Is Foster more fire-fighting than 'on fire'?

  • Published
First Minister Arlene FosterImage source, Reuters
Image caption,

Arlene Foster's survival instincts have been well tested but her authority has been under pressure for some time

"Welcome to my world," was Arlene Foster's response recently when asked off-mic about the actions of her solo-running colleagues both at Westminster and Stormont.

It is a world she once ruled with ease but, is now under pressure to hold together.

Four years ago, she was cheered by conference delegates - remember "Arlene's on fire"?

Now it is more often the case of Arlene putting out fires lit by those around her - be it Sammy Wilson and his mask-wearing issues or Edwin Poots and his view that Covid-19 was a bigger problem in nationalist areas.

More times than the first minster would like, she has fielded questions at executive news conferences about the behaviour of those in her own DUP bubble.

Not for the first time, it is an intervention by DUP MP Ian Paisley which is putting the party's leader on the back foot.

Image source, PA Media
Image caption,

Ian Paisley's call to use Article 16 in the Northern Ireland protocol to scrap the Irish Sea regulatory border is at odds with Mrs Foster's position.

His call on Thursday to use Article 16 in the Northern Ireland protocol to scrap the Irish Sea regulatory border is at odds with Mrs Foster's position.

She would like to see the protocol ditched, but also has been more pragmatic, taking about the "challenges and opportunities" of the current arrangements.

Ian Paisley's call may be ignored by the decision makers, but will be heard by some of the party faithful still smarting over the new arrangements.

Maybe they were his real target audience all along.

Arlene Foster's survival instincts have been well-tested.

She promised to learn from her mistakes after the RHI Inquiry.

And she has been praised in the past for rising above party politics in her handling of the pandemic.

But at times it feels like her party is now trapped in a political straight jacket - unable to influence the executive as it would like and, more importantly, unable to prevent the Irish Sea border which, in Sammy Wilson words, diminishes unionism.

But Arlene Foster's authority has been under pressure long before the pandemic and the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Last year, she was on the wrong end of the largest DUP rebellion at Stormont when 11 DUP MLAs ignored her advice and sided instead with a former DUP special advisor.

Richard Bullick warned the Executive Committee (Functions) Bill was contrary to DUP policy and constitutionally "dangerous" as it gave individual ministers too much power and weakened the ability of the party to block any damaging decisions.

His intervention unnerved many DUP MLAs who then ignored the party whip and actively abstained by voting in both lobbies.

It was not a good look for Arlene Foster's leadership.

Those wounds could be more damaging and take longer to heal than any divisions with some of her Westminster MPs.

Her failure to take action against some of the party big-hitters who have stepped out of line has also weakened her authority.

There will come a time when Arlene Foster will be replaced as DUP leader, but when? And will it be at a time of her choosing?

She will lead the party through this year's Northern Ireland Centenary Celebrations, but will she still be in charge when her party faces its next big electoral test?

By her own admission, she has made mistakes as leader, and as a consequence, has fed those within her party who would like to see her removed.

They might just keep coming back for more.