Windsor Framework: Questions over deal await DUP leader on US trip

  • Published
The White House in WashingtonImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Stormont parties are travelling to the US this week for St Patrick's Day festivities

When travelling to the United States for a short stay, you have two choices.

Do what former Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis used to do and keep your body clock on Belfast time.

Manage through early morning gym sessions, and early to bed in the evening.

Jet lag, he said, was never a problem.

Or do what the rest of us do: reset our body clock to Washington time and battle through the jet lag.

But be it in Belfast or Washington this week for the St Patrick's Day festivities, we are all working to DUP time whether we like it or not.

Waiting for the party to deliver its verdict on the Windsor Framework, and then waiting on what that judgements means, for a return of Stormont.

Two calls for DUP

Are we likely to see a reset in power sharing in time for the Good Friday Agreement 25th anniversary next month?

That is the question which will loom large over the many political gatherings in Washington this week.

The man with the answer will be here, but don't expect him to give much away.

Image source, Pacemaker
Image caption,

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson announced the party had set up an eight-member panel to gauge opinion on the new deal

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has set a consultation process in motion led by former party leader Peter Robinson to canvass opinion on the Windsor Framework.

That will allow him to dodge the big question during his US trip.

Time and space are being afforded to the party to make the right call.

However, according to some DUP sources, we may end up with two calls: the party rejecting the Windsor Framework because it falls short of some of its well-flagged seven tests; but the party agreeing to return to Stormont at some point after listening to the many views it plans to canvass.

That would involve breaking the link between the revised protocol arrangements and the party's return to the institutions.

Some in the party might argue they were never formally linked at the outset as the seven tests were set seven months before the DUP collapsed the executive.

That scenario of rejecting the deal but resetting Stormont was supported in the weekend Lucid Talk poll.

It showed support among unionist voters for the DUP to say no to the new framework, but growing support for the party to return to Stormont.

Though they won't admit it, polls have played a part in DUP decision making in the past.

There is another big question which will also loom large in Washington this week and it is a question which will likely be answered come Friday.

Potential presidential visit?

Is President Biden going to visit Northern Ireland next month to join in the Good Friday Agreement anniversary celebrations?

The answer is likely to be yes, with 19 April being suggested as a possible date.

US officials have already been spotted in Northern Ireland preparing for the trip.

The formal invitation from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is also a big indicator.

If he does come, President Biden is likely to travel north during a wider visit to the Republic of Ireland and his ancestral roots in Mayo.

Expect confirmation later this week when he meets Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar in the White House.

Image source, Reuters
Image caption,

A possible date for US President Joe Biden's visit is 19 April

It was rumoured President Biden was hoping to address assembly members at a sitting session in Stormont - but only if it had been fully restored.

That seems unlikely as Sir Jeffrey has made it clear he is not working to that timeline.

That could leave us with the spectacle once more of marking a Good Friday Agreement milestone with the institutions it created in lockdown.

It didn't dampen the celebrations for the 20th anniversary and is unlikely to do so again, especially if the DUP jury is still out.

It's going to be a hectic run-in, beginning this week in Washington, and all our body clocks may need to be reset when it's over.

Declan Harvey and Tara Mills explore the text of the Good Friday Agreement - the deal which heralded the end of the Troubles in Northern Ireland.

They look at what the Agreement actually said and hear from some of the people who helped get the deal across the line.

Click here to listen to the full box set on BBC Sounds.