Difficult to say for sure what caused the plane crashpublished at 12:44 Greenwich Mean Time 24 January
Pavel Aksenov
BBC Russian defence correspondent
Russian Telegram channels claim that the IL-76 was shot down by Ukrainian air defence systems. This theory could be confirmed by a video showing the missile trace or the actual moment of the aircraft being hit.
However, we haven't seen such a video, and based on the available footage, it's difficult to say for sure what caused the plane crash.
We can see the aircraft descending towards the ground. At some point, a large fragment detaches from it, and presumably afterwards, flames erupt around the left wing.
This cannot be considered as conclusive evidence that the plane was shot down, nor does it disprove this version.
The crash site is located about 50 km from the Ukrainian border, potentially allowing Ukraine to use certain medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems.
For example, the Patriot SAM could have potentially been used. The IRIS-T SLM, which is known to be in Ukraine’s arsenal, has a range of 40k and is unlikely to reach such a distance.
If Ukraine, as claimed by some in Russia, used the Patriot SAM, then the range of its PAC 2 missile family is 160 km. On the one hand, with this range, there is no need to position the complex near the border, risking exposure to Russian drones or artillery strikes.
On the other hand, its value in defending strategically important objects is significant. It's not clear whether Ukraine would risk using such crucial weaponry to shoot down an aircraft when they could use them against Russian "Kinzhal" missiles instead.
In the discussions about supplying Ukraine with Western weapons, particularly ground-to-ground missiles, concerns were expressed in the United States that Kyiv might use them against targets on Russian territory. However, officially no such restrictions have been placed.