Local elections: What impact will EU nationals have in London?

There are about 1.1 million EU nationals living in London and this week's local elections will be the first time they are able to vote since the Brexit referendum. But can they make a difference?

"This election might be the last time we're allowed to vote," says Maike Bohn, spokeswoman for 'the 3 million', the main campaign group for EU nationals living in the UK.

Since EU citizens' rights - including the right to vote - are by no means guaranteed, the group has been trying to galvanize EU nationals to take part in the elections.

But Ms Bohn is clear: "We don't support an individual party".

Instead, the group is encouraging people to back those candidates who offer EU citizens the greatest support with the bureaucratic tasks they are likely to face in the run-up to Brexit, such as applying for 'UK settled status'.

But Tony Travers, local government expert at the London School of Economics, says Brexit is "bound to weigh" on the minds of EU citizens as they decide how to vote.

• Do voters care more about bins than Brexit?

• How many EU nationals live in the UK?

• How London boroughs voted in the Brexit referendum

• Will the Conservatives suffer?

French national Emma Guesbaya, who lives in Lambeth, and Gianluca Avagnina, an Italian citizen who lives in Stoke Newington, agree.

Mr Avagnina says for him this election is "purely about sending a message against Brexit".

While Ms Guesbaya says she could not vote for a party that "hasn't spoken out against Brexit".

She says she has considered local issues but Brexit has been her "main concern".

Emma Guesbaya and Hedwig Hegtermans are determined to send a message against Brexit

Swedish national Åsa Svensson, who lives in Tower Hamlets, describes this election as the "one chance to have my voice heard at the ballot box".

Politicians belonging to a party which has "not spoken out in support of our [the EU] community, won't get my vote," the freelance journalist adds.

Where do the main parties stand on Brexit?

• The Conservatives as the governing party are charged with delivering Brexit.

• Labour are pro-Brexit but have repeatedly called for Britain to remain in the UK-EU customs union.

• The Liberal Democrats believe Britain is better off in the EU and are campaigning for a second referendum to achieve an "exit from Brexit".

• The Green Party also backs a second referendum on the final deal to avoid what it calls the "national calamity of Brexit".

• UKIP has campaigned for Britain's exit from the EU since its inception.

So where could the EU vote make a difference?

There is no doubt the way EU nationals will decide to vote will have an impact in areas which are marginal, voted remain and have a large EU-born population, Mr Travers says.

At Labour-led Hammersmith & Fulham as well as Tory-led authorities Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Barnet and Wandsworth, the EU vote could lead to considerable gains for Labour, he says.

At Tory-led Hillingdon Council, on the other hand, where 56% voted leave and EU nationals make up just 8% of the population (compared to 19% in Hammersmith & Fulham and 18% in Westminster), the lack of an EU vote is likely to mean gains for the Conservatives, Mr Travers believes.

There are marginal councils where the EU vote could potentially help the Liberal Democrats too, such as Richmond and Kingston, but the EU populations there are so small (7% and 11% respectively) that they are unlikely to cause considerable shifts, Mr Travers says.

However, it is difficult to predict to what degree EU nationals will turn out to vote.

Elizabeth Pop, from the charity Hope not Hate, who has been campaigning to get more EU nationals to vote, says many did not even know they were eligible to vote, while others have told her they would refuse to vote "because they feel unwelcome, unwanted or have been victims of hate crimes".

But Mr Travers says a lot of councils have made an effort to remind EU nationals of their eligibility to vote.

And while there is no polling evidence showing how EU nationals behave, Mr Travers says turn-out among that group is "probably going to be higher than in previous times".