Northern Ireland economic growth 'among weakest in UK'

The NI economy grew by 1% in the third quarter of 2021, although the UK average was 1.3%

Northern Ireland's economic growth was among the weakest of the UK's regions in the final quarter of 2021, official data suggests.

Figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggest the Northern Ireland economy grew by 1% compared with the third quarter.

Average UK growth was 1.3%, with Wales and Scotland each growing by 1.6%.

There was a mixed picture in the England, with three regions growing more than NI and five performing worse.

The ONS cautions that regional data is more volatile than national estimates and so regional GDP needs to be carefully interpreted alongside economic trends both in the regions and in the UK.

Meanwhile ONS revisions to earlier data for England and Wales suggest some regions performed better than originally estimated.

In the final quarter of last year London was the fastest growing of all UK regions, with output expanding by 3.1% on the previous quarter.

When looking at annual growth, Northern Ireland was a mid-table performer.

The UK economy was on average 6.6% bigger in the final quarter of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020.

Five regions had growth above the UK level: these were London at 10.4%, the north-west of England at 8.3%, Wales at 8.2%, Scotland at 7.7% and the north-east of England at 7.5%.

All other regions grew below the UK average rates: in Northern Ireland it was 5.8%, while the furthest below the UK level was the south-east of England, with 2.3%.

Closely watched

Northern Ireland's economic data has been closely watched in light of the of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It is the post-Brexit trading arrangement which was agreed by the UK and EU.

It keeps Northern Ireland inside the EU's single market for goods, giving Northern Ireland manufacturers better access to the EU than companies in other parts of the UK.

But it also means there are checks and controls on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, leading to added cost and complexity for importing businesses.

Supporters of the protocol are looking for evidence that the arrangement has boosted, or at least protected the economy, while opponents seek to show the opposite.

The ONS revisions could have some significance in this debate.

For example, the original estimates for the third quarter of 2021 suggested that Northern Ireland had outperformed all English regions except London.

However, the revised data suggests Northern Ireland's growth of 1.2% in that quarter was on par with the north-east of England and slightly below both the north-west and Yorkshire and the Humber.

There is an alternative measurement of Northern Ireland's economy, the NI Composite Economic Index, which is produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

It estimates that Northern Ireland's economy grew by 1.5% in the third quarter of 2021 and by 1.2% in the fourth quarter.