Laura Kuenssberg: The super, never and only (while useful) fans of Boris Johnson
- Published
Judged a liar. Chucked out of the building. Condemned by colleagues.
You would think you'd want to crawl under the duvet and stay there for a good while after a massive public disgrace. Perhaps not Boris Johnson.
"He loves oxygen and he doesn't care about Parliament. Everyone is talking about him and he'll be delighted," suggests a former ally who knows him well.
And his remaining die-hard backers claim the verdict of the privileges committee, which investigated whether he deliberately misled Parliament over lockdown parties at No 10, is a vindictive strike against a politician loved by party members and much of the public.
Is that true?
When it comes to the public, the polls have suggested for many months that claim is tripe - to use Boris Johnson's terminology for the report into his conduct.
He did have an unusual ability to connect with voters. But he long ago fell out of favour with the public.
And what about inside the Conservative Party, that is again indulging in what seems like its favourite hobby, arguing with itself?
I've been talking to activists and MPs from around the country to test that out. Like in any big organisation there are differing views, but repeatedly, different sources describe three distinct groups.
One experienced party member describes the different tribes as Boris Johnson's "super fans, never fans, and only fans while he was an asset".
The reference to the Only Fans website - known for its adult content - may be a mischievous hint that perhaps there was a transactional element all along.
The super fans
This is the group for whom Boris Johnson is a political rock star.
Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries has made her views plain - warning that Conservatives who endorse the privileges committee's findings could be chucked out of their seats.
Another former cabinet minister told me there was such unhappiness the party might even split over how Mr Johnson has been treated.
A different senior backer told me their colleagues were totally underestimating the anger among members and Mr Johnson's magic ability to win, warning that "people are making a terrible mistake" which could undermine democracy.
The never fans
The howls of rage from the super fans are matched by massive sighs of relief from the "never fans".
One former president of the Conservative National Convention, the top brass of the voluntary party, told me: "I am so relieved he is gone - and really gone. Boris was never suited to the top job."
One Scottish activist said: "For goodness sake man, just go. If you really care about our party and our country then go quickly and quietly. You made your bed and you were caught lying in it."
Even if members do still have affection for Mr Johnson, this activist argues they "aren't who we need to appeal to" to win elections, saying the super fans are "delusional idiots".
Only fans
The biggest group by far however is those who were content to back Boris Johnson for as long as he was useful.
This is summed up by one activist who backed him as PM: "It was a transaction. At the time I absolutely realised and knew what his flaws were.
"But I took the view that you have to decide what is the bigger issue and it was keeping Corbyn out."
Another association chair in south-east England said his members absolutely do not want Mr Johnson back, apart from a few die-hards, telling me: "It's like when someone has had a really exciting but disastrous boyfriend, afterwards, you have a pang occasionally and you miss the excitement but you don't really want them back."
An activist in the Midlands who once backed him said: "Everyone liked him to start with and were willing to take a punt. He has smashed his credibility and his likeability."
One MP, in a constituency with one of the highest Brexit Leave votes, told me: "Practically nobody has got in contact. He's so popular he appears to have rendered my constituents incapable of using their fingers to tap out an email or pick up a phone - it's been staggering.
"It's like all those X Factor winners, one of their songs comes on and you think, 'oh yeah people actually used to love that'. Then you think 'but why?'."
Not so much the rock star any more.
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It is impossible to be scientific about the size of each group, but in each of my conversations it is clear the super fans are very definitely a minority.
One source calculates "you have gone from 70% being supportive of him to only around 20%", adding: "The sensible middle ground of members has definitely gone away."
Another party chair says only "10% of the grassroots are pro - who would actually want him back". There is a desire to move on, not just from the political melodrama, but also the era that Boris Johnson defined.
As one activist says: "What we need is Boris Johnson to go away. And most people want Covid and Brexit to go away. He represents both of those."
A regular peep at the Telegraph letters page would suggest its readers gave up on him months ago. If Boris Johnson is no longer tickling the tummies of the party's most traditional media backer then the notion he's still the Tory darling just does not hold.
There still is the possibility of a vote on the report into his conduct in the Commons on Monday.
Having promised to uphold integrity and accountability it is tricky for the prime minister to sit it out, but that does seem the most likely outcome. One minister joked: "He is likely to be many miles away."
And it's worth noting that Boris Johnson's camp has backed away from turning the vote into another bout of a fight it has already lost.
Watch: Key moments from Boris Johnson's Partygate grilling
His remaining supporters are not going to vote against the committee's findings, which would have been a way of protesting against what they saw as its vicious judgement.
It seems, realising the support might have looked embarrassingly paltry - maybe "20 votes on a good day" as one minister said - they now won't turn up at all.
There is evidence of some campaigning to make the vote count at the margins. Tory website the Conservative Post is encouraging MPs to vote against the report, along with circulating some wild claims that the committee ignored the rule of law.
Separately, the Liberal Democrats have been making hay in local media, demanding their Conservative rivals vote to endorse the verdict that Johnson lied. If they don't, you can imagine they'll use that to try and embarrass their opponents.
But neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are at the moment planning to force a vote to endorse the report. It may therefore go through "on the nod", where MPs do not have to vote, sparing Tory blushes.
There is a small irony in MPs not even bothering to vote on the departure of the most prominent politician of his generation. Alternatively, it tells you all you need to know.
But however messy his exit, the end of the Johnson era is prompting questions about what he leaves behind.
Some Conservatives - including the never fans and the only fans - just want to see the back of Boris Johnson
Rishi Sunak is yet to sketch out a bold, new canvas. His brand - and it very much is a brand - is designed to create an impression of quiet competence rather than create fireworks.
The risk - or maybe the reality - is that's created a sense of quiet drift.
One of the activists I spoke to said this "is the beginning of whatever will be the story after the election" - assuming Rishi Sunak will lose - and "it is going to be brutal and nasty - you can see the various wings in the party already beginning to manoeuvre themselves".
One of the other members just wants the Conservatives to concentrate on what the public needs: "I just feel what people want to talk about on the doors is health and the cost of living."
As the pressures of rising mortgage costs in particular become horrifyingly clear, the Conservative Party - already well behind in the polls - can ill-afford another week like this.
It is not clear yet how much trouble Boris Johnson wants to cause. Will he use his new newspaper column to sledge Rishi Sunak at every opportunity? Or actually, as he did yesterday, confine himself to writing about battles with his weight?!
That seems vanishingly unlikely. Whatever he chooses to do there is a sense that the Conservative Party is exhausted by it all. Years of drama. Years of fighting. Years of its majority being spent on arguments with each other.
One of the activists I spoke to warned of a spreading sentiment: "More than half the grassroots are just disillusioned - too apathetic to campaign, too apathetic to vote, some talking about spoiling ballot papers."
Whether super fans, never fans, or only fans, Conservatives have to deal with the legacy of Boris Johnson.
But after all the drama, all the political pain and adrenalin mixed in, they may have to confront the horror of apathy too.