Midlands battle lines drawn in In/Out EU debate

Bill Cash, Conservative MP for Stone, supports Conservatives for Britain

It could hardly be more clear-cut.

A black and white issue. In or out? Stick or twist. A straightforward "yes" or "no". Or rather, "remain" or "leave", after that tactical readjustment of the question itself.

If it is to be the latter, it would certainly be a long goodbye.

At least two years, probably more, would have to pass between a vote to "leave" and the negotiated exit.

Indeed, there is every sign that the severance arrangements would be even harder to broker than the terms David Cameron is struggling to negotiate for staying in - and we may not know what deal he comes back with until the year after next.

Equally, some observers think it could be early next year.

They reckon that the first European Council of 2016 could be the moment when the prime minister decides he cannot improve on the terms already on offer so he may as well cut his losses and make his move.

'Real debate'

The UKIP leader Nigel Farage told me recently he thought the referendum could be as early as next March.

That simple monochrome picture acquires so many more shades and nuances when you factor in the vagaries of the terms and the timing.

And then you have to take account of the internal differences within and between our various business, political and social groupings.

Nigel Farage also told me there was now "a real debate" among Midlands business leaders he had been talking to.

They have traditionally been seen as broadly supportive of Britain's place within the EU, but a poll commissioned by the Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce earlier this year indicates business opinion was more finely balanced than you might think.

The Chamber's Business Barometer reported that 47% of firms thought staying in the EU with a power transfer to the UK would be positive for the region, while the remaining 53% thought withdrawing from the EU would have a negative impact here.

David Cameron has said it was unlikely his renegotiations would satisfy Eurosceptic Shropshire North MP Owen Paterson

Renowned Eurosceptics, headed by the former cabinet minister and Conservative MP for Shropshire North Owen Paterson and the indefatigable Bill Cash, Conservative MP for Stone, support Conservatives for Britain.

David Cameron said last week it was unlikely any renegotiation he could come back with would satisfy the likes of them.

They, along with Business for Britain and some UKIP supporters, including their only MP Douglas Carswell, are linking up with the Vote Leave campaign.

It is also backed by Labour's anti-EU group called Labour Leave. But others in UKIP, including Mr Farage himself, are backing the rival Leave.EU, founded by the UKIP donor Arron Banks.

'Leap in the dark'

On the other side of the argument, Britain Stronger in Europe is headed by the former boss of Marks and Spencer Lord (Stuart) Rose, who is leading the case for remaining in the EU, assisted by Lady {Karren} Brady, late of this parish.

At its launch event, he described a British exit, or Brexit, as "a leap in the dark, a risk which was not worth taking".

Some observers are already detecting signs that this campaign may be about to repeat the mistakes of Better Together during the run-up to the Scottish Referendum by placing too much emphasis on "scaremongering" about the consequences of leaving and not enough on the benefits of staying where we are.

But unlike the Scottish Referendum, the ambiguities surrounding the renegotiated terms allow ministers much more wriggle room than they had then.

Lord Rose is leading the group Britain Stronger in Europe

The Business Secretary and Bromsgrove MP Sajid Javid certainly enjoyed his opportunity to flex his Euro-sceptic muscles when he talked about "standing up to Brussels" during his recent party conference speech.

The biggest casualty in all this could well be the objective evidence.

I remember wasting three weeks of my life, and that of a BBC researcher, in an unavailing attempt to establish whether the Midlands was a net beneficiary of EU membership or not, setting incoming European funding and the wider benefits of the internal market against our share of the UK's outgoing EU budget contributions.

Answer came there none. It all depended on how you interpreted any number of statistical variables.

Heat and light

Lord Rose says the ratio of incoming to outgoing is in real terms about 10 to one in the UK's favour.

Nigel Farage accuses him of "inverting the truth". We can see already how detailed analysis is likely to be drowned out by overblown claims and counterclaims, with reliable information playing second fiddle to rhetoric, emotion and symbolism.

In the hope of generating light as well as heat, our BBC Black Country Political Reporter Rob Mayor has been gauging opinions among in the local business community.

We'll see his report in this week's Sunday Politics Midlands, when I'll be taking up these questions with the Conservative MP for Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris, who is now the Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Europe Minister David Liddington; and to the Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips, whose party has divisions of its own to contend with on this European issue.

We're back in our usual slot this weekend: 11:00 on BBC One Midlands this Sunday 18 October 2015.