Police fines yet to pull rug out from under Boris Johnson
- Published
Rows of Tory MPs filed across Westminster Bridge on Tuesday for dinner with the PM
On any given evening, it would have been a strange sight to see several hundred Conservative MPs marching across Westminster Bridge, invited to dinner with the prime minister.
On the day that the first fines were announced, after weeks of political agonies over parties or gatherings that nearly sunk the party leader, it was bizarre indeed.
The fact that fines are being issued really matters as a bald fact.
It means that the laws that we all lived under during the pandemic were broken in the heart of government, at least 20 times.
Before any of the stories broke about what had gone on, it would have felt entirely shocking for that to be true.
It has, no surprise perhaps, led to the opposition parties renewing their calls for Boris Johnson to quit.
It has not, however, restarted the fire that was raging under prime minister - not yet.
Political priorities
First off, we simply don't know yet exactly who is in the frame.
In a reassuringly traditional, or perhaps frustrating, way, the fines have to wing their way to individuals through the post.
Downing Street has promised to go public if Mr Johnson or the cabinet secretary, the most senior official, is fined.
But aside from that, dozens and dozens of people could be found to have broken the law but their identities never revealed.
Until there is a pronouncement on the PM's own behaviour, his own MPs will hang fire.
And more crucially, for as long as the Russian invasion of Ukraine causes such profound concern, the government and Parliament's list of political priorities is very different.
No 10 says it will reveal if Boris Johnson gets fined
Yet, if or when Mr Johnson himself is found to have broken the law, or his critics have enough information to prove that he misled Parliament, the pressure he faced over partygate could suddenly roar back.
The PM knew the situation was precarious a couple of months ago. He fired some of his staff, promised to change, to listen more to backbenchers.
They have been publicly invited to be wined and dined by him - a not so subtle attempt to keep them onside.
Yet a change of heart over how MPs were expected to vote on a controversial issue earlier, around the prime minister's links with his friend Evgeny Lebedev (you can read more about that here), imply that Downing Street's touch with the backbenches is still not as deft as it might be.
The first batch of Met conclusions has not pulled the rug from under Mr Johnson. Tory MPs are not in the mood to contemplate, let alone act in any concerted way against him.
Yet those on the backbenches, who have both privately and publicly criticised him, wait and watch.
If the police's conclusions point at the PM directly, it will take more than a free dinner and a Kodak moment to keep them on board.