Will Boris Johnson's group hug delay referendum question?

Nicola Sturgeon's requests for a referendum agreement have so far been stonewalled by Downing Street

Now that the pandemic recovery allows, Boris Johnson is planning a big group hug.

He will be throwing his arms around Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales in the hope of bringing the disunited family closer together.

It is being framed around Covid-19 recovery so expect lots of zoom talk around vaccination roll out and pandemic recovery.

Don't expect much discussion around the other "r" word which is dominating debates everywhere else.

It is as one Derry GP living in Edinburgh told us this week not just the "elephant in the room but it is the room".

'When not if'

The prospect of another independence referendum in Scotland inched closer this week.

It wasn't the question on the ballot paper but it was clearly the question on the minds of many voters.

As a result, the numbers in the Scottish Parliament are now stacked firmly in favour of independence but the vote also shows the divide in the country is too close to call.

In Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon's mind it is now a question of when and not if a referendum will take place.

In Boris Johnson's mind it is a question of if and not when that vote will happen.

Refocusing on Covid-19 recovery will allow both sides time to work out their strategies.

Also taking stock are those now worried about the future of the UK.

'Price to pay'

As an Orangeman and Labour party councillor in Airdrie, Ian McNeil ticks that box.

"We had, what we were told was a once-in-a-generation vote and we won it and we don't need another one", he told us sitting in his Orange hall which is home to 650 members.

He dismissed the SNP as a "grievance" party who like to "moan" about everything British but are happy to take "whatever help they can get out of London".

"The problem for us is that the pro-union vote is split three ways between Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems, whereas the SNP get the independent vote, so their voice always looks stronger," he said.

• Sturgeon tells PM referendum is 'when - not if'

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He also pointed to the SNP's 14 years in government adding "many young voters who are 16 only know what it is like to live under an SNP-led government and that gives them a huge advantage".

On the last referendum, Ian McNeil says "we won it fairly and squarely"

Ian, whose great-grandparents are from Belfast and who returns to Northern Ireland every year for the Twelfth, believes the new Irish Sea border flags up what could be in store for Scots living under independence.

"We just won't be able to knock on the door in Brussels and say, 'Let us in again'," he said.

"There will be a price to pay and like Northern Ireland we will end up with a hard border with England and the rest of the UK, nobody here wants that."

Brexit 'gamechanger'

Dr Nora Murray-Cavanagh, from Derry but now living in Edinburgh, disagrees.

Brexit for her was the gamechanger.

"Many of my friends and patients voted against independence the last time but are firmly up for voting yes and that is all because of Brexit, the question will be very different the next time," she said.

Dr Nora Murray-Cavanagh says many of her friends are now more willing to vote for an independent Scotland now than the last referendum

"The timing is delicate but there is a real momentum towards it again.

"First time round people felt they couldn't take that step over the line, feeling that borders were not great idea but guess what, Brexit changed all that."

But she dismissed any notion that an independent Scotland could quickly lead to a united Ireland.

"You can't compare, the backgrounds are completely different with the Troubles and Good Friday Agreement, we are nowhere near that conversation at home," she said.

Asked if she envisaged in her lifetime leaving an independent Scotland to travel home to a united Ireland she smiled: "That is the one million euro question."

That is also the question the SNP avoid at all costs.

"Whatever you don't mention Northern Ireland or a border poll" was the advice from an SNP insider when asking to interview one of their politicians.

They have their "own battleground here" and they don't need to look for another one.

'It will happen'

We put that theory to the test with the Coleraine-born SNP MP Tommy Sheppard and true to form, he sidestepped the question opting instead to talk about his party's best ever election result and the timing of another independence referendum.

"It will happen. It is just a matter of when and while her (Nicola Sturgeon's) opponents tell us we need to deal with the pandemic and economic recovery first, that is the time to start and build a better Scotland," he said.

Coleraine-born SNP MP Tommy Sheppard says "we need the powers of a normal independent government to be able to rebuild Scotland" post-Covid

And timing is crucial now for his party leader.

She will have to balance the demands of the impatient independence voters and those who know playing the long game will be the difference in holding another referendum and winning that vote.

Nicola Sturgeon also knows the longer Boris Johnson remains in Downing Street the more the support for an independent Scotland will grow.

Playing a longer game is more likely to pay off.

Instead of getting together with Boris Johnson for a group hug this week, she will be keeping her social distance in the hope of increasing the political distance between Scotland and the rest of the UK.