alternative to Trump.

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from Des Moines

Good morning from Iowa, with less than 12 hours to go until the caucuses - the first real world test of the Republican candidates.

It's so far quiet on the streets of Des Moines. I just took an ill-advised morning stroll around downtown Des Moines. There were very few people out, and if it weren't for the packs of roving journalists filming, one would not know that there's an important political event taking place here today.

It's also cold. Extremely cold. This morning, the temperature was -22C (-7.6F) but with the wind factored in it feels like -31C (-23.8F). Icicles quickly formed on my eyelashes. The exposed skin of my hand stung.

One thing we'll be watching is whether people still turn out to caucus later, despite the weather.

Over the last six days, I've been asking Iowans whether they think turnout will suffer as a result of the cold. Almost every person has downplayed the impact it will have.

"People who are interested in this whole thing will go," a man scraping ice off his car just told me. "It's really not that bad."

We will find out later whether he is right.

Kayla Epstein
Senior reporter

Image source, Getty Images

We've heard Trump telling his supporters to go and vote even if they risk getting deathly ill, but what are the other candidates saying in the final hours before the caucuses begin?

Nikki Haley stopped by a diner this morning to tell supporters that "today's the day we make history".

"We tune out the noise of the media, we tune out the noise of the politicians, and we raise the voices of Americans that say we want a better day, we’re going to make it happen," she said, according to NBC News.

Vivek Ramaswamy, who's polling fourth, took selfies with supporters on Monday morning. He promised voters, “If I win Iowa, I’m your next president," NBC News reported.

Image source, Getty Images

Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis was on CNN this morning, predicting he would emerge as the clearest alternative to Trump.

“We’re the only ones that have strong support amongst bed-rock Republican conservative voters, and to win a Republican nomination, you have got to be able to do that," he told them. "I think Iowa will show that very clearly."