The impact of the SNP fallout is hard to predict
- Published
Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon were once close political allies
You would certainly be forgiven if you hadn't followed every tiny twist in the very long running dispute between Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon.
But it is more than a little local difficulty. And it is more than a falling out between old political friends who have become rivals.
It is a struggle between two of the most influential politicians in recent history, who have both had influence over events beyond Scotland.
And after so many wild twists already, the conclusion of this saga - and its impact on politics that affect the whole of the UK - is hard to predict.
Remember, the SNP is not just the totally dominant force in Scottish politics, but the third biggest party in Westminster - and Ms Sturgeon is one of the most powerful leaders in the UK.
It all began with allegations made in 2018 that Mr Salmond, the former first minister of Scotland, had harassed two female officials - claims that he has always denied and was subsequently cleared of in a criminal court.
Three years on and a botched government investigation, an arrest, a court case that ended without a conviction and two different inquiries looking at how the mess unfurled, have prompted accusations of conspiracy, lying and cover-up.
Taking away all of the hotly contested details, the core of this is simple.
Mr Salmond has accused Ms Sturgeon of lying, while the current first minister says it's his claims that are not true.
Despite all of their shared history, despite all of their joint ambition to lead Scotland to independence, they cannot both be right.
'It could all spill over'
Given the seriousness of the accusations being laid, neither of them - nor their supporters - are likely to rest until there is some resolution.
As one senior SNP figure told me, "it has to be brought to a conclusion or it could all spill over".
The dispute has already toxified the relationships between some parts of the SNP and the movement for independence.
While allies of Ms Sturgeon believe that she is likely to survive the storm, the mess has, at the least, cost the party its reputation for iron discipline that was envied by other politicians - at least for now.
And in the last few weeks, the strain has been felt, not just by the SNP, but by Scotland's institutions - the will he, won't he, over Mr Salmond giving public testimony as part of the inquiry, and the publish, then don't publish, over his evidence.
The pair ran for the leader and deputy leader roles together in 2004
One senior party figure close to Ms Sturgeon admitted it all "looks idiotic".
And one SNP MP is claiming the Crown Office "looks crooked".
It's led by the Lord Advocate, who is also Ms Sturgeon's top legal adviser.
The opposition parties in Edinburgh claim now that the entire credibility of the Scottish Parliament is at stake.
It still is hard to believe that after the decision to publish evidence from Mr Salmond was taken by the Scottish Parliament, the Crown Office raised what they described as "grave concerns", and the original document was removed and replaced with a revised version.
Whatever the rights and wrongs, it is very hard to imagine the Crown Prosecution Service taking a similar decision about a Westminster inquiry without a screaming outcry.
Being diplomatic, one senior Scottish politician described the saga, as "hardly our finest hour".
One supporter of Mr Salmond, Joanna Cherry MP - who was sacked from the party's front bench, but is also a well known lawyer - has publicly questioned what happened too, tweeting: "All democracies governed by the rule of law should have proper separation of powers - parliaments must be able to hold executives to account."
Until now, however, there's been an uneasy confidence in the SNP that all the drama is confined to the political stage.
'Time of jeopardy'
Polls certainly suggest the SNP's dominance remains supreme.
Surveys suggest the levels of trust the public hold in Ms Sturgeon make other politicians jealous.
The intense political stress does not seem to be translating into the levels of public support.
Westminster Unionist politicians are following the events closely, but they don't hold out much hope that the saga will do anything other than knock the shine off the SNP.
But what was often dismissed as a "bubble story" by SNP advocates has burst.
Political pressure is building, from opposition parties and inside the SNP, especially as vital Scottish elections approach.
One senior ally of Ms Sturgeon believes that she will make it through, but admits, "we can't carry on like this".
Don't be mistaken, this is an extremely uncomfortable moment for one of our biggest political parties.
It is a time of jeopardy for one of our most powerful politicians.
Distracted governments don't tend to prosper. And, in the end, divided parties can forget how to win.