Local elections: Why Tory-Labour battles could leave telling hints

Voters across Coventry and Warwickshire will head to the polls on 2 May

The "national mood" is a theme that's come up more often than usual ahead of this week's local elections in Coventry and Warwickshire.

In the probable year of a general election, councillors are looking at national opinion polls and pondering what they signal about their political fortunes locally.

Some will reassure themselves that voting in local elections doesn't precisely mirror what happens in general elections.

And they're right. Local candidates and issues closer to home always sway some minds.

But there are some eye-catching Labour-Tory contests in Warwickshire that could tell us more about the bigger picture than others.

In Nuneaton and Bedworth, all 38 seats on the Conservative-run council are up for election this year.

The towns used to be Labour strongholds, but that all changed in 2021, when the Conservatives won a thumping majority to take control of the local authority.

The Greens say they've been a more effective opposition than Labour since then.

This year, though, Labour has its sights set on winning back the council - and electoral history gives the party reasons to be confident.

The Conservatives currently hold the most seats with 27 following the last local elections in 2022

The parliamentary constituency of Nuneaton has historically been considered a bellwether, meaning it usually votes for the winning party in general elections.

Nuneaton has "different types of voters who would make up a constituency that broadly reflects where public opinion is in the rest of the country", says Patrick English, YouGov's director of political analytics.

A mostly white British population, with an average age of 40 and middle-ranking earnings by national standards, means Nuneaton is broadly representative of the country as a whole.

It's "a Middle England microcosm", Mr English says.

"If you're carrying this kind of area, then you're likely convincing many other types of voters."

He said Rugby, which has a similar voting population, would fall into the same category.

And as it happens, there are local elections there too this week.

With a third of seats up for grabs on Rugby Borough Council, Labour and the Conservatives are vying for overall control.

But the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK are fielding plenty of candidates, as they bid to make their presence felt on the electoral map.

'Deep trouble'

So what hints could these results in Warwickshire give us about the coming general election?

"If Labour are winning seats like this in Warwickshire, and genuinely doing well in these suburban, outer urban areas in the county, that tells us the Conservatives are in deep, deep trouble," Mr English said.

He added that if Labour does win the next general election, the scale of the party's majority and therefore what kind of government we could have "is going to be completely determined by seats like this in Warwickshire".

In Coventry, the electoral situation is more predictable.

Conservative Marcus Jones has represented the Nuneaton parliamentary constituency since 2010

Labour has been in control of the council since 2010, and that's not expected to change in these local elections. The number of Tory seats has been stagnant in recent years.

But Coventry has interesting implications for the West Midlands mayoral election.

The city was the area with the most marginal voting gap between the top two candidates in the last mayoral election in 2021.

Finally, there's the contest to be the next police and crime commissioner (PCC) for Warwickshire.

It's certainly been a more low-key affair, so turnout could be the metric to keep an eye on.

Usually, voter turnout doesn't nudge much above 30%, which has fuelled calls for the PCC roles nationally to be scrapped.

With some mayors keen to take on the powers of PCCs, diminishing voter engagement with these elections could bolster their arguments.