Likely plotlines for the Donaldson DUP script

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Sir Jeffrey DonaldsonImage source, PACEMAKER
Image caption,

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson was beaten 19 votes to 17 in the leadership contest with Edwin Poots

For the second time in two months, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson had put his name forward for the DUP leadership but this time he was unopposed.

The process has been fast-tracked and, before the end of the month, Sir Jeffrey will become the DUPs fifth leader.

That is if all goes according to plan, and nothing about the DUP has been predictable or planned in the past seven weeks.

With that in mind, let's explore some potential plotlines safe in the knowledge they may never make it into the final script.

Fast forward to when Sir Jeffrey takes charge of the DUP.

Expect lots of talk of healing and bridge-building, but also some party reshuffling.

Sir Jeffrey has made it clear he wants to lead the party from Stormont as first minister.

But without a planned election before May next year, how might he make that move from Westminster?

Co-option is the only option - he just needs a vacancy.

Could that gap open up in Fermanagh if, as expected, Arlene Foster calls time on her Stormont career? Or could we see another departure elsewhere to allow the new leader in?

Whatever the route, we know the final destination - the first minister's office.

That means Paul Givan is now effectively working out his notice in the dream job he only landed last week.

That is if he follows the order to resign.

Image source, PAcemaker
Image caption,

Paul Givan and Michelle O'Neill were confirmed as first and deputy first ministers on Thursday

If he does, he will go down in history as Northern Ireland's youngest and shortest-serving first minister so far.

Sitting on the same page as the shortest-serving political leader is his good friend Edwin Poots.

As for the other ministerial Poots appointees, expect some change but also some reaching out.

There are lots of questions to be answered.

Will Mr Poots be part of that bridge-building and keep his job as agriculture minister?

Will Paul Frew, as economy minister, be asked to step aside for a Sir Jeffrey loyalist?

Could we see a return to the executive for ex-Junior Minister Gordon Lyons?

As the only declared Sir Jeffrey supporter in the Poots executive team, Junior Minister Gary Middleton could survive the cull.

Media caption,

The seven questions Edwin Poots faced in 11 seconds

Michelle McIlveen may also have strengthened her grip as education minister, having lined up against Mr Poots in Thursday's vote.

But the reshuffling won't just be confined to the front bench at Stormont.

There will be a space to fill on the green benches at Westminster after the Donaldson departure.

A by-election in Lagan Valley throws up lots of interesting questions.

Who will stand for the DUP? Mr Poots or Mr Givan now that their Stormont careers appear to have peaked?

Could Mrs Foster abandon her plan to quit the party and seek a seat in the House of Commons?

Image source, PA Media
Image caption,

Could Edwin Poots swap Stormont for a Westminster election contest

She has already declared an interest in a move to Westminster and her popularity is on the rise.

A plotline too far, maybe.

But a by-election in the most divided DUP constituency in Northern Ireland will bring some challenges.

Lagan Valley is home to Team Poots and Team Donaldson.

The key players all share the same office building in Lisburn.

Defending a seat with such deep divisions will not be easy but it will put the respective calls for unity from both camps to the test.

Twists and turns

The growing challenge from the Alliance Party in Lagan Valley and Ulster Unionists under new management may help to focus DUP minds.

That is likely to be Sir Jeffrey's first big electoral test as leader but a more pressing challenge will be uniting a deeply fractured party.

He firstly needs to convince the 19 MLAs and MPs who rejected him in the leadership contest that he can heal the wounds and steer the party out of this crisis.

No doubt he has his script ready and will be hoping this plot has no more twists and turns.

But who really knows how this saga will end?

We may have to wait for the box set.