England local elections 2023: The view in the North West

The local elections will provide an indicator of how individuals and businesses - including these traders in Bolton - feel amid rising costs

The local elections on Thursday 4 May are big both in terms of size and significance.

Thirty-two out of 34 councils in the North West are being contested, with 17 being all-out elections, with every seat up for grabs rather than only one third. This means control of several local authorities could change hands, altering the face of politics in our region.

Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool Jon Tonge said: "Only a fool would make definite predictions about what's going to happen in these local elections.

"There's a lot of uncertainty associated with them but these are probably the biggest set of local elections we've seen in the North West in terms of the size and number of council seats being contested."

But they're also significant nationally. With a general election 18 months away, they'll be a real indication of how voters are feeling.

Of the 32 councils being contested, Labour are defending 18 whole the Conservatives are battling to stay in control of the four they run in Lancashire.

Ten are under no overall control - meaning there's either a minority administration or a coalition.

Where should we keep an eye on?

Labour need to do well and will hope to take some of those 'under no overall control' local authorities like Bolton, Burnley, Hyndburn, West Lancashire, Wirral, Cheshire West and Chester, and South Ribble.

If they can make gains here, it would help leader Sir Keir Starmer feel more confident about getting his hands on the keys to Number 10 next autumn.

"Labour needs to take back overall control of about five councils," Prof Tonge says.

"That really is the benchmark that they are making adequate progress, that they can be confident at the next general election."

Which party will get the thumbs-up in Preston?

The Conservatives should be confident of holding on to Wyre, Fylde and Ribble Valley, but there could be a real battle for Pendle.

The Tories are defending six of their 17 seats there and Labour party bosses have eyes on them.

Should the Conservatives hold on in Pendle, it will give Rishi Sunak real confidence that his party still has a real chance at the general election.

"If the Conservatives can hold Pendle, then Rishi Sunak will be cock-a-hoop," Prof Tonge explained, "because that's a sign that Labour cannot inflict damage upon the Conservatives."

He thinks the Tories will also be watching their overall level of seats in councils which are having big all-out contests.

"Like in Bolton, where you have a Conservative minority administration running the council, can the Tories stay in charge albeit under no overall control?"

While Liverpool gears up for Eurovision, the Labour-run council faces its own contest

In Stockport, it looks like being a straight battle between the Liberal Democrats - who run a minority administration - and Labour. The town represents the Lib Dems' best chance of taking full control of a council, but to do that they would need to win five seats.

The smaller parties are also significant. In Lancaster, the Greens want to become the largest party.

Across the North West, about one in 10 council seats are held by independents.

Prof Tonge said the growth of these parties had been a feature in recent years, adding: "These smaller parties really matter.

"They hold the balance of power on councils like Bolton. In other words, their numbers on the council are bigger than the difference between the Conservative and Labour parties."

And then there's Liverpool. While the city gears up for Eurovision, the Labour-run council faces a contest of its own.

The party has been in control since 2010, and that's not likely to change.

However, it's an all-out election, the council's getting smaller, there are boundary changes, defections from Labour - and government commissioners are still running the city.

There could be as many twists and turns as a Bucks Fizz dance routine.

The national picture

Apart from those holding all-out elections, the last time these seats were fought over was in 2019.

Nationally the Conservatives did not do well four years ago. Labour also fared poorly, though, while the Liberal Democrats gained 704 seats.

Since then all three major parties have new leaders so these elections are an important barometer, they will set the agenda for the coming year.

For Labour it's about making gains, for the Conservatives it's about holding on to what they have.

Local elections will also be held in Chester on 4 May

"The 4th of May will see a real poll," says Prof Tonge, "a true litmus test of public opinion."

Both of the main parties will be in the North West in the autumn for their respective party conferences and their leaders will hope momentum will be behind them.

Why do we need these elections?

Well, they matter. Local councils are responsible for many public services, from potholes to planning, bins to burials.

Our councils provide education and social services, libraries and social housing.

The polls open on Thursday 4 May, but all results in the North West might not be known until later on Friday.

And finally do not forget voters in England must show photo ID to vote in person.