Covid: Casey's poverty warning difficult to ignore

Louise Casey has a reputation for getting things done.

That's why successive governments, including this one, have brought her into the fold - not to make them feel good, but to tell the truth about what needs to happen to achieve their aims.

That's why her warning today could be hard for the government to ignore.

Since the pandemic struck, the Treasury has racked up generationally massive bills to support businesses and families through the crisis.

But as we enter the grim challenge of the second wave, that support, while still huge, is dwindling.

For Dame Louise, that risks pulling out vital support for families at the very moment when it is needed most.

Her verdict is haunting. With millions more people facing tighter restrictions, her fear is that could mean real destitution for countless families.

The chancellor has promised where businesses are forced to close in areas under the strictest limits, the Treasury will pay two thirds of wages from 1 November, and workers could claim benefits if they need.

But Dame Louise warns the decision is like the government saying to people you can only afford two thirds of your rent, you can only afford two thirds of your food - and she suggests the country is heading for a time when families can't afford to put shoes on their children's feet.

She told me: "There's just this sense I think from Downing Street and from Westminster that people will make do. Well they weren't coping before Covid."

"We are looking at a period of destitution… I can't impress upon you enough that I think we are heading into an unprecedented period, we're already in it and it's going to get worse.

"And it needs a more cross-government, cross-society response.

"Do we want to go back to the days where people can't put shoes on their children's feet? This is what we are talking about.

"Are we actually asking people in places like Liverpool to go out and prostitute themselves so that actually they could put food on the table?

"I am not a dramatic person. I have been in Whitehall for over 20 years, I've worked in the voluntary sector. And this is unprecedented.

'Tory nerves'

"I remember the Thatcher era right through to now, and I have never worked in a situation where I'm so concerned about what's going to happen."

A Treasury spokesperson said the government's "priority since the start of this outbreak to protect as many jobs and incomes as possible - and that will continue as we go through the difficult months ahead".

But Labour said the chancellor must think again - and there are some Tory nerves about the level of support on offer too.

One minister predicted yesterday that the chancellor will end up either having to extend the promised support for a whole year, or to raise the level back to the original furlough - 80% of wages.

Don't forget many of the areas where pressure on incomes is most intense are the newly Tory areas that Downing Street wants to keep on side.

Dame Louise's strong sentiments may not be matched publicly by anyone in government for now. But a warning like this one may not be easy to ignore.