Keir Starmer's search for a vision goes on
- Published
Having not been brought down by a bottle of beer in Durham, Sir Keir Starmer is still leader of the Labour Party.
For the past few weeks, his advisers and strategists pored over ideas for a "big speech" to be delivered 48 hours after he was likely to be cleared.
They assumed this would be the moment that voters might look at him afresh.
And freed from the uncertainty over his political future - he had said he'd resign if fined - he could give a glimpse of what a Starmer government might look like.
But things didn't entirely go to plan.
Although he had called many times for Boris Johnson to go, he hadn't anticipated making his speech just as a Conservative leadership contest got under way.
So he had to devote some of his remarks to trashing his political opponents, and not just setting out Labour's positive vision.
But the latter task may prove to be the more important.
A former shadow minister who served under Sir Keir told me "people are giving us a look, but we need to seal the deal. We need to define our mission."
The three stages of leadership
Given the electoral mountain to climb, those who supported the Starmer leadership from the outset say his intention had always been to ascend the slippery political slopes in three phases.
Phase one was establishing that Labour was "under new management" and was competent.
This, if you like, would be the equivalent of attaining base camp.
It had been difficult to establish this while Boris Johnson dominated the airwaves with his pandemic press conferences.
But amid Partygate, Boris Johnson inadvertently helped the Starmer narrative of competence, with integrity thrown in as a bonus.
The trouble is, Sir Keir will soon face a new opponent.
At his speech on Monday, he attempted to get his retaliation in first by belittling the promises of unfunded tax cuts from some of the Conservative contenders.
Keir Starmer's leadership will enter a new phase when Boris Johnson leaves No 10
The second - and to an extent overlapping phase - was to "sort the party out".
Unsteadily at first, then increasingly strident, the process of de-Corbynisation was undertaken.
The EHRC report into anti-Semitism in the party further allowed Starmer to distance himself from the Corbyn era, with the Labour leader even suspending his predecessor from the parliamentary party.
With less publicity, some Left members who are seeking to become parliamentary candidates are being weeded out, with their social media histories being scrutinised with a fine-tooth comb
Even a candidate deemed safe enough to fight - and narrowly win - the high-profile Peterborough by-election in 2019 was not permitted to recontest the seat.
But some of those close to Sir Keir Starmer feel that fighting, and often winning, internal battles has now become too much of a "comfort zone" - and that he is not placing enough emphasis on the anticipated third phase of his leadership: the "forward offer" - his vision for a Labour Britain.
Indeed, in today's speech he suggested that just as he had sorted his party out, so would he fix Britain.
It's clear he still sees those internal reforms as a way of gaining more ground, as he continues his slog up that electoral mountain.
The search for substance - and a slogan
Keir Starmer's strategists have been impressed with how "Get Brexit Done" became a memorable political slogan that summed up Boris Johnson's election campaign.
The search for something as resonant for Labour hasn't quite succeeded.
Plenty of ideas have been kicked around, with one former frontbencher channelling Bill Clinton's adviser James Carville by saying Labour must focus on "the economy, stupid".
Slogans such as "Go for growth" have been bandied around behind the scenes.
But today, a rather longer formulation was settled upon: "Rebooting our economy; Revitalising our public services; and Re-energising our communities".
Interestingly, the Labour leader also pointed out that many of the party's plans for government were already in place.
He cited the example of the £28bn of planned "green investment" in reply to a media question following his speech.
But one shadow cabinet adviser told me this meant nothing to voters - and each practical element of Labour's plan needed to be spelled out, with specific answers on, for example, how many people will get their homes insulated for free, and their bills cut.
Labour is searching for a slogan with the resonance of the Brexit campaign
More generally, Keir Starmer not only denounced deregulation, but said economic growth wouldn't just come from redistribution and public investment.
One senior figure who served under Tony Blair felt that Keir Starmer had to be more bold.
He said: "I am not sure he has caught the zeitgeist. People do seem post-pandemic to want a state that lends a hand.
"We used to say 'the market where possible, intervention where necessary'. That was right at the time. Now we have to be able to say we'd intervene."
This was echoed by a former frontbencher who most certainly wasn't a supporter of the previous Labour leader.
He told me: "The cost of living crisis is real . My casework is through the roof. We need to be willing to intervene in the market to solve this".
But there was in today's speech perhaps a hint of blueprint for how Starmer could present a more radical vision.
He knows there is still a job to be done in convincing people that Labour can be trusted with the economy, and would spend public money wisely.
So he has pledged to say how he'd pay for Labour promises - and gave as an example how ending tax advantages for fee-paying schools - a popular policy for the Left - would be used to increase investment in state education. Radicalism wrapped in fiscal rectitude may be a tactic that's repeated.
The personal is political
Keir Starmer talked again about his own upbringing in his speech - making it clear he wasn't "born in to privilege".
But one shadow cabinet source felt that he should show voters more of the real Keir Starmer.
When he pledged to resign if fined, there was not unanimous agreement amongst his team that he should do so.
Some saw the risk of provoking a 'soft leadership' contest, with party members or voters comparing him - perhaps unfavourably - with some of the younger frontbenchers in his team.
While Labour has a healthy-looking lead in the polls, YouGov has been tracking responses each month to the question: "Do you believe that at the moment Keir Starmer does or does not look like a prime minister in waiting?"
The latest response suggested 22% of voters thought he did, while 58% did not - lower than in May 2020 during the pandemic, and when he had only just won the leadership.
So now that he is almost certain to lead Labour into the next election, the shadow cabinet source believes that "we need to see more of Keir's personality".
He said: "He is too cautious, and some of those around him are too controlling.
"He needs to let his guard down and let people see his character, his sense of humour - what he is like after a few drinks".
"Showing the person he is, making a connection, in the end will be more important than policy".
Looking Down Under
The shadow cabinet were recently treated to a presentation on the recent election victory of the Australian Labor Party.
The new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's lack of charisma wasn't seen as a problem, and his ditching of more radical policies bequeathed by his predecessor was seen as electorally helpful.
He was also aided - as Keir Starmer may be here by the Lib Dems - by a strong third party performance, in the shape of the pro-environment independents.
So perhaps the Labour leader here doesn't have to make dramatic adjustments to his pitch.
Asked at his press conference today if he was too boring, Starmer said that it was being in opposition that was boring.
But it feels like the task of exciting voters with a vision for government has only just begun.
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- Published8 July 2022
