Police party investigation ups pressure on Boris Johnson

Downing Street may have officially "welcomed" the police inquiry into the shenanigans behind closed doors in No 10 during lockdown.

But what is likely to emerge in the next few days may be anything but welcome for Boris Johnson.

It is only the second time in a century that a serving prime minister has been part of a police investigation.

It is embarrassing, serious and could end up finding that some of the most powerful people in the country broke the law.

For a Conservative leader of the party that prides itself on being the guarantor of law and order, that is deeply uncomfortable.

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Before the police inquiry completes its work, Westminster and Whitehall is now braced for the results of the official inquiry into what went on, which could be published as early as Wednesday.

I'm told the report prepared by senior official Sue Gray, who pulls no punches, is essentially complete.

As I write late on Tuesday night, it is yet to be delivered officially to Downing Street, but Ms Gray is understood to be on the verge of submitting it.

She is also keen, I'm told, that the inquiry is published in its entirety with no summary, or redactions which could blur or mask some of its more pointed information.

The report is said to be full and frank, and is not expected to be easy reading either for the government, or the civil service itself.

It's understood that there has been no shortage of evidence, with photographs and Whatsapp messages passed to her.

Much of that evidence has over recent days been passed to the police, explaining why the Met concluded on Tuesday that it was important for them to publicly announce that they would also investigate.

Crunch time

A dispute over whether the publication of the inquiry report would have to be delayed caused a frenzy in Westminster on Tuesday.

But in the end, short of more twists in this bizarre and serious story, the report will be published very soon, quite separately and in advance of the police's conclusions.

Publication could be crunch time politically, because remember, many Tory MPs have been so angered and embarrassed by weeks of allegations that they have been pondering seriously whether it's time to call a halt to Boris Johnson's time in office.

For some of them, the report will give the cover they seek to make public their view that he ought to go.

For many others, who might see themselves as the reasonable rump of the party, the findings of the report and how Boris Johnson explains himself immediately after will be the deciding factor into whether they will continue to back him or not.

Toxic allegations

What they are acutely conscious of too is the reason why all the weeks of allegations have been so toxic.

It's not that Boris Johnson and his staff had a slice of cake, or shared a hunk of Cheddar in the Downing Street back garden.

It's because the impression has been created that while millions of members of the public were suffering because of the lockdown rules, those who had written and imposed them were not paying attention at all.

There is a strand of opinion in the Tory party and among the public too, that, as we discussed yesterday, it's ridiculous to consider removing a prime minister over people having a sausage roll or a gin and tonic when they weren't meant to.

Yet with the involvement of the police, a potentially bruising official inquiry and the broad public reaction reflected in the polls, there is no question that these are intensely difficult days for Downing Street, and a decisive 48 hours for Boris Johnson.