Mid Bedfordshire by-election: Nominations open - analysis

Nadine Dorries announced she was standing down in June, but did not hand in her notice until August

Nominations have opened for the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, marking the official start of the campaign.

The by-election has been called for 19 October after Conservative MP Nadine Dorries, who had a majority of 24,664 at the last general election, said she would vacate her seat.

The former culture secretary resigned from the Commons in August, more than two months after pledging to go "with immediate effect".

Anyone who wants to stand as a candidate has until 16:00 BST on 22 September to hand in their nomination papers and a deposit of £500.

It was 98 days ago that Ms Dorries said she was resigning, but she waited another 81 days before doing so, much to the frustration of many local people.

When she did go she didn't go quietly, accusing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of "abandoning the fundamental principles of Conservatism".

It has meant that for the past three months there has been an unofficial election campaign going on in Mid Bedfordshire.

Now it gets real.

Welcome to Mid Bedfordshire

Dissected by the M1, the seat takes in the towns of Ampthill, Flitwick and Shefford.

It is a typical Home Counties constituency - rural, with a high percentage of home owners (76%) and above average employment. It has been Conservative for more than 90 years.

In the grand scheme of things, by-elections are not that important - it's just one seat out of 650 being contested.

The result will not really change the numbers in the House of Commons and normally the result is forgotten pretty quickly.

But they do set the political mood for some time afterwards, and as we go into a general election year, all the parties want to emerge from Mid Bedfordshire on a high.

• The candidates lining up for Mid Beds by-election

The Conservatives, notably behind in the national opinion polls and embarrassed by the departure of their MP, want to hold on to the seat with a decent majority.

It would give MPs and activists hope that they can still win the general election.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats want to show that they can make in-roads into Tory territory. A win here or a narrow loss would be a sign that the main opposition parties are picking up new support.

The Greens did very well in this year's local elections in various parts of East Anglia.

They are the largest party on nearby East Hertfordshire Council and a good result will show that they are firmly established in traditional Conservative territory.

Independent candidates are not often given much attention in by-elections, but they are currently in charge at Central Bedfordshire Council, a sign perhaps that voters are looking for something different from the main parties.

While Reform, the successor to UKIP, believes it is winning round disillusioned Conservative supporters and could do well in a place like Mid Beds.

Key issues

By-elections are always fought in the media spotlight. One ill-judged remark can quickly become a major, career-ending gaffe.

A poorly explained policy can turn into a major controversy. Party managers will spend the next month on tenterhooks.

From the unofficial campaign it seems that the main issues on voters' minds are the cost of living, GP and dentist shortages and the building of new homes.

After the last incumbent, there is also a desire among many for a more visible local MP.

This is the 63rd safest seat in the country. No party has ever overturned such a high majority in a by-election.

Yet both Labour and the Liberal Democrats believe they can win, while the Conservatives are hoping that the two parties will split the opposition vote, making it easier for them to hold on.

There is another by-election taking place on 19 October in Tamworth. It is another Conservative seat - double pressure for the prime minister.

Both elections will help set the political mood for the autumn, but given its controversial predecessor and her massive majority, it will be Mid Bedfordshire which politicians and pundits will be watching most closely.